Friday, July 31, 2020

Summertime Hockey

Slowly but surely, the sports world is getting back to normal.  Yes, it's without fans in "hub cities," but the NHL is set to resume with its first-ever 24-team Stanley Cup tournament.  And I've gotta say, I've been impressed by what I've seen so far.  The arenas are set up beautifully and the teams look less rusty than I thought.  Most importantly, we're gonna have wall-to-wall hockey for a few weeks as they whittle down the field.

After the first exhibition games, there were some complaints about the ice conditions in Toronto.  But that's to be expected when you're playing hockey in August.  Maintaining the ice will be key, especially during those noon games, but I don't think is gonna end up being too much of a worry once the games get underway.

I also have to say that I really like some of the things they're doing on the broadcasts.  I'm not 100 percent sure, but it looks like the main camera is closer to the ice.  I think it's in the concourse instead of the press box.  That's obviously something they can only get away with because there are no fans, but it makes it seem a lot more intimate.  You almost forget it's an empty arena.  And the hockey version of the NFL SkyCam is awesome!  I hope that thing sticks around!

Anyway, what I thought when they announced the format for the restart and what I still think now after seeing at least some of most of the exhibition games, it really is anybody's tournament.  They've all had four months off and now immediately have to go into playoff mode, all while dealing with all of those foreign outside factors (living in a bubble, playing in an empty arena, playing in the summer).  Normally it comes down to the team with the hottest goalie, but I think it could come down to who best handles the unusual situation that ultimately ends up lifting the Cup.

Eastern Conference Seeding Games: Boston won the President's Trophy, but, I don't know, there's something about the Bruins that I'm just not feeling.  I think they'll end up dropping to the 3-seed after the round robin.  The Capitals look like they didn't miss a beat, so I've gotta make them the team to beat in the East.  And Tampa Bay simply has too much fire power.  I can even see the Flyers beating the Bruins during the round robin, but I'll keep Boston at 3 and Philadelphia at 4.

Penguins vs. Canadiens: Frankly, Pittsburgh looked like the better team in the Flyers-Penguins exhibition game.  And they'll roll right over Montreal.  The Canadiens are probably the weakest of the 24 teams that got to continue the season.  I don't anticipate this series being close.  Penguins in three.

Hurricanes vs. Rangers: This series, on the other hand, is perhaps the most competitive of the eight in the first round (maybe Calgary-Winnipeg, maybe).  Part of the reason for that is the fact that the Rangers very realistically can win it.  It would surprise no one if they did.  They were on a roll when the regular season ended and finished only two points behind Carolina, which was the difference between No. 6 and No. 11, showing just how tight the Eastern Conference standings were at the end.  Rangers in five.

Islanders vs. Panthers: It's weird.  The Panthers were right there in that mix and actually ended up with a higher seed than the Rangers because of points percentage, but I rank Florida closer to Montreal than the other Eastern Conference playoff teams.  And I see them having very little chance of beating the Islanders in a best-of-five.  Islanders in four.

Maple Leafs vs. Blue Jackets: Outside of Rangers-Hurricanes, this is the Eastern Conference series I'm looking forward to the most.  Because Toronto and Columbus are very evenly matched (hence the 8 vs. 9 matchup).  However, the Maple Leafs are one of only two teams in the NHL that has the luxury of playing at home, and I think that'll make a huge difference.  For all the unfamiliar everyone will have to deal with, they'll get to use their own locker room and, even though they won't have a home crowd to cheer them on, will have home ice advantage for the entire series.  Which could end up being a huge factor.  Maple Leafs in four.

Western Conference Seeding Games: Unlike their 2019 Stanley Cup Final opponent, the St. Louis Blues do look like the no-doubt-about-it best team in the West.  In fact, I'd even be willing to tab the Blues as the overall favorite.  The battle for the No. 2 seed out West will be interesting, though.  Because you don't want to be No. 4 and have to deal with Edmonton.  For arugment's sake, I'll just rank them 2-Golden Knights, 3-Avalanche, 4-Stars, but, frankly, the second-best team in the West might be the Oilers.

Oilers vs. Blackhawks: As if the Oilers didn't already have the advantage against Chicago, that edge only grew when they found out that they'll be playing all of their playoff games on home ice.  Every!  Single!  One!  They'll make quick work of the Blackhawks, then beat whoever ends up as the No. 4 seed.  Oilers in three.

Predators vs. Coyotes: Arizona being in the playoffs is just weird to think about.  Alas, the Coyotes' postseason run will likely be a short one.  Nashville has the longest active playoff streak in the Western Conference (six years and counting), and it's not crazy to think the Predators have a deep run in them.  Arizona may get a game.  It would be great if they do.  But there's no way they're getting three.  Predators in four.

Canucks vs. Wild: Finally, we get to a Western Conference series that has a chance of being competitive!  And this one could be all about which team gets hotter sooner.  I can see a back-and-forth series that ends up going five, but I can also see each of them winning in three.  Since Minnesota has the better goalie in Devan Dubnyk (as well as Mats Zuccarello), I'll give them the nod in the slight upset.  Wild in four.

Flames vs. Jets: Again, you could probably flip a coin here.  On paper, Calgary is probably the better team, but only slightly.  Winnipeg has had that recent playoff success, though, so we'll see if that can carry them.  However, even though the games are being played in Edmonton, not Calgary, it's still Alberta, so there's gotta be a certain comfort level for the Flames.  Although, I'm sure it'll also be weird to play in Rogers Place and not have thousands of Oilers fans booing them from the second they take the ice to the second they leave it.  Nevertheless, I'm taking Calgary in a tight series.  Flames in five.

Not having to play the extra round is going to be such a huge advantage for the top four seeds in each conference.  While everybody else has to get into playoff mode right away, they have the three round robin games to get into playoff mode before things really amp up.  Yes, those games are still important, but it's a different kind of important.  Other than Edmonton, I don't see any of the teams playing in the Qualifiers making a deep playoff run (which is usually the trademark of the Stanley Cup Playoffs). 

The Stanley Cup Playoffs are always crazy.  Now you throw in all of these other factors, and this year's edition could be even crazier.  The teams that managed their unplanned four-month break better will be the ones that have the advantage.  But in the end, I think the last two champions (Washington and St. Louis) will survive the madness and duke it out for the Cup.

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