There's no denying that the NL East is the most competitive division in baseball. You could pencil the Marlins into the five-spot, put the other four in a hat, pull them out, and that could very well end up being the final standings. And you could do it again, get different results, and those could be the final standings. Basically what I'm saying here is that those four teams are pretty much interchangeable. The differences between them are that slim.
That was also the case last season. All the buzz was about the Phillies and their offseason additions. They ended up missing the playoffs. The Braves won the division for the second straight year, but lost to St. Louis in the playoffs. And the Nationals lost Bryce Harper, started 19-31, and ended up winning the World Series. Oh yeah, and the Mets had both the Cy Young winner and Rookie of the Year.
With the short season and the DH in play, the NL East figures to be even more of a crap shoot in 2020. You can make a legitimate case for any of those top four teams as the division champion. The Braves and Phillies both got significantly better, while the Mets and Nationals still have their dominant pitching.
Whoever ends up winning the division isn't going to run away with it. In fact, I can see this being a four-way race all season. And, just like how the Orioles won't be competitive but will still be relevant in that they'll have a say in who wins the AL East, the Marlins will have a major bearing on who wins the NL East. The team that goes 8-2 against Miami will probably make the playoffs. The team that goes 5-5 likely won't.
1. Atlanta Braves: As competitive as this division figures to be, I've still gotta give the two-time reigning NL East champs the slight edge. The Braves lost Josh Donaldson but still have the deepest lineup in the division. And that's even without Nick Markakis, who opted out of this season (he probably wasn't going to play that much anyway), or possibly Freddie Freeman, who missed the start of Summer Camp with COVID. They just added Yasiel Puig, too, which makes their lineup that much deeper.
Pitching-wise, Atlanta has at best the third-best rotation in the division. Which isn't to say it's bad. They've got a very good 1-2 in Mike Soroka and Mike Foltynewicz, and basically swapped Dallas Keuchel for Cole Hamels, which gives them three solid starters. But, their rotation still isn't anywhere near the same caliber as the Nationals or Mets. If the Braves don't win the division, their pitching will likely be the reason why. Either way, they look like a playoff team, though. Their goal should be to finally get out of the Division Series.
Projected Lineup: Ozzie Albies-2B, Dansby Swanson-SS, Ronald Acuna Jr.-RF, Freddie Freeman-1B, Marcell Ozuna-LF, Yasiel Puig-DH, Johan Camargo-3B, Travis d'Arnaud-C, Ender Inciarte-CF
Projected Rotation: Mike Soroka, Mike Foltynewicz, Cole Hamels, Max Fried, Sean Newcomb
Closer: Mark Melancon
Projected Record: 34-26
2. Philadelphia Phillies: Let's be clear about something regarding the 2019 Phillies. It's not Bryce Harper's fault they didn't make the playoffs. Yes, his contract is ridiculous, but he played 157 games and put up his regular Harper-esque numbers. Personally, I blame Gabe Kapler. He simply isn't a good manager. Joe Girardi is, so that's an obvious upgrade in that department. The addition of Didi Gregorius and a healthy Andrew McCutchen will help, too. So will the DH, since that's the only position Jay Bruce should be playing at this point in his career.
Philadelphia also improved its pitching staff by bringing in free agent Zack Wheeler, who gives them four solid starters, a must in this pitching-rich division. The questions are in the bullpen, though. Regardless, a competent manager is going to work wonders for this team. The Phillies knew they weren't far off and plugged in the few holes they had, while handing the reins to a manager who actually knows what he's doing. That should be enough to add up to a playoff spot, even in the NL East.
Projected Lineup: Andrew McCutchen-LF, J.T. Realmuto-C, Bryce Harper-RF, Rhys Hoskins-1B, Jay Bruce-DH, Didi Gregorius-SS, Jean Segura-2B, Scott Kingery-3B, Adam Haseley-CF
Projected Rotation: Aaron Nola, Zack Wheeler, Jake Arietta, Zach Eflin, Nick Pivetta
Closer: Hector Neris
Projected Record: 33-27 (Wild Card)
3. Washington Nationals: Be honest. Did anybody think last season would be the year the Nationals finally won? They've always had the dominant pitching, but last year's when it all came together, despite losing their best position player. This year, they lost their best position player again, and they've had an inordinate number of players opt out due to health concerns. But a repeat is still possible (as long as they don't start 19-31 again). Why? Because they've got the best pitching in the game.
They missed out on re-signing Anthony Rendon, in part because they were more concerned with keeping World Series MVP Stephen Strasburg in DC. Mission accomplished. Strasburg stayed put and that ridiculous 1-2-3 remains in tact. And, since the season is starting three-and-a-half months late, we also don't have to wonder how much of a bearing all of those postseason innings will have on their arms. Better still, they're only making 12 starts each, so they can let it loose from the get-go. As long as Max, Stras and Corbin (the best No. 3 starter in baseball) stay healthy, the Nats will be in the postseason discussion. All they need to do is hit a little.
Projected Lineup: Trea Turner-SS, Adam Eaton-RF, Juan Soto-LF, Eric Thames-1B, Howie Kendrick-DH, Carter Kieboom-3B, Starlin Castro-2B, Victor Robles-CF, Kurt Suzuki-C
Projected Rotation: Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, Patrick Corbin, Anibal Sanchez, Austin Voth
Closer: Sean Doolittle
Projected Record: 32-28
4. New York Mets: Other than maybe the Dodgers, was there any National League team better equipped to add the DH than the Mets? Last season, they had about 11 starters that they were trying to cram into eight lineup spots, and ended up playing some guys out of position just to get their bats in the lineup. That didn't even include Yoenis Cespedes, who will likely fill the DH spot. If the Mets can keep all these guys healthy, they'll have the hitting to match their dominant pitching.
Even without Noah Syndergaard, their starting rotation is among the best in the game. And losing Syndergaard actually saved them from making a tough decision, since they otherwise would've had six starters for five rotation spots. It all starts and ends with Jacob deGrom obviously, but the guys behind him aren't exactly slouches. And the bullpen is much improved, with Dellin Betances moving across town to give them another power arm in front of Edwin Diaz. With all this pitching talent and a deep lineup, the Mets certainly have all the makings of a playoff team. As long as they keep everyone healthy.
Projected Lineup: Jeff McNeil-3B, Brandon Nimmo-CF, Pete Alonso-1B, Robinson Cano-2B, Yoenis Cespedes-DH, Michael Conforto-RF, J.D. Davis-LF, Wilson Ramos-C, Amed Rosario-SS
Projected Rotation: Jacob deGrom, Marcus Stroman, Rick Porcello, Steven Matz, Michael Wacha
Closer: Edwin Diaz
Projected Record: 31-29
5. Miami Marlins: The Marlins are starting to move in the right direction. There's definitely some more talent in Miami this season than there was in 2019. Their problem, however, is the fact that the other four teams in the division are significantly better than them. So, if they manage to finish anywhere other than last place, it'll be considered a major achievement.
Sandy Alcantara is a legitimate No. 1 starter, even he's the fifth-best No. 1 in the division. No. 2 Caleb Smith isn't bad, either. And their lineup is going to be much deeper with the addition of former Brewers Jesus Aguilar and Jonathan Villar. That's why I think the Marlins are in slightly better shape than their closest comparison--the Orioles. Miami has some veterans to mix in with those young guys like Brian Anderson and Lewis Brinson. They'll be bad. There's no denying that. But they'll give one of the four teams above them fits, so the Marlins are going to have a very big role in determining the NL East champion.
Projected Lineup: Lewis Brinson-CF, Jonathan Villar-3B, Jesus Aguilar-DH, Brian Anderson-RF, Corey Dickerson-LF, Garrett Cooper-1B, Jorge Alfaro-C, Miguel Rojas-SS, Isan Diaz-2B
Projected Rotation: Sandy Alcantara, Caleb Smith, Pablo Lopez, Jose Urena, Jordan Yamamoto
Closer: Drew Steckenrider
Projected Record: 22-38
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