When it comes to the NL West, there's no use even pretending. The Dodgers are so clearly ahead of the pack, and everybody knows it. They've won the division every year since 2013, and there's no reason to think they won't make it eight in a row this season. In fact, I don't think I'm going too far out on a limb to say they've got a shot at breaking the Braves' Major League-record 14 consecutive division titles.
While the Dodgers' sole focus is on ending their 31-year championship drought, the rest of the division is fighting for respectability. There may be an outside shot at a wild card for the second-place finisher, but I think we're more likely looking at each of them hovering around .500. So, the NL West will be competitive in a different sense.
I can't even say which of the other four is "most likely" to give the Dodgers a run for their money. Because LA is in a completely different league! For anyone else to even have a chance, it'll require a ridiculous start on their end and a complete meltdown by the Dodgers. While the first part of that scenario could happen, the other half seems incredibly unlikely.
1. Los Angeles Dodgers: You didn't think they traded for Mookie Betts to have him just for one season, did you? It's really kind of unfair how many young stars the Dodgers have. And none of them are going anywhere! Things are going so good in LA (relatively speaking) that they optioned Garret Lux, a popular preseason pick for NL Rookie of the Year, to their secondary camp. And after trying to trade Joc Pederson across town only to have the deal fall through, they add the DH to the NL this season, giving the Dodgers a chance to start all four of their outfielders!
David Price was also included in the Betts trade, announced he won't be pitching this season, and it hardly matters. Because the Dodgers still have about eight starting pitchers, one of which is a future Hall of Famer who many don't even consider their ace anymore (but he'll still make the Opening Night start!). And they back up that rotation with a bullpen that was once considered a weakness, but is now a potential strength. Even if Kenley Jansen misses time after his coronavirus positive, they've got former Oakland closer Blake Treinen ready to step in. Yeah, this team is only thinking about October.
Projected Lineup: Mookie Betts-RF, Chris Taylor-2B, Justin Turner-3B, Cody Bellinger-CF, Max Muncy-1B, Corey Seager-SS, Joc Pederson-DH, A.J. Pollock-CF, Will Smith-C
Projected Rotation: Clayton Kershaw, Walker Buehler, Alex Wood, Julio Urias, Ross Stripling
Closer: Kenley Jansen
Projected Record: 38-22
2. San Diego Padres: About two months ago, pandemic boredom and lack of sports finally got to me and I downloaded "Out of the Park Baseball." You choose your team and each "game" is the season. I played as the Dodgers once and actually ended up finishing second in the NL West, mainly because I couldn't beat the Padres (I was something like 4-15 against them and went winless in San Diego)!
That's not the only reason why I'm picking the Padres to finish second this season, though. Talent-wise, I think San Diego does have the pieces to end its streak of 10 consecutive losing seasons. They didn't make the flashy free agent signing this winter. Instead they went the trade route, getting Tommy Pham from Tampa Bay. More importantly, though, they've been quietly building an outstanding bullpen anchored by Kirby Yates. And I really like No. 1 starter Chris Paddack, too. Plus, the brown is back!
Projected Lineup: Tommy Pham-LF, Jurickson Profar-2B, Manny Machado-3B, Fernando Tatis Jr.-SS, Eric Hosmer-1B, Wil Myers-DH, Trent Grisham-CF, Francisco Mejia-C, Josh Naylor-RF
Projected Rotation: Chris Paddack, Dinelson Lamet, Garrett Richards, Zach Davies, Joey Lucchesi
Closer: Kirby Yates
Projected Record: 30-30
3. Arizona Diamondbacks: Apparently, in Arizona, one Marte is better than two. Because they went out and got Starling from the Pirates to patrol center field, which allows them to move Ketel back to his natural position of second base. They also have like four guys who should be DHs, so being able to put one of their bats in the lineup while not having to worry about their defense will be a good thing for a Diamondbacks team that figures to score its share of runs.
Although, having a DH also means Madison Bumgarner, one of the few pitchers in baseball who actually can hit, won't get to. Watching Bumgarner in a Diamondbacks jersey will definitely be jarring at first glance and will absolutely require some getting used to. But he does give them the No. 1 pitcher they lost when they traded Zack Greinke in the middle of a game (that he started!) last season. Bumgarner's not the same pitcher who single-handedly won the World Series six years ago, but he's still an above-average Major League starter, so it was a good signing. More importantly, it keeps Robbie Ray in the No. 2 spot for which he's much better suited.
Projected Lineup: Ketel Marte-2B, Nick Ahmed-SS, Christian Walker-1B, Starling Marte-CF, Eduardo Escobar-3B, Jake Lamb-DH, Kole Calhoun-RF, Carson Kelly-C, David Peralta-LF
Projected Rotation: Madison Bumgarner, Robbie Ray, Luke Weaver, Zac Gallen, Merrill Kelly
Closer: Archie Bradley
Projected Record: 29-31
4. Colorado Rockies: It's the same old story in Colorado. Lots of offensive stars who'll score a lot of runs, but not enough pitching depth. Which isn't meant as a swipe at German Marquez, Jon Gray and Kyle Freeland. Pitching in Denver has been tough for the nearly 30 years they've been around. I don't see these guys being able to hold opponents under 4-5 runs a game, though. Which means they're gonna need to rely on their hitters to win games 7-5, and that's a tough thing to ask every night.
Nevertheless, Nolan Arenado is a legitimate superstar, and he anchors a middle of the lineup that can compete with anybody's. That's true even without Ian Desmond, who'll be sitting out the season. Although, I'm curious to see if Charlie Blackmon will show any ill-effects of having had the coronavirus. And the DH, which almost certainly would've been Desmond's spot, gives them the chance to move some guys around. Although, don't be surprised to see Ryan McMahon end up playing first most of the time, pushing Daniel Murphy into the DH role.
Projected Lineup: Trevor Story-SS, Charlie Blackmon-RF, Nolan Arenado-3B, David Dahl-CF, Daniel Murphy-DH, Ryan McMahon-1B, Tony Wolters-C, Raimel Tapia-LF, Garrett Hampson-2B
Projected Rotation: German Marquez, Jon Gray, Kyle Freeland, Antonio Senzatela, Jeff Hoffman
Closer: Wade Davis
Projected Record: 26-34
5. San Francisco Giants: Doesn't it seem like a lifetime ago when the Giants won the World Series in every even-numbered year? Things will really be different in San Francisco this season with the last two links to that championship era gone. Madison Bumgarner is in Arizona, while Buster Posey is one of the more prominent names who has decided not to play this year.
Even the manager is different for the first time in 14 years, with Bruce Bochy retiring after last season. They've brought in Gabe Kapler to replace him, which is a curious choice if you ask me. Kapler found himself in over his head way too many times to count during his two seasons with the Phillies, so it seems odd that he was given another Major League managing job right away. Although, there will be significantly less pressure to win with a young Giants team that's not expected to be very good. Maybe that's enough of a difference and Kapler will end up proving to be a good hire. Either way, this season doesn't seem to be very pretty in San Francisco.
Projected Lineup: Billy Hamilton-CF, Mike Yastrezmski-RF, Evan Longoria-3B, Hunter Pence-DH, Brandon Belt-1B, Alex Dickerson-LF, Brandon Crawford-SS, Mauricio Dubon-2B, Tyler Heineman-C
Projected Rotation: Johnny Cueto, Jeff Samardzija, Kevin Gausman, Drew Smyly, Logan Webb
Closer: Tony Watson
Projected Record: 25-35
And what is this crap about there still possibly being expanded playoffs for this season?! I though that ship had sailed. Now, all of a sudden, they want to do it again? The day before the season starts? Come on!
Anyway, I'm going to assume that the expanded playoffs falls through, just like it did throughout the entire three months of initial negotiations. So, my postseason picks are going to reflect only the standard two wild cards in each league (not the ridiculous five). Either way, regardless of how many wild card teams there are, the two best teams are clear. Whether they played 60 games or 162 games, my World Series pick wouldn't have been any different.
AL Wild Card: Rays over Angels
ALDS: Yankees over Rays, Astros over Twins
ALCS: Yankees over Astros
NL Wild Card: Cubs over Phillies
NLDS: Dodgers over Cubs, Braves over Cardinals
NLCS: Dodgers over Braves
World Series: Dodgers over Yankees
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