Tuesday, July 28, 2020

Don't Hit the Panic Button...Yet

Baseball returned this weekend, and it was glorious!  It didn't matter that there were no fans in the stands (outside of cardboard cutouts) or that the broadcasts were being done remotely.  People who've been craving the return of live sports got them back, bringing some sense of normalcy back to a world that has been turned completely upside down over the past several months.

The honeymoon period lasted a grand total of three days.  On Monday, the very situation that many people feared became a reality when it was announced that the Miami Marlins had an outbreak within their team, resulting in the postponement of the Marlins' series against the Orioles.  Since the Marlins had just finished a series against the Phillies, Philadelphia's series against the Yankees was also called off as a precaution.

That development has been described as a "worst-case scenario" by fans and critics alike.  The term "It's over," was even tossed around, as if to imply there's no possible way for MLB to successfully complete the season amid the Marlins situation.  However, while it's admittedly not good, it's way too early to think of this as a doomsday scenario.  MLB certainly isn't.  And they shouldn't.  Because it is too early.

This wasn't a completely unexpected situation.  MLB released its incredibly detailed "return to play" plan, which included the protocols for what should be done if there was an outbreak among an entire team.  That includes the COVID-specific injured list and the 30-player taxi squad at each team's alternate site who could be called up to the Big League club at any moment should they be needed.  The hope above all hopes was that these precautions would be enough for them to be able to continue the season with as little disruption as possible even if the virus took out an entire team.  Which, of course, is exactly what happened.

However, it looks like things are isolated to the Marlins.  Consider all of the other teams that they've been in contact with, either directly or indirectly, and you can see why there's no need to take the nuclear option.

They most likely contracted it during their trip to Atlanta for an exhibition game.  The Braves have had a few cases, including losing both of their Opening Day catchers, but it so far hasn't been widespread among the team.  Atlanta then traveled to face the Mets to open the season.  The Mets have all tested negative.  And, outside of one staff member, no one on the Phillies has tested positive, either.  So there's no reason to think this goes beyond the Marlins clubhouse.

And, frankly, a lot of the blame here falls directly on the Marlins' shoulders.  After the first handful of positives on Saturday, they evidently voted as a team to play the game on Sunday anyway.  That obviously should not have happened.  And that irresponsible, reckless decision only exacerbated the problem.  Who knows how many more players were exposed because of that?

What this means, though, is that MLB needs to be much stricter on enforcement.  Among the many pandemic-related policies in place this season, players aren't supposed to high-five or spit, among many other actions that have become second-nature.  Yet on Opening Weekend, there was plenty of high-fiving and hugging, with nobody there telling them not to, so it seems unlikely there will be any sort of punishment coming their way.

It's a similar situation here.  MLB finds itself in this position because the rule for positive tests only applies to individual players.  The Marlins voted to play without those players anyway, which they were well within their rights to do, but knowingly put the Phillies in harm's way as a result.  So maybe that's something they need to revisit.  It shouldn't be left to the teams' discretion whether or not they play.  MLB should make that decision for them, especially in a case like this.

As a result, MLB has created quite a headache for itself.  It was already gonna be tough to play 60 games in 66 days.  Now they have one team completely out of commission for a week, which obviously impacts the schedules of their opponents, as well.  It seems virtually impossible for the Marlins to get all 60 games in.  How will they handle that at the end of the season, especially if it has a bearing on the postseason (which would apply more to Miami's opponents than the Marlins themselves)?

Some people have criticized MLB for opting to have teams play at their home ballparks instead of utilizing a "bubble."  This situation has only added fuel to their criticism.  The argument is that traveling around the country and going home every night exposes them to more risk and, thus, increases the likelihood of this exact scenario.  They may be right.  But, again, you can't point to this as an example that the MLB plan was "wrong" either.  There simply isn't enough evidence of that.

Don't forget that the "bubbles" aren't exactly impenetrable either.  Nashville had its first game in the MLS Is Back Tournament postponed after several players tested positive, then was removed from the tournament entirely.  Dallas was also withdrawn before the tournament even started.  But two teams weren't enough to shut down the whole thing, and MLS simply proceeded with the remaining 24 clubs.

Unfortunately, Major League Baseball doesn't have that same option with the Marlins.  They can't simply continue the season with 29 teams as if nothing had happened.  That would wreak total havoc on a schedule that's already been completely upended!  (Which I guess is another argument for the critics to use.)

There's one other important factor to keep in mind here, too.  We're talking about one of 30 teams.  There have been cases on pretty much every team, which was expected, but none of the other 29 has had a Marlins-sized issue (at least not yet, and hopefully not at all).  Why should they suffer because of one teams' stupidity?  Especially when 20 of them will have no interaction with the Marlins this season?

Postponing the Marlins-Orioles and Yankees-Phillies series, as well as the Marlins' weekend series against the Nationals, was the right decision.  They didn't really have a choice, especially with the safety concerns and the necessary precautions they had take.  And the Nationals were hesitant to travel to Miami (rightfully so), so it wouldn't have been right to ask them to under the circumstances.  This also gives the Marlins some extra time to figure things out on their end before resuming the season.

Is this bad?  Of course!  Is this the exact situation Rob Manfred was hoping NOT to have to deal with, even though he knew he almost certainly would at some point?  Absolutely.  But to suggest MLB needs to take the nuclear option is premature.  If anything, it's a reminder call that getting through this already unprecedented season is going to be extremely difficult.  It served as a wake-up call for MLB and all 30 teams.  Hopefully they all get the message.

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