Friday, August 21, 2015

World Championships Picks (Women)

Yesterday I took a look at what I think will happen during the World Championships on the men's side, and today it's time for the women.  Just like the men's meet, there's going to be plenty of great head-to-head matchups in the women's events.  I also think this could be a record haul for the United States.  The American team is loaded, and there are medal chances in a number of events that you wouldn't normally expect.  From Emma Coburn in the steeplechase to Jenny Simpson and Shannon Rowbury in the 1500

We've also got Allyson Felix running the 400 instead of the 200, where Oregon senior Jenna Prandini is the U.S. champ.  Prandini's one of many new faces that's invading Beijing for Worlds, but we'd better get used to them.  Because we'll probably see at least some of them next year in Rio.  And and Worlds for years to come.

Now for the projections...

100: Shelly-Ann Fraser-Pryce (JAM), Blessing Okagbare (NGR), Tori Bowie (USA)
SAFP is the defending champ in both the 100 and 200, but she's decided to only run the 100 here.  She also won the 100 at the last major meet to be held in Beijing.  It should be a golden return to the Bird's Nest for the 2008 Olympic champion.

200: Dafne Schippers (NED), Shaunae Miller (BAH), Murielle Ahoure (CIV)
With Fraser-Pryce and Felix both deciding not to run the event, the 200 is going to be wide open.  And I think the person who'll go bursting through that door is Dafne Schippers, the former heptathlete turned top sprinter in Europe.  She's the best in the field, so she should add a World Championship to her European title.

400: Allyson Felix (USA), Christine Day (JAM), Christine Ohurougu (GBR)
One of the reasons Felix decided to run the 400 is because she's never won it at Worlds.  The only other time she ran the 400 was in 2011, when she was edged at the line by Botswana's Amantle Montsho (who's currently serving a doping ban).  Felix made the U.S. team at the expense of Francena McCorory, who has the fastest time in the world this year, knocking out the likely winner.  As a result, I think Felix adds another World title, and first in the 400, adding to the speculation about whether or not she'll try to double in Rio.

800: Eunice Sum (KEN), Selina Buchel (SUI), Alysia Montano (USA)
There are so many women that have run sub-2:00 this season, that this is going to be a wide open race.  Since Sum is the only one in that group under 1:57, I guess that makes her the nominal "favorite."  Alysia Montano has come close to medaling at the last two Worlds, and this time I think she will get bronze.  If Ajee Wilson was healthy, gold would've been possible for her.

1500: Genzebe Dibaba (ETH), Jenny Simpson (USA), Shannon Rowbury (USA)
Genzebe Dibaba set the world record a few weeks ago, so it's really a question of if anyone will be anywhere close to her.  Simpson has gone gold-silver at the last two World Championships, Rowbury won bronze in 2009, and which one will be the top American is another intriguing question.

5000: Almaz Ayana (ETH), Viola Kibiwot (KEN), Mimi Belete (BRN)
It's possible that Dibaba will double, and if she does, it's not a stretch to say she'll win double gold.  But I'm not sure she's actually going to run both, so I'm going with her countrywoman Almaz Ayana.

10,000: Geleta Burka (ETH), Vivian Cheruiyot (KEN), Alemitu Heroye (ETH)
The top four seeds are all Ethiopian, and I can definitely see a sweep as possible.  American Shalane Flanagan is the top-seeded non-Ethiopian, and she won bronze (soon to be upgraded to silver) in this event at the Beijing Olympics.

Marathon: Sairi Maeda (JPN), Mare Dibaba (ETH), Mariya Konovalova (RUS)
Mare Dibaba has the fastest time in the world by more than two seconds, but, like I said with the men, marathons are unpredictable, so I don't think a victory is by any means guaranteed.

Steeplechase: Hiwot Ayalew (ETH), Habiba Ghribi (TUN), Emma Coburn (USA)
If the World Championships had been last year, there's no doubt Coburn would've won the first-ever American medal in the women's steeplechase.  It's not a lock this year, but I still think it's likely she'll end up on the podium.  She probably won't challenge for gold, though.

100 Hurdles: Dawn Harper Nelson (USA), Sharika Nelvis (USA), Tiffany Porter (GBR)
Sally McLellan broke her wrist on a nasty fall at a Diamond League meet in June and is out for the season.  That means the 100 hurdles will likely be won by an American.  Which one is anybody's guess.  Tiffany Porter, whose husband Jeff, won silver in the men's 110 hurdles at the 2013 Worlds, could crack the podium.  So could her sister, Cindy Ofili, the NCAA champion at Michigan.

400 Hurdles: Zuzana Hejnova (CZE), Shamier Little (USA), Kori Carter (USA)
Shamier Little is one of the up-and-coming stars in track & field.  She's already won the NCAA, U.S. and Pan Am titles this year, and a World Championships medal seems likely.  I think defending champ Zuzana Hejnova will take the gold here, but the Olympic gold next year will be Little's to lose.

High Jump: Anna Chicherova (RUS), Ruth Beitia (ESP), Maria Kuchina (RUS)
Oh man, am I looking forward to the women's high jump!  This is gonna be a great competition.  We've finally got all of the world's best healthy and in one place.  You could really put the top 8-10 names in a hat, pull out three, and they could easily be your medalists.  The women's high jump is that deep.

Pole Vault: Yarisley Silva (CUB), Nikoleta Kyriakapolou (GRE), Jenn Suhr (USA)
Two years ago, Yelena Isinbayeva's win in the women's pole vault was probably the defining moment of the Moscow Worlds.  She isn't competing this year, but the event isn't lacking anything without her.  After Silva, the rest of the top five are separated by two centimeters, so the battle for silver and bronze will be intense.

Long Jump: Tianna Bartoletta (USA), Brittney Reese (USA), Christabel Netty (CAN)
Brittney Reese seemingly wins every major championship in the women's long jump, but I think that streak's about to end.  Bartoletta's been the world's best all year, and by a wide margin.  Since Reese is a massive big meet performer, I'll give her the silver.

Triple Jump: Ekaterina Koneva (RUS), Caterine Ibarguen (COL), Olga Saladukha (UKR)
Koneva has won silver at the last two major championships (2013 Worlds, 2014 Euros).  This time I see her finally climbing to the top step of the podium.

Shot Put: Gong Lijiao (CHN), Cleopatra Borel (TTO), Christina Schwanitz (GER)
Valerie Adams has dominated the women's shot put for longer than I can remember.  But she's out injured, so somebody else gets to win a World Championship this year.  And Gong might be China's best hope for a gold medal on the women's side.

Discus: Sandra Perkovic (CRO), Denia Caballero (CUB), Dani Samuels (AUS)
In the discus, it'll probably be two different competitions.  Perkovic vs. Caballero for the gold, and everyone else battling each other for bronze.

Hammer Throw: Anita Wlodarczyk (POL), Betty Heidler (GER), Wang Zheng (CHN)
Wlodarczyk is one of the biggest favorites of the meet.  She set a world record that wasn't ratified this year, then went out a couple weeks later and officially broke the mark.  That throw was 81.08 meters.  Heidler has the second-best mark in the world this year--75.73.

Javelin: Kim Mickle (AUS), Sunette Viljonen (RSA), Barbora Spotakova (CZE)
Little did I know, American Kara Winger actually has a real shot at a medal here.  She enters Worlds with the third-best mark in the world this year.

Heptathlon: Brianne Thiesen-Eaton (CAN), Jessica Ennis-Hill (GBR), Katarina Johnson-Thompson (GBR)
One of the most anticipated events will take place over the first two days of the meet--the battle of the hypens in the heptathlon.  The Eatons are looking for an unprecedented husband-wife multi-event double, and they could easily do it.  Because Brianne's chances of winning are just as good as Ashton's.

20 Kilometer Walk: Liu Hong (CHN), Lu Xiuzhi (CHN), Svetlana Vasilyeva (RUS)
Just like the men's walk, a 1-2 Chinese sweep is definitely a possibility here.  Especially with the Russians, who are typically very strong, embroiled in the doping controversy.

4x100 Relay: Jamaica, United States, Russia
On the men's side, the U.S. has finally figured out a way to beat Jamaica in the 4x100.  But in the women's relay, I just think the quartet the Jamaicans throw out there will be better than the American foursome.  And Jamaica will have the stronger anchor leg in Shelly-Ann Fraser-Pryce.

4x400 Relay: United States, Jamaica, Great Britain
McCorory didn't qualify for the open 400, but she's in Beijing to run on the relay, which she'll likely anchor.  Russia won this event in Moscow, but won't have a home crowd behind them this time.  As a result, I think we go back to normal, with McCorory or Allyson Felix or whoever bringing home an American victory.

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