Thursday, August 20, 2015

World Championships Picks (Men)

It's almost that time!  A time that comes around once every other year.  The Track & Field World Championships are about to start.  The world's finest return to Beijing for the first time since the 2008 Olympics, which are best remembered as Usain Bolt's coming-out party.  This time Bolt returns to Beijing hoping to strike lightning again, but he'll face some stiff competition from Justin Gatlin.  The two haven't squared off over 100 meters in two years.  That's entirely too long.  And their battle in Beijing should be one of the highlights of the meet.

We've also got the report of those failed drug tests from 2005 and 2007 lingering over the World Championships, with the worry that they'll name names and it'll be names of those competing in Beijing.  Hopefully the competition is so good that we're talking about doping for only the first couple days before the stories of the Championships take over.

Since track & field is my favorite Olympic sport, I always have an interest in the World Championships, and the intensity is amped up that much more in the pre-Olympic Worlds.  With less than a year to go until the Olympics, what happens in Beijing could be a great indicator of what we'll see next year in Rio.

With 47 events spread over nine days, there's a lot of track & field on the horizon.  My preview will be split up into two parts.  Today, picks for the men's events, with a breakdown of some of the key ones (or the ones I'm looking forward to the most).  Tomorrow, I'll do the same thing with the women.

100: Justin Gatlin (USA), Usain Bolt (JAM), Keston Bledman (TTO)
The long-anticipated Bolt-Gatlin showdown comes at the scene of Bolt's greatest triumph.  I think the reason they haven't raced each other is because Bolt has been ducking Gatlin.  He knows he'll beat him.

200: Usain Bolt (JAM), Alonso Edward (PAN), Justin Gatlin (USA)
In the 200, it's a different story.  It's Bolt's baby, and he's still the best in the world over the distance.

400: LaShawn Merritt (USA), Kirani James (GRN), Wayde Van Niekerk (RSA)
Isaac Makwala of Botswana has the best time in the world this year, but Merritt and James are the battle-tested veterans.  One of them will come out on top.

800: David Rudisha (KEN), Nijel Amos (BOT), Mohammed Aman (ETH)
No, Nick Symmonds won't be running.  There was no chance he's gonna medal anyway.  Everybody's here this time, which wasn't the case when Symmonds won silver two years ago in Moscow.

1500: Asbel Kiprop (KEN), Taoufik Makhloufi (ALG), Nick Willis (NZL)
Really a toss-up here.  Kiprop's the favorite and has the top time in the world this year, but there's really like five or six guys in the mix for the medals.

5000: Dejen Gebremeskel (ETH), Yomif Kejelcha (ETH), Hagos Gebrhiwet (ETH)
Four of the top five seeds are Ethiopian, so I can definitely see a sweep here.  The real question is whether American Ben True can medal.

10,000: Mo Farah (GBR), Paul Tanui (KEN), Geoffrey Kamworor (KEN)
Farah has evidently been cleared of any wrongdoing, but I think it's a mistake to let Alberto Salazar coach him in Beijing.  Nevertheless, the top three in this event are a cut above the rest of the field.

Marathon: Wilson Kipsang (KEN), Ghirmany Ghebreselassie (ETH), Stephen Kiprotich (UGA)
As usual, what's going to happen in the marathon is anybody's guess.  Way too many variables at play to make a pick with any certainty, but I'll take 2014 New York City Marathon winner Wilson Kipsang.

Steeplechase: Brimin Kiprop Kipruto (KEN), Ezekiel Kemboi (KEN), Evan Jager (USA)
American distance running is the best its ever been.  As evidence by the fact that Evan Jager is the No. 2 seed and favored to win a medal in this typically Kenyan-dominated event.

110 Hurdles: David Oliver (USA), Omar McLeod (JAM), Aleec Harris (USA)
Defending champion David Oliver is the best in the world.  It's not even close.  I'll be shocked if he doesn't win again.

400 Hurdles: Bershawn Jackson (USA), Michael Tinsley (USA), Javier Culson (PUR)
Can the Americans sweep?  And which one will win the gold?  This is one of the strongest events for the American team, but I like Pan Am silver medalist Culson to break through for bronze.

High Jump: Muttaz Essa Barshim (QAT), Bohdan Bondarenko (UKR), Zhang Guowei (CHN)
Barshim and Bondarenko had one of the great duels at the 2013 World Championships.  While the men's high jump hasn't been anywhere near as hot this year as it was then, I'm looking forward to the two of them going at it again...with Zhang also thrown into the mix.

Pole Vault: Renaud Lavillenie (FRA), Raphael Holzdeppe (GER), Shawn Barber (CAN)
Yelena Isinbayeva set a world record in the women's pole vault in Moscow.  Will Lavillenie set one on the men's side in Beijing?  Amazingly, he's never won a World Championship.  That should change here.

Long Jump: Jeff Henderson (USA), Marquis Dendy (USA), Greg Rutherford (GBR)
Henderson won at Pan Ams and has the best jump in the world this year.  He's the best of a not-spectacular field.

Triple Jump: Pedro Pablo Pichardo (CUB), Christian Taylor (USA), Will Claye (USA)
This has taken over from the high jump as the hottest men's field event.  Triple P against a quartet of Florida Gators.  It's probably between Pichardo and Taylor for gold, with the other three Americans fighting for bronze.

Shot Put: David Storl (GER), Joe Kovacs (USA), Asmir Kolasinac (SRB)
For some reason, David Storl always seems to come up big at the World Championships.  This is an event traditionally dominated by the Americans, but Storl somehow manages to win every time.

Discus: Piotr Malachowski (POL), Jason Morgan (JAM), Christoph Harting (GER)
Robert Harting is injured and not here, but his brother Christoph will have a chance at upholding the family name.  Problem is Piotr Malachowski has been the best in the world this year by a wide margin.

Hammer: Pawel Fajdek (POL), Krisztian Pars (HUN), Dilshod Nazarov (TJK)
If there's a bigger favorite on the men's side than Pawel Fajdek, I don't know who it is.  This guy has dominated the hammer throw for so long now, I don't even remember the last time somebody else won something,

Javelin: Keshorn Walcott (TTO), Julius Yego (KEN), Tero Pitkamaki (FIN)
Oh, how the times have changed.  Kenya and Trinidad & Tobago are the top two seeds in the javelin.  The best shot the Europeans, the event's traditional powers, have is for bronze.

Decathlon: Ashton Eaton (USA), Trey Hardee (USA), Damian Warner (CAN)
Ashton Eaton hasn't completed a decathlon since Moscow.  That doesn't really matter, though.  He's head and shoulders above everyone else.  And that includes Trey Hardee and Damian Warner.

20 km Walk: Wang Zhen (CHN), Yusuke Suzuki (JPN), Chen Ding (CHN)
China's best chance at winning a gold medal on the men's side is probably in the 20 km walk.  Wang, Chen and Cai Zelin all have a shot at the gold, and a medal sweep is possible.

50 km Walk: Matej Toth (SVK), Hirooki Arai (JPN), Aleksandr Yargunkin (RUS)
Toth has the best time in the world this year by almost six seconds.  Think about how long that is in the race walk!  With most of the Russians who could've challenged him involved in the doping controversy, he should have a 50 km leisurely stroll through the streets of Beijing.

4x100 Relay: United States, Jamaica, Trinidad & Tobago
I don't want to sound overly optimistic, but I think the U.S. has finally found the secret to beating Jamaica in the 4x100.  They beat them at the World Relays in the Bahamas in May, and if they follow the same formula, a World Championships victory won't be too far behind.

4x400 Relay: United States, Bahamas, Jamaica
To say that the United States has dominated this event over the years would be an understatement.  With all four Americans likely to make the final of the individual 400, as well as 400-hurdlers who are just as capable in the relay, it shouldn't be any different in Beijing.

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