Friday, June 26, 2015

Quarterfinal Time In Canada

Before we embark upon the quarterfinal round of the Women's World Cup, a few observations about the tournament so far.  In my opinion, Japan has clearly been the best team in the tournament to this point.  The defending champs are the only team to have won each of its games.  France got a wake-up call from Colombia and is definitely peaking at the right time.  Germany and the U.S. haven't played anywhere near their best soccer yet, but they've both gotten to the quarters as expected.  Canada will continue to benefit from being the hosts, but I don't think they're good enough to win the World Cup.

As for the U.S., I'm really getting tired of hearing everyone complaining about the fact they aren't scoring.  So what!  Have they lost a game yet?  And it's been how long since they've allowed a goal?  I'm pretty sure if you don't give up any goals, you only need to score one.  So what exactly is the problem?  They'll be the first ones to admit that they can play better.  They know they have to step up their game.

But it really is kind of insulting to them to compare them to previous U.S. World Cup teams.  Maybe the games are closer because the rest of the world has gotten better.  Has anyone ever thought of that?  And if we're comparing them to the 1999 team next Sunday night, why does it matter how they got there?  By the way, that defense is good enough to win the World Cup.

There was something else in the USA-Colombia game that really bugged me, though.  This isn't a complaint about the U.S., but it's really about soccer in general.  The Americans had two penalty kicks in the game.  The first came after the Colombian goalie got the red card for taking out Alex Morgan's legs on the breakaway.  The second was about 10 minutes later when Megan Rapinoe was fouled in the box.  Yet Abby Wambach took the first PK and air mailed it (must've been that damn turf), while Carli Lloyd took and made the second one.

I've always thought that the person who earns the penalty kick should be the one to take it, and I'm kind of confused as to why that's NOT the rule.  It makes little sense to me.  That would be like a basketball team choosing its best free throw shooter to shoot for the guy who got fouled all the time.  The person who earns the penalty kick deserves the opportunity to finish what they started.  I'm sure there's a reason why the current rule is in place, and if somebody understands why it's like that, please enlighten me, but I don't see my opinion changing on that.  It also leads to some inflated scoring totals.  How do you think Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo score so many goals with their club teams?  It's because they take every freakin' penalty kick, no matter who draws the foul.  And as we all know, a goalie's only real chance of stopping a PK is getting lucky.

And with that, time for my quarterfinal predictions.  The quarters start in Montreal with the best matchup of the four--No. 3 France vs. No. 1 Germany.  Both of these teams have clinched berths in the Olympics, and whoever wins is going to be quite a handful for the U.S. in the semis.  Germany had a dominant round of 16 game against an uninspired and underwhelming Swedish team, while the French have looked better and better since their loss to Colombia.  This will probably be the game of the tournament so far.  Germany is the better team and has an extra day of rest, but that's negated by the fact France has already played in Montreal and didn't have to travel.  France has won its last two games by a combined score of 8-0, while Germany has outscored its last two opponents 8-1.  This one will be decided by the defense, though, and I think the Germans have a slight edge in that department.  It might go to PKs, but I'll say 2-1 Germany.

Quarterfinal number two pits the USA against China for the first World Cup meeting between the two since that memorable afternoon at the Rose Bowl 16 years ago.  The big story surrounding the Americans, of course, is that Lauren Holiday and Megan Rapinoe will both have to sit out with yellow card suspensions (and Abby Wambach just sounded like an idiot when she said the referee singled them out because they already had yellows, especially since she gave a red to the GOALIE from Colombia in the game, too).  As a result, there will be some lineup changes in the midfield and that vaunted American depth will be tested.

Personally, I'd go from a 4-4-2 to a 4-3-3 for this game.  When it was just Holiday out, I had Carli Lloyd as the only center mid, but since she's the only player who can come close to replacing Rapinone's athleticism and playmaking, I'd move her out to the wing instead.  Christen Press goes back into the lineup because she's the best player who didn't start against Colombia, and she's technically a forward, but they can play her on the wing, as well.  Morgan Brian goes back in at center mid because they need someone to play there and Shannon Boxx can't give you 90 minutes, so she's better coming off the bench.  Unless you want to tighten up that defense even more and go with Christie Rampone as a fifth defender (which would move Ali Krieger up into more of a midfield position).

Will the U.S. miss Holiday and Rapinoe?  Absolutely.  They've been two of their best players in the World Cup.  But it's better to have them this game rather than the semi against Germany or France.  I'm not saying China's an easy matchup.  They know not to overlook the Chinese.  But they're good enough to beat China even without two of their most important starters.  I smell another 1-0 victory, then Holiday and Rapinoe are back for the semis.

The big upset of the round of 16, obviously, was Australia over Brazil.  I'm not sure what the Brazilian coach's problem was in his postgame press conference (he was obviously frustrated, which is probably where most of it was coming from), but it was yet another World Cup disappointment for a squad that will now have even more pressure on it at the Olympics.  The Aussie victory was great for Japan.  A Japan-Brazil matchup would've been a must-see.  Japan-Australia is nowhere near as compelling.  Which is good news for Japan.  Australia's had a great World Cup, but they're no match for the defending champions.  They did Japan a tremendous favor, which will be repaid with a 3-0 Japanese victory.

Then we have Canada and England.  I thought England was outplayed for much of the game against Norway, but they scored twice in the second half, including that golden strike by Lucy Bronze.  Canada played yet another 1-0 game against a Swiss team that had so many chances that they just couldn't convert.  The winner here will be the underdogs against Japan.  But you've got the home team playing a real home game.  The Canadians train in Vancouver and didn't have to travel after their last game.  I think they keep riding that home field advantage into a Canada Day semifinal meeting with the defending champions.  Canada 1, England 0.

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