As we enter Wimbledon, which this year for the first time is starting three weeks after the French Open instead of two, there's one overriding story line. With that gutsy performance in Paris, Serena Williams won her third straight Grand Slam title. So, should she win Wimbledon, she'll be the reigning champion at all four, completing the second "Serena Slam" of her career.
Right after the French Open, the talk almost immediately turned to Serena and whether or not a Wimbledon victory would constitute a Grand Slam. A lot of people have argued "No," insisting that it can only be a Grand Slam if it's achieved in a calendar year. I say why should that make a difference? Winning all four in a row is a Grand Slam, no matter what order you do it in. Is it any less of an accomplishment to start with the U.S. Open and end with Wimbledon?
I understand that when the term "Grand Slam" was coined, it was because Don Budge won all four in the same year in 1938, and you're only technically considered to do it if it's in the same year. When Serena did it the first time, she started at Wimbledon in 2002 and ended at the 2003 French Open. Since it was two in one year and two in the next, it was dubbed the "Serena Slam" instead, which is also what we'll call it this time. Meanwhile, Serena's friend Martina Navratilova never won the "Grand Slam" either, despite winning SIX consecutive Grand Slam titles in 1983-84 (three each year when the Australian Open was played in December instead of January, although she cost herself a chance at a calendar year Grand Slam when her 70-match winning streak was snapped in the 1984 Australian Open semifinals).
My point is that it doesn't really matter what we call it. It'll be a pretty damn impressive feat if Serena Williams wins her fourth straight Grand Slam title at Wimbledon, where she'll be the heavy favorite. And if she does, it really won't matter. Because if she wins Wimbledon, she's winning the U.S. Open. There's no doubt in my mind.
Her 2014-15 Serena Slam and 2015 Grand Slam are most at risk here. Serena's last Grand Slam loss, after all, was here a year ago, when she was upset by Alize Cornet in the third round, and she lost in round of 16 to Sabine Lisicki in 2013. In fact, you have to go back to the 2012 Olympic gold medal match to find Serena's last championship moment on Centre Court.
The biggest contender for the ladies' title who doesn't have the last name Williams has got to be defending champion Petra Kvitova, who's seeded second. If any other woman is going to win this championship, Kvitova would be my choice. I see her in the finals against Serena, but not standing in the way of history.
Others to watch out for include Venus Williams, who could end up meeting Little Sister in a must-see round of 16 match. Maria Sharapova, of course, is a former Wimbledon champion, while Lucie Safarova beat her at the French en route to the finals. I actually like Vika Azarenka to make a deep run too, although she'll run into Serena in the quarters. Caroline Wozniacki is in a pretty tough section of the draw. Third-seeded Simona Halep was a semifinalist last year, but I really like the two Germans in that part of the draw, Angelique Kerber and Sabine Lisicki. Another fun little side note is that their could be a rematch of last year's final between Kvitova and Genie Bouchard in the quarters.
We were also expecting Novak Djokovic to be halfway to a Grand Slam right now, too, but, after doing the World a favor and knocking Rafael Nadal out of the French Open, he was upset in the finals by Stan Wawrinka. This is Wawrinka's weakest Slam, though, so I don't expect him to be a challenger. But that doesn't mean a Swiss guy won't be among the favorites. At this point in his career, I think we can all agree that this is Roger's best (perhaps only) to lift another Grand Slam trophy.
Roger's Grand Slam foil, Tomas Berdych, is hanging around in his quarter, though, and the winner of that one gets the survivor of Murray-Nadal. After letting somebody else win the French Open for a change, Nadal's ranking is the lowest it's been in years, and he's seeded 10th here. However, he caught a break with the draw, staying away from the other three until the quarters (a round of 16 meeting was possible). David Ferrer was the highest seed in Nadal's section of the draw, but he withdrew today, so 10th-seeded Nadal has become the high seed in that section.
Nadal has two Wimbledon titles, but he's also become notorious for losing early here. With the draw he has, I don't see it happening this year. Murray, meanwhile, has to play Tsonga before the potential Nadal matchup, and I think that can go either way. I do have Murray winning, though, and beating Nadal to get back to the semis. I'd just automatically pencil Roger opposite him if he wasn't playing Berdych, who has his number in Grand Slams. In the Murray-Berdych semi, I've got the hometown hero advancing to the final Sunday one more time.
Fun fact: Andy Murray has only ever played Roger Federer or Novak Djokovic in Grand Slam finals (kinda like how Andy Roddick only won one Grand Slam title because he always played Federer in the finals). Since he can't play Roger, I guess that means defending champion Djokovic, who beat Roger in that classic final last year, will meet Murray in the finals. I don't see any issues for Djokovic early in the tournament. He gets the chance to avenge his U.S. Open loss to Kei Nishikori (provided he wins the rematch of the U.S. Open final with Marin Cilic) in the quarters, then could meet Grigor Dimitrov or Milos Raonic, both of whom have a game that translates well to grass, in the semis. Either way, Djokovic's half of the draw is much easier. I expect him to cruise to the finals, where he beats Murray to defend his title.
Before we go, this year's Wimbledon is a special anniversary. It's been five years since the John Isner-Nicolas Mahut epic. Isner is seeded 17th here and is always a threat because of his serve, but has underwhelmed at Wimbledon since those historic three days. Even still, he could easily be a Djokovic quarterfinal opponent. Mahut, meanwhile, needed a wild card for entry (I'm not sure if he was given one because of the match or the deal between the British and French Tennis Federations). He should win his first round match against Filip Krajinovic before a possible showdown with Berdych.
We waited an extra week for the start of this year's Wimbledon, which I think was a good thing. With that extra week to rest and make the adjustment from clay to grass, the players will be in much better shape for the tournament, and the result should be a much more competitive event. But, that extended break was the same for everybody, including Serena Williams and Novak Djokovic. The favorites will come out on top, and for Serena, that means she'll be three-quarters of the way to history.
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