Here we go. After seven long months away, the NFL is back. And since the NFL is back, so too are my weekly NFL picks.
Things, of course, got started the other day with the Seahawks in the traditional Super Bowl champion Thursday night opener, but this is the first Sunday of football games that count. And, also in true NFL tradition, most of the better games in Week 1 are reserved for the national TV slots. Nevertheless, we've got almost a full slate of Sunday games (13 to be exact). The NFL didn't make it easy for us either. I had a hell of a time choosing my Survival game. Because a lot of these matchups, while they have a clear favorite, feature two good teams and could easily go either way.
I also have a confession to make. I'm not sure how much football I'm going to watch on Sunday. We've got Derek Jeter Day and Serena vs. Woz in the US Open final. If not for Red Zone, my only option at 1:00 would be Jets-Raiders, so thank God I have more football choices than just that. But with Peyton vs. the Colts on Sunday night, you know I'll at least be watching that one.
Thursday Night: Seattle (Win)
Saints at Falcons: New Orleans-The Falcons aren't as bad as their record last year indicated. That was the result of simply too many injuries to key personnel to overcome. We'll immediately get to see if this season will be more like 2012 or more like 2013, as they open the campaign against the rival Saints. New Orleans is one of that handful of teams that has to be considered a legitimate Super Bowl contender. I've gotta think the Saints start 1-0.
Bills at Bears: Chicago-This is the first game that is affected by the new TV deal. Since the Bills are the visiting team, this game would normally be on CBS. But it'll be on FOX instead to balance out the games between the networks. Anyway, the Bears usually wait until November/December to throw away their season. In September and October, they usually look like a playoff contender. I don't see them losing to Buffalo at home.
Titans at Chiefs: Kansas City-This is one of those tough ones I was talking about. On paper, Kansas City should win it easily, but I don't think the Chiefs are as good as they were last year and the Titans might be a little bit better. Nevertheless, I don't think Tennessee has made up the gap enough to expect to come out of Kansas City with a win.
Vikings at Rams: St. Louis-The team that was most affected by a preseason injury is, obviously, the St. Louis Rams, who'll be without Sam Bradford for the year. That took away any chance they had at contending in the loaded NFC West, but playing Minnesota at home in Week 1 at least gives them a chance to get the season started on a winning note.
Patriots at Dolphins: New England-If there's one team in the AFC East that actually has a chance at ending the Patriots' dominance, it's the Dolphins. And they can certainly make a statement by making New England start the season in last place. This is a tough assignment for Brady and Co. in Week 1, especially considering it's a 1:00 game and that notorious September Miami heat. I think the Patriots know the potential pitfalls, though. I just don't see them letting a chance at making an early statement get away.
Raiders at Jets: Jets-I feel bad for my fellow New Yorkers who don't have NFL Red Zone. Because they don't have another option at 1:00. Of course, there are also some Jets fans who don't care they're playing the Raiders and will be more than happy to see them start the season 1-0.
Jaguars at Eagles: Philadelphia-After much deliberation, I ended up going with this matchup as my Survival game. The Eagles were a playoff team last season, and there's no reason to think they're going to drop off. Nor is there any reason to think they're going to lose at home to the Jaguars.
Browns at Steelers: Pittsburgh-If you've watched CBS at all in the past six weeks, you know the Steelers are playing the Ravens on Thursday night. Psst, CBS, you've got a bunch of games on Sunday first. One of those games also involves Pittsburgh--against rival Cleveland. I see the Steelers going into that Thursday night matchup 1-0.
Bengals at Ravens: Cincinnati-As for the Ravens, I don't think they'll be 1-0 going into that Thursday night showdown. Baltimore is favored in this game, but I'm taking Cincinnati in the upset. The Bengals have made the playoffs in each of the past two years and look just as strong this season. And they absolutely caught a break by going to Baltimore while Ray Rice is suspended. That's why I give the edge to the Bengals.
Redskins at Texans: Houston-This is another tough one. Both of these teams won their division in 2012 and underachieved last year. Except for the Texans, that was more a result of injuries. Washington had injuries, too, but I think there 2012 success was more lightning in a bottle. The Texans are definitely more equipped to make a run back to the top. Plus, they're the better team.
49ers at Cowboys: San Francisco-Remember when this was the can't miss matchup of every NFL season? We get a little bit of that feeling back with Dallas and San Francisco meeting in the national game at 4:30 on FOX. San Francisco's becoming a staple of this game, although this is the first time in two years they aren't playing Green Bay. It's also weird to not see the Cowboys not in the opening Sunday night game. As for the winner, I'll go with the team that's looking to make its fourth straight NFC Championship Game appearance.
Panthers at Buccaneers: Carolina-The other late game is in Tampa Bay, as the Panthers visit the Bucs. Carolina was the breakout team of last season, while Tampa Bay is a chic pick to be this year's breakout team. Lovie's definitely going to get them going in the right direction, but the NFC South is simply too good. Maybe if the Bucs win this game, I'll be more accepting of them as an NFC South contender. My gut tells me the defending division champs get it done, though.
Colts at Broncos: Denver-Last season, in Peyton's well-publicized return to Indianapolis, the Colts controlled the game and handed Denver its first loss of the season. As a result, Indy remains the only team Manning has never beaten in his career. The Broncos' most recent memory, of course, is of that debacle at Giants Stadium known as Super Bowl XLVIII. Now they finally get a chance to move on from that game. And Peyton finally gets his chance to beat the Colts, who'll play a game without the owner that fired Manning watching for the first time in 30 years. This game is made even more important because it could very well determine home field should they meet again in January (in fact, I've got this as my AFC Championship Game matchup). (I have another Week 1 matchup, Packers-Seahawks, as my NFC Championship Game.)
Giants at Lions: Giants-The first Monday night game is quite a matchup. The Giants and Lions can both probably be viewed as having an outside chance at the playoffs. When they played last year, it was effectively the Giants that knocked the Lions out of the playoffs with a Week 16 win in Detroit. It's Week 1, so it's obviously not a "must-win" game, but I think it's an important one for both as they look to get out to a good start. The Giants always play well against the Lions and they're a good road team, so they're the pick.
Chargers at Cardinals: Arizona-Week 1 concludes with the two best third-place teams from last season squaring off. The Chargers, of course, snuck into the playoffs on the final day, while the Cardinals ended up on the outside looking in despite going 10-6. Both have realistic thoughts on getting there this season, so this is another important Week 1 matchup. Since San Diego doesn't usually turn it on until later in the season, I'm going Cardinals at home. (The weird thing about this game is that these two concluded the preseason against each other, so they're meeting for the second consecutive week.)
This Week: 1-0
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