Tuesday, September 30, 2014

Baseball Playoff Preview

Before I start, I'd like to reiterate that my preseason pick to win the World Series was the Dodgers.  I could've sworn I said Dodgers-Tigers back in March, but I just went back and checked it and saw that I actually had Detroit losing to Texas in the ALCS.  Whoops!  (For the record, I correctly called four of the five NL teams, missing only with the Braves, who I had instead of the Pirates, but only went 2-for-5 in the AL, hitting with Anaheim and Detroit.)

Anyway, I meant to say Dodgers-Tigers six months ago, and I don't see any reason to go any different way now.  I simply think LA and Detroit are the two best teams...and they're both built for October.  So, instead of leading up to the big reveal, the World Series pick came at the beginning.  As for how I think the rest of October will go...

AL Wild Card: The Royals are such a great story.  It's so good to see them in the playoffs for the first time in nearly 30 years.  As for the A's, it's almost too generous to say they limped into the playoffs (I can't say into October, since they technically might not even make it to October).  I guess that's what they get for preparing for the playoffs in July and trading their cleanup hitter for absolutely no reason.  At least they're not going to have to worry about losing Game 5 to the Tigers!  Speaking of trading Cespedes, Jon Lester gets the ball in the Wild Card Game.  This is why Oakland got him.  But Kansas City is countering with James Shields, which is the reason they got him.  Combine that with an absolutely electric crowd and a team that actually played well down the stretch, and I think we see the Royals moving on to play the Angels.

ALDS: Kansas City winning the Wild Card Game would be good for the Angels.  Because I think Oakland is more inclined to give Anaheim a series than the Royals would be.  That assessment is based simply on pitching depth.  That Oakland rotation is probably better than Anaheim's, which has very little behind Jered Weaver and C.J. Wilson (especially with Garrett Richards out).  The Royals, though, wouldn't be able to use Shields until Game 3.  Regardless, the Angels are better than both the Royals and the A's, so I think they win the series either way.  Let's say they sweep Kansas City or beat Oakland in four.

Tigers-Orioles is interesting.  Because Detroit's strength is its pitching and Baltimore's strength is its hitting.  I don't care that the Tigers won "only" 90 games or that they're starting the series on the road.  They're built for the postseason, even more so that they have David Price now.  Their rotation is so deep that Anibal Sanchez will likely head to the bullpen in the playoffs.  Baltimore led the Majors in home runs and was the kings of the walk-off (maybe that was just against the Yankees), but runs are always harder to come by in the playoffs.  The Tigers have won a Game 5 in Oakland in each of the last two years.  This year Game 5's in Baltimore, but I don't see the result changing.

ALCS: It's in the ALCS that the Angels' pitching will hurt them.  Because the Tigers have a definite advantage in that department.  Plus, an Angels-Tigers ALCS would give us the added fun of Cabrera vs. Trout live on the field.  This is the Angels team everyone was expecting when they got out and signed Albert and Josh Hamilton.  But you also have a sense that the Tigers know their window is closing.  They've won four straight division titles, but only been to the World Series once (and got swept).  And if they don't go this year, I have a feeling they might blow the whole thing up this offseason, when Max Scherzer will be a free agent.  Plus, I'd really like to see Torii Hunter in the World Series.  As for a number of games, let's play it safe and say Tigers in six.

NL Wild Card: I'd love to say I see the Pirates doing the trick two years in a row, but I honestly can't.  Pittsburgh burned Gerrit Cole on Sunday, while San Francisco is riding its horse, Madison Bumgarner.  The Pirates have been the better team since the All-Star Break, but the Giants are probably the better team overall.  I'm Bumgarner wasn't pitching, I'd probably say Pittsburgh, but his presence on the mound gives the edge to San Francisco.  Besides, it's an even-numbered year.  The Giants win the World Series in even years.

NLDS: If any team in the National League is going to stop the Dodgers, it'll be the Nationals.  Washington's better than it was two years ago, when they got upset by the Cardinals in the Division Series.  Jordan Zimmermann was an All-Star who threw a no-hitter yesterday...and he's their Game 3 starter.  It's an uphill climb for whoever comes out of that Wild Card Game.  Neither one of them has the horses to hang with the Nationals.  San Francisco probably has a better chance with Bumgarner and Tim Hudson, but I think Washington has a pretty easy time with either one.  Nationals in four.

You know the Dodgers wanted home field very, very badly.  If only because it meant playing the wild card winner instead of the Cardinals.  LA was better than St. Louis last year, but the Cardinals won the NLCS.  On the other hand, that might be a good thing.  Because Clayton Kershaw wasn't very good in that series, and the last thing St. Louis needs is the best pitcher in baseball to have extra motivation.  St. Louis is throwing Wainwright against him in Games 1 & 5, and the Cardinals annoyingly win in the playoffs every year.  If you want to get them, you're better off facing them in a five-game series.  And with Kershaw and Greinke throwing three of those five games, I like the Dodgers' odds of doing just that.  LA in five.

NLCS: This was my preseason call for NLCS, and they're far and away the two best teams in the National League.  I hope it happens, too.  Because it has the potential to be an epic playoff series.  (And because it would finally end the San Francisco-St. Louis back-and-forth cycle.)  They've both got excellent pitching, they've both got excellent hitting, and they've both got pretty good stories.  The Expos/Nationals franchise has never been to the World Series (one of only two teams that hasn't), while, amazingly, it's been 26 years since the Dodgers have been there.  Like the Tigers, the Dodgers have come agonizingly close over the past few seasons, only to come up short.  Not this year.  By just a hair, I'll take Kershaw, Greinke, Hanley and Puig over Strasburg, Gio, Harper and the Zimmerman(n)s.  Dodgers in seven.

World Series: Justin Verlander deserves a chance to get back to the World Series and finally earn a win on baseball's biggest stage.  He's 0-3 all-time in the Fall Classic, and the Tigers won just one game against the Cardinals (2006) and Giants (2012).  Verlander was the best pitcher in baseball a few years ago.  Now that title belongs to Clayton Kershaw.  And, regardless of what the final standings said, the Los Angeles Dodgers are the best, most complete team in baseball.  For both the Dodgers and Tigers, it's World Series or bust.  Unfortunately, only one of them can win.  I've thought all season that the Los Angeles Dodgers would be that team.  Not only do the Dodgers have the dominant starting pitching, they have an advantage none of the other National League teams would have in the World Series.  Their four outfielder problem won't be a problem in the World Series.  Because all four of them can play.  Insert Ethier at DH and the lineup becomes that much deeper.  The Tigers, meanwhile, would definitely be hurt by the lack of a DH at Dodger Stadium.  Because they'd have to figure out a place to put Victor Martinez (left field?) or lose his bat entirely.  That's enough to make a difference.  The Dodgers win the World Series.  In six.

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