When I did my AFC preview the other day, I put Indy in the AFC Championship Game pretty much by default because they're probably the second-best team in the AFC. The only team in the AFC that has a legitimate chance at winning it all, in my opinion, is Denver.
That's not the case in the NFC, which has clearly emerged as the stronger conference. In the AFC I had trouble finding six playoff teams because I didn't think there were enough that are that good. I've got the opposite problem in the NFC. So many good teams that six doesn't seem like enough (don't worry, we've got that unnecessary playoff expansion coming next year). And the legitimate Super Bowl contenders in the NFC are almost as numerous: Seattle, Green Bay, New Orleans, San Francisco, Philadelphia, Carolina, and I'm sure I probably forgot somebody, too. Just making the playoffs in the NFC this year is going to be an achievement.
East: What was once the NFC Beast has become the NFC Least. It's not that the NFC East has become weak. It's just that the other three divisions are loaded with good teams while the East isn't. I think the NFC East will play out in a similar fashion to the way it has the past couple seasons. Three of the four will hover around the 9-7/10-6 mark, and only the division winner will end up in the playoffs as these four rivals kill each other six times. And it'll probably be the division record that decides it. The slight edge I would say probably has to go to Philadelphia. The Eagles won the division last year in Chip Kelly's first season and have only gotten better. They have the fewest holes. The Giants will once again hover around .500 and end up a game or two short of the playoffs (they play the Eagles in the finale, which could be for the division. Dallas will also do the same thing it does every year. Make everybody think this is the year they're actually going to make the playoffs, have a chance to do so, and lose their last game. Everybody was jumping on the Redskins bandwagon two years ago when RG3 was this dynamic rookie who took them to the playoffs. Last year he was hurt and Washington regressed significantly. I think they're probably somewhere in the middle. Problem is they're still the worst team in this division, which likely means last place.
North: The Packers are like the St. Louis Cardinals of football. No matter what, no matter how far out of it they might seem, you know they're going to find a way to end up in the playoffs. Take last year, when Aaron Rodgers missed half the season and they still won the division. If Rodgers stays healthy all year, they're not just the favorites to win the NFC North. There's a reason why Green Bay is a very chic pick to be in Arizona in February. Winning the division is by no means a mere formality, though. Because the Chicago Bears are good. And I think they're going to be a real threat. I know it seems like I say this about the Bears every year and every year they find a way to piss their season away. It's very possible that will happen again, but they've definitely got all the pieces in place to challenge the Packers for the division title. The Lions can't be counted out either. Detroit choked worse than Chicago last season, going from division champs to out of the playoffs in a span of six days in December. They've gotta play like the team that played the first 13 weeks of last season all year if they want to make the playoffs in a loaded NFC. The Vikings enter another rebuilding year as they head to the University of Minnesota for two years while their new stadium is built. How long has it been since Adrian Peterson was on a college campus?
South: I have no idea what's going to happen in the NFC South. The standings could easily be exactly the same as they were last year. But I don't think it would surprise anybody if they flipped completely. Regardless, New Orleans is the deepest and most talented team in the division. The Saints only got a wild card year because of how good the Panthers ended up being. Carolina's not going to surprise anybody this year and the Saints have Drew Brees, so I'm giving them the edge in the division race. But the Panthers are right there. Any slip-up at all by the Saints, and we could easily see Carolina defend its division title. A lot of people are also very high on the Bucs. If they were in another division I might be too, but I question whether Tampa Bay has the talent to hang in there with New Orleans and Carolina all season. Besides, what are those uniforms? What do NFL teams in Florida have against the American public? Seriously, why is the pirate flag on the helmets so big? I miss Buccaneer Bruce, too. As for the Falcons, they went from the best record in the NFC in 2012 to last place in 2013. Atlanta had some big time injuries last year, which helps explain the subpar season. Because the Falcons are a better team than that. They're entirely capable of a bounce back year, especially if everybody stays healthy. But I think the NFC South is too good for that to make much of a difference.
West: Until Sam Bradford tore his ACL in the preseason, there were four legitimate playoff contenders in the NFC West, which has emerged as football's best division. Unfortunately for St. Louis, it looks like they're now destined for another last place finish, which says less about the Rams than it does about the rest of the division. They're simply not going to be able to overcome being without their franchise quarterback while playing six games against three of the best teams in the NFL. Speaking of the top, let's head to the Pacific Northwest and visit the defending Super Bowl champion Seahawks. Seattle's young and has perhaps the best chance to repeat of any Super Bowl winner since New England's back-to-back titles 10 years ago. It's also possible that the Seahawks might be even better this year, which is a scary thought for their opponents. Seattle will have a tough time just to win its own division, though. Don't forget, the 49ers have been to three straight NFC Championship Games, with a last-second Super Bowl loss thrown in. The NFC Championship Game last season was Seattle and San Francisco. It's not a stretch to think that could happen again. Arizona might have something to say about that, though. The Cardinals are the best third-place team in football, which is not a knock on them. What I think a lot of people don't realize is that Arizona went 10-6 last year and just missed the playoffs. (The Cardinals' record last year is probably one of the reasons that seven-team playoff talk got going again in the offseason.) Sadly, I think they might be destined for a similar fate unless they find a way to move above the 49ers or Seahawks. Which won't be easy. Even for a team as good as the Cardinals.
Forgive me for kind of going with the chalk, but I'll go Eagles, Packers, Saints and Seahawks as the division winners. And in a very close call for the wild cards, I'll say San Francisco and Chicago, although a tiebreaker involving Carolina and/or Arizona is definitely possible. In fact, the Cardinals could end up 10-6 and not get in once again. The top of the NFC is just that good.
As for the way these playoffs would play out, the upset possibilities are endless. I'll say we end up with Packers vs. Seahawks in the NFC Championship Game, though. And that one goes a little better for Green Bay than tonight's game is going. The Packers move on to face the Broncos in the Super Bowl.
My Super Bowl matchup pits two future Hall of Fame quarterbacks against each other (just like the last time the Broncos played the Packers in the Super Bowl). The NFC is the stronger conference, and surviving it would make Green Bay the favorite. But the Broncos know how to overcome playoff disappointment. They had that overtime loss to Baltimore in 2012, then won the AFC title last season, when they got shellacked by the Seahawks in the Super Bowl. If they get another chance, I don't see them squandering the opportunity. Peyton finally ties Eli with a second Lombardi Trophy. At the very least, Denver keeps up its streak of having its season ended by the Super Bowl champions in the playoffs.
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