By this time tomorrow, we'll know the results of the historic vote taking place in Scotland. The vote, of course, is whether or not Scotland will remain a part of Great Britain. A simple majority and Scotland will break off into an independent country. While I obviously don't have a horse in the race, I think Scottish independence is a bad idea. My opinion, of course, doesn't matter, but the sporting implications, just like the economic and political ones (which are the main reasons why I think it's a bad idea), of this vote are vast.
Let's start with the most obvious: the Rio Olympics. The IOC made it a rule a few years ago that you need to be recognized by the UN in order to receive IOC recognition. Scottish leaders predict that, if the referendum is successful, it'll take 18 months for Scotland's government to become fully operational and the country to become a full voting member of the European Union. That timetable brings us to March 2016...just four months before the start of the Rio Games. Which is simply not enough time for an independent Scottish Olympic team to go to Rio.
There are other things necessary for a nation to become eligible to field an Olympic team. For starters, a National Olympic Committee needs to be established. That part doesn't seem too hard, seeing as Scotland sends its own team to the Commonwealth Games, but it's also worth noting that South Sudan has been an independent country for almost three years and still doesn't have an NOC! They also need to have a certain number of national federations recognized by the international federation in the given sport. Again, this doesn't seem like it would be much of a problem for Scotland, which already fields its own national team in soccer, rugby and a number of other sports.
It shouldn't be a problem for Scotland to get any of this put in place. Except for the tight timing. I'm sure some of the steps would be made during those 18 months, but that doesn't change the qualifying window. And there's no guarantee that Scotland would be able to have the most important thing it needs--the recognized NOC.
Regardless, the IOC has promised protection to those Scottish athletes who qualify for Rio. If there's no Scottish team in Rio, they'd all still be allowed to go. After all, they'd remain British citizens, so the option to compete for Great Britain would always be there (I'd imagine it'd be a situation similar to that of Northern Ireland, whose athletes have the option of representing Great Britain or Ireland, which golfer Rory McIlroy will do in Rio). At worst, Scottish athletes would be able to compete under the Olympic flag, which is what the South Sudanese athletes did in London and the Indian athletes did at the Opening Ceremony in Sochi.
Speaking of Scottish athletes, there were 16 that won medals in London. The most famous of which is Andy Murray, who became a British national hero with his gold medal in tennis, followed by ending the home country's Wimbledon drought in 2013 (that would still count as a British win even if Scotland does secede). Swimmer Hannah Miley, meanwhile, is the reigning European champion in the 400 IM, an event in which she finished fifth in London. There are also a number of track & field stars from Scotland, most notably 400 meter hurdlers Eilidh Child and Dai Greene, as well as European 800 meter champion Lynsey Sharp. Plenty of top-ranked golfers are Scottish, too, although none would qualify for Rio as members of a British team.
In fact, Britian's most successful Olympian ever is Scottish. Sir Chris Hoy won seven career Olympic medals in cycling, including six golds, two of which came in London. Interestingly, though, Hoy has spoken out about against Scottish independence. He warned that it would negatively affect Scottish athletes, who would no longer have access to the world-class training facilities in England. Or get a cut of the lottery money that funds the British Olympic team and is a big reason why Great Britain has been so successful in recent Games.
Of course, that's not something the Scots are thinking about. Those that favor independence are caught up in nationalistic pride, and they'll point to the Scottish success at the recent Commonwealth Games, which they hosted in Glasgow. Scotland won 19 gold medals and 53 overall, which were each the highest total in their history. Although, success at the Commonwealth Games needs to viewed cautiously. A number of those medals were won in sports that aren't in the Olympics, and the competition at the Commonwealth Games is significantly weaker.
And I haven't even brought up the impact it would have on golf. Golf was invented in Scotland, and the British Open alternates between Scotland and England every year, with a regular stop at the sport's Holy Grail, the Royal & Ancient in St. Andrews. You'd have to wonder whether Scotland would be removed from the rotation or if they'd work out some sort of arrangement to keep things as is.
I'm also worried for a British Davis Cup team that wouldn't include Andy Murray.
Whatever happens, there's little doubt that the Scottish independence referendum will have some sort of impact on the world of sports. Could an independent Scotland succeed athletically? Yes, depending on the sport. Would Scottish athletes be better off if the country remained a part of Great Britain? The answer to that one is a much more definitive "Yes." For their sake, I hope the referendum fails. Because otherwise, it might be a long road for even the elite Scottish athletes.
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