Sunday, November 3, 2013

Week 9 NFL Picks

I don't know about you, but I've had a very busy week.  You should see my DVR.  Anyway, this crazy week has reached Sunday, which means we've got another slate of NFL games.  And for the second straight week, we've only got 10 afternoon games because there are six teams that have byes.  And once again, that leaves us with some unspectacular matchups getting national exposure.  I'm also expecting plenty of blowouts.

Chiefs (8-0) at Bills (3-5): Kansas City-This is the undefeated Chiefs' last test before their bye, followed by the Broncos twice in three weeks.  It should be a pretty good test for Kansas City, too.  The Bills have played well at home, almost beating a couple good teams (New England, Cincinnati) in Buffalo.  However, the Bills ended up losing to the Patriots on the last play of the game and the Bengals in overtime.  I have a feeling this one will be similar.  Chiefs: 9-0.

Vikings (1-6) at Cowboys (4-4): Dallas-Minnesota's not a good team.  That's already been established.  Dallas is a good team, even though their record might not indicate it.  They, of course, lost to the Broncos in the game of the year, and had the game won last week until that ridiculous drive by the Lions in the final minute to steal the victory.  The amazing thing, though, is that the loss didn't knock Dallas out of first place.  Playing the Vikings at home, the Cowboys should move back above .500, which should be a requirement for a first-place team at this point in the season.

Titans (3-4) at Rams (3-5): Tennessee-Jeff Fisher's on the other side for the first time in this Super Bowl XXXIV rematch.  It was a rough night in St. Louis on Monday.  First, the Cardinals lost Game 5, giving the Red Sox the 3-2 lead that they eventually converted into a World Series title, then the Rams couldn't convert on a 4th-and-1 and ended up losing 14-9 to the Seahawks.  That would've been a great win for St. Louis.  Tennessee hasn't won since Week 4, but the Titans' last three opponents before their bye were Kansas City, Seattle and San Francisco.  St. Louis isn't any one of those teams.  Jeff Fisher's first game against his former team should go Tennessee's way.

Saints (6-1) at Jets (4-4): New Orleans-Rex vs. Rob.  Believe it or not, the Jets haven't had a losing streak all season.  They've alternated wins and losses over the first eight weeks.  They got clobbered, 49-9, last week in Cincinnati, so following the formula would indicate a Jets win.  In order to do that, though, they'll have to beat a Saints team that's arguably the best in the NFC.  New Orleans is the better team.  I think they do to the Jets what the Bengals did.

Chargers (4-3) at Redskins (2-5): San Diego-If the playoffs started today, the Chargers would be the second wild card in the AFC.  That says a lot about how much things have changed in San Diego this season.  Washington was Denver's designated punching bag last week, although the Redskins are starting to show signs of the team that won the NFC East last year.  This is a West Coast team playing an early game on the East Coast, which is usually a major disadvantage.  The Chargers have already won in Philadelphia and Jacksonville this year, though.  Make that three 1:00 victories for San Diego.

Falcons (2-5) at Panthers (4-3): Carolina-OK.  I've finally jumped off that Falcons bandwagon.  They're not going to make the playoffs.  They're a shell of last year's team.  At this point, Atlanta will be lucky to salvage a .500 season.  Cam Newton and the Panthers, however, are rolling.  Carolina has won three straight to suddenly jump into the playoff hunt.  With the opposite directions in which each team is headed, this pick is an easy one.

Eagles (3-5) at Raiders (3-4): Philadelphia-Ah yes.  Philadelphia vs. Oakland.  Much like Jets-Saints, the NFL is taking advantage of the 49ers' bye week to get one of the Raiders' FOX games out of the way.  Turns out I was right about the Raiders against the Steelers last week.  I don't have the same feeling about this week's game, though.  Even though the Eagles have scored a grand total of 10 points in their last two games, I'm taking Philly.

Buccaneers (0-7) at Seahawks (7-1): Seattle-Jacksonville can't lose this week, so they have a chance to move up into a tie for 31st in the power rankings if Seattle takes care of business against a woeful Tampa Bay team.  The Seahawks somehow managed to finagle two homecoming games onto their schedule.  I know I said I'm taking Seattle in every home game until they finally lose one, but the teams they're playing at Qwest Field are making those calls way too easy.  If I was allowed to, I'd probably have taken Seattle in survival football two or three times by now.

Ravens (3-4) at Browns (3-5): Baltimore-The defending champs need a win badly in the Modell Bowl.  The Ravens had their bye last week and haven't won since squeaking by Miami in Week 5.  Cleveland's come back to earth after that sudden surge right after the Trent Richardson trade.  The Bengals lost on Thursday, making this one even more important if Baltimore wants to catch Cincinnati.  After a bye, they'll be ready.  The Old Browns beat the New Browns.

Steelers (2-5) at Patriots (6-2): New England-Even though Pittsburgh is struggling, this is still one of the better games this week.  We've got Brady vs. Roethlisberger and two of the league's marquee franchises in the national late game.  The Patriots recovered nicely after that loss to the Jets by beating Miami last week, while Pittsburgh, just as I suspected they might, lost in Oakland.  The Steelers are in even more trouble if they lose.  Problem is: Boston's still delirious about the Red Sox.  The Patriots will feed off that energy and overtake Cincinnati in the race for that second playoff bye.

Colts (5-2) at Texans (2-5): Indianapolis-Back-to-back Sunday night games for the Colts, who got that win over Denver before their bye.  Of course, the matchup against the Texans was a lot more attractive before the season began.  Houston has lost five in a row and has finally handed off the quarterback reins to Case Keenum.  When you're relying on Case Keenum to save your season, you know there's problems.  On Sunday, they'll have plenty of other problems, too.  Namely, Andrew Luck and Robert Mathis.

Bears (4-3) at Packers (5-2): Green Bay-The only game all week that pits two teams that are above .500 against each other is the Monday nighter in Lambeau between the NFL's two oldest rivals.  The Packers have really been playing some good football of late and the Bears are better than their 4-3 record.  With Detroit off this week, a Chicago win could set up a three-way tie for first in the NFC North.  I don't think that'll happen, though.  The Packers are playing too well, and they're desperate to get the memory of their last Monday night game (the "Fail Mary" in Seattle) out of their minds.

BYES: Arizona, Denver, Detroit, Jacksonville, Giants, San Francisco

This Week: 0-1
Last Week: 10-3
Season: 76-45

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