Thanksgiving's tomorrow, which means we've got our traditional Detroit/Dallas doubleheader, followed by the Ravens home game that they weren't able to play in Week 1. And it means that we're finally done with byes and have a full 16-game slate. It also means that, with three games on Thursday instead of one, I'm posting the picks early this week. Next week, I'll go back to a Saturday night posting (especially since the Thursday night game next week is Houston-Jacksonville).
Packers (5-5-1) at Lions (6-5): Detroit-Even though the Packers and Vikings played each other, nobody in the NFC North won last week. Which makes this semi-annual Thanksgiving matchup all the more important. Green Bay can actually take a half-game lead in the division with a win. But they haven't shown the ability to do that at all without Aaron Rodgers. They need him back badly. It's the Lions that hold the tiebreaker and are technically in first place right now. It's rare that Detroit's a favorite on Thanksgiving, but that's certainly the case this year. At 7-5, they'll still be in control of the division race.
Raiders (4-7) at Cowboys (6-5): Dallas-NFL, the Cowboys' only two home games against AFC teams this year, and thus the only two opponents available for them to play on Thanksgiving, were Denver and Oakland. The choice seemed obvious. So why, in God's name, are we being subjected to the Oakland Raiders on Thanksgiving!? We'll get to see exactly how bad the Raiders really are, as the first-place Cowboys actually move two games over .500. (FYI, Detroit's AFC home games next year are against Buffalo and Miami.)
Steelers (5-6) at Ravens (5-6): Baltimore-As a consolation for not being able to host the opening game, the Ravens get the Thanksgiving primetime game against their biggest rivals. And it's a huge game! After that start, who would've thought Pittsburgh would be right back in the playoff race. You've got to think this is essentially an elimination game. The loser will be 5-7 and only one game out of a wild card, but have way too many teams to pass. The winner, meanwhile, still has a realistic shot at the division. After the mess that came with the opener and eventually getting slaughtered in Denver, the Ravens are out to redeem themselves for that performance. I think they will.
Jaguars (2-9) at Browns (4-7): Cleveland-Because the bad teams have to play somebody, too, so why not play each other? Although, believe it or not, the Jaguars technically aren't in last place anymore! Both of Jacksonville's wins have come on the road, but those were both in division games. Cleveland's a little colder than Houston.
Titans (5-6) at Colts (7-4): Indianapolis-So maybe Indianapolis isn't as good as they would like us to believe. Bruce Arians was NFL Coach of the Year as a Colts assistant last season, and he made his former team look silly as head coach of the Cardinals last week. These two played just two weeks ago on a Thursday night in Nashville, and the Colts came away with a 30-27 victory. It'll be another close one, but the result will likely be the same.
Bears (6-5) at Vikings (2-8-1): Chicago-I officially don't know what to make of the Chicago Bears. Every time I think they're the best team in the NFC North, they play like the overrated bunch of posers their critics are quick to label them. Take last week for example. 42-21? Against the Rams!? With that being said, it's entirely possible they could lose this game against the Vikings, even though they shouldn't.
Dolphins (5-6) at Jets (5-6): Miami-The Jets have stopped their alternating wins and losses thing, dropping two straight. They're a much better team at home, though. They've beaten both New England and New Orleans at the Meadowlands. And this is actually a huge game between two of the six! 5-6 teams in the AFC. It's also the first meeting of the season between hated division rivals. I like the way Miami's playing better than the Jets are right now.
Cardinals (7-4) at Eagles (6-5): Arizona-The NFC wild card teams are going to be Carolina and Arizona, aren't they? The Panthers are the hottest team in football, but Arizona's not too far behind. Four straight wins. The Eagles have won three straight themselves and are tied for first in the NFC East. Something's gotta give in this Bird Bowl a few days after Turkey Day. Just like the NFC Championship Game five years ago, the Cardinals beat the Eagles.
Buccaneers (3-9) at Panthers (8-3): Carolina-Remember when Tampa Bay was still the only winless team in football? It wasn't that long ago. In fact, it was just three weeks ago. The Bucs' three-game winning streak, though, will be halted by a red-hot Carolina team that will, incredibly, be playing for first place in New Orleans next Sunday night.
Patriots (8-3) at Texans (2-9): New England-That was impressive last week. I thought New England would win, but not like that. Incredible. It's also incredible how badly Houston has fallen after back-to-back division titles. Nine losses in a row including one, inexplicably, at home to Jacksonville. It's like Peyton-less Indianapolis two years ago. Make it 10 straight losses for the Texans.
Falcons (2-9) vs. Bills (4-7): Buffalo-Ditto about the Atlanta Falcons. Five straight losses for my preseason Super Bowl pick. Now they head to Toronto for the Bills' annual "home" game North of the Border. Unlike last year, when they got absolutely obliterated by Seattle, Buffalo might actually have the home field advantage at SkyDome this year. The Falcons are just too bad right now.
Rams (5-6) at 49ers (7-4): San Francisco-The Rams didn't lose to the 49ers last season, notching a win and a tie in the two games. But, alas, they did lose the first meeting of this season in St. Louis in Week 4. The 49ers are going to need to beat them again in order to keep pace in the NFC playoff race. After going to the Super Bowl last season, they're currently on the outside looking in, and Carolina owns the head-to-head tiebreaker. A loss here would be devastating for San Francisco.
Broncos (9-2) at Chiefs (9-2): Denver-As Al Michaels correctly pointed out at the end of the Broncos-Patriots game last week, that result meant as much to Kansas City as anybody else. Before they played two weeks ago, the Chiefs were undefeated and the Broncos were looking up at them. Now Kansas City has lost two straight, and needs to win this one to avoid Denver clinching the tiebreaker. At Arrowhead, it's going to be closer than it was two weeks ago. But the Broncos know the importance of this game. I don't see them losing.
Bengals (7-4) at Chargers (5-6): Cincinnati-With Giants-Redskins as the Sunday night game, I thought this one was a candidate to get flexed into primetime. They kept the NFC East rivalry game, though. Regardless, this is a big one for AFC playoff position. San Diego's hot after a win in Kansas City, while the Bengals have seen their cushion in the North drop to just two games. With a loss, the Baltimore-Pittsburgh winner will be just a game behind. Fortunately, they still play both the Steelers and Ravens. They can't afford to lose this one, though.
Giants (4-7) at Redskins (3-8): Giants-I'm not sure why they kept this one on Sunday night. It's two bad teams, and, other than the fact that they genuinely dislike each other, there's absolutely nothing at stake. The Giants' loss to Dallas on Sunday took care of that. And Washington looked as bad against San Francisco on Monday night as they have all season. Mike Shanahan said everybody's playing for their jobs. That might include himself. As for the game, if the Giants shut up, which Tom Coughlin has said they'd better, they should take this one.
Saints (9-2) at Seahawks (10-1): Seattle-ESPN always manages to luck into one really good Monday night game in December, and this year is no exception. 'Cause they've got the game of the week. The winner of this matchup will have homefield in the NFC playoffs. How important is that? Well, CenturyLink Field and the Superdome are two of the toughest places to play in the league for visitors. Especially Seattle. The Seahawks haven't lost at home since the 2011 season, and they've got the best record in football. If this game were in New Orleans, I'd pick the Saints. But since it's in Seattle, I'm going with the Seahawks.
Last Week: 7-6-1
Season: 110-65-1
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