Before I get into this week's NFL picks, I need to make a little clarification regarding last week. I'm not sure how I did this, especially since I look at my Yahoo! picks while I'm writing my blog post, but I picked each team in the Chargers-Redskins game last week. I picked San Diego here and Washington on Yahoo! Since my Yahoo! picks are where I get the record that I publish from, I'm counting that Redskins pick from last week. Again, I have no idea how I ended up picking both the Redskins and the Chargers, but I did. It's confusing and embarrassing.
Hopefully I'll be able to properly copy my pick from one place to the other this week. That shouldn't be hard, though. This is one of those weeks where it's hard to pick against the favorites (even though that did come to bite me on Thursday).
Seahawks (8-1) at Falcons (2-6): Seattle-This playoff rematch was supposed to be a potential playoff preview. So much for that. The Falcons aren't going anywhere. The Seahawks, though, I've finally come around on. Seattle's on the short list of best teams in the NFL, and I wouldn't be surprised to see them in Giants Stadium in February. And that Saints loss to the Jets last week means the NFC playoffs are likely headed through Seattle. In the playoff game, the Seahawks blew a lead and the Falcons won. Things will be different this week.
Lions (5-3) at Bears (5-3): Chicago-Chicago's win in Lambeau on Monday night created a three-way tie atop the NFC North. The Lions have the tiebreaker, though, so they're technically the first-place team. These rivalry games are always fun, but adding that first-place element to it makes it even better. Jay Cutler's back this week, too. I don't know how effective he'll be, but the Bears won in Green Bay last week without him. And Chicago's a better team with Cutler on the field. I think that's enough to make the difference and give the Bears their second straight division win.
Eagles (4-5) at Packers (5-3): Green Bay-This was a much easier pick last week when Aaron Rodgers wasn't out with a broken collarbone. His importance to the Packers was on clear display when Seneca Wallace was under center on Monday. The Eagles' Nick Foles, meanwhile, had a historic day against the Raiders, tossing seven touchdown passes. But that performance gets an asterisk. They were playing the Raiders. Even without Rodgers, I think the Packers defense is enough to carry Green Bay to a victory.
Jaguars (0-8) at Titans (4-4): Tennessee-Jacksonville didn't lose last week! That's all I got for the Jaguars. I do think they'll manage to win a game this year, and the rematch with the Titans in Jacksonville is a good candidate. But they're not going to win in Nashville. The Titans move to 5-4 and into a tie for the second wild card.
Rams (3-6) at Colts (6-2): Indianapolis-Bad news for the Colts: this isn't a Sunday night game. This is actually Indy's first Sunday afternoon game since Week 5, when they handed Seattle its only loss of the season. The Rams are in the middle of a tough stretch. They played well in close games against the Seahawks and Titans, but ended up losing both. Don't be surprised if the same thing happens in Indy.
Raiders (3-5) at Giants (2-6): Giants-The Giants haven't lost in three whole weeks! Sure, last week was their bye, but it still counts. And they're getting a home game against the Raiders at just the right time. This is the beginning of a three-game homestand, but with the Packers and Cowboys coming in next, it's also a must-win. The NFC East is very winnable. It's not if they lose at home to the Raiders.
Bills (3-6) at Steelers (2-6): Pittsburgh-I actually consider this game a toss-up. Pittsburgh's nowhere near as scary as they once were anymore. That became abundantly clear when the Patriots ran all over them last week. Not all hope is lost, though. Ben Roethlisberger had a good game. The Bills finally don't have a first-place team to deal with, but the Steelers are desperate. For that reason, I say Pittsburgh wins a close one.
Bengals (6-3) at Ravens (3-5): Baltimore-Want to talk desperate AFC North teams? I give you the defending Super Bowl Champions. Baltimore is 3-5 and just a game ahead of Pittsburgh. The first-place Bengals have a chance of running away with the division, especially if they win this week. But I don't think the Ravens can be counted out completely yet. Joe Flacco's going to find a way. The Bengals are favored, but this is my only upset pick of the week. I'm going Ravens.
Panthers (5-3) at 49ers (6-2): San Francisco-This is a matchup of the two teams that currently hold the NFC wild cards. Most everyone expected San Francisco to be in this position, but Carolina has been a pleasant surprise. Cam Newton should earn a trip to the Pro Bowl, and the Panthers are going to make the Saints work so much harder than they thought they would in the NFC South. The Panthers are going to be legitimate contenders for a playoff spot. This week, though, the 49ers will prove to be the better team.
Texans (2-6) at Cardinals (4-4): Arizona-Remember when everyone was so high on the Houston Texans? Yeah, well things have sure changed, haven't they? The Texans should've won last week, yet found a way to blow it. Now they're without Head Coach Gary Kubiak, who had a health scare in the Indianapolis game, and Wade Phillips is in charge. This losing streak has to end eventually. But I'm going to say that'll be next week when the Texans host the Raiders. As for this week, it reaches six.
Broncos (7-1) at Chargers (4-4): Denver-An easy trap game for Denver. The next three weeks are Kansas City, New England, Kansas City, and the Chargers are a very good team. In fact, with a win, San Diego moves into a tie with the Jets for the second AFC wild card. I wouldn't be surprised at all if this is a game. In the end, though, the Broncos are just too good. Jack Del Rio was the perfect choice as the interim coach while John Fox recovers. Besides, they've still got offensive coordinator Peyton Manning running the show. Denver also knows that they can't take over first place next week if they lose this week.
Cowboys (5-4) at Saints (6-2): New Orleans-The last pre-flex Sunday night game is a good one between first-place teams. The Saints somehow lost to the Jets last week, while the rest of the NFC East seems content to let Dallas stay in first place no matter how much the Cowboys try to give it away. Only beating Minnesota by four at home? Seriously? There are two big differences in this game that swing in the Saints' favor. Rob Ryan wants to stick it to the Cowboys, and New Orleans always plays its best on the national stage. Keeping both of those things in mind lead me towards a Saints pick.
Dolphins (4-4) at Buccaneers (0-8): Miami-It's certainly been a tumultuous 10 days in Miami since that Thursday-night win over the Bengals last week. A dedicated post to this will be coming in the near future, but my nutshell take on the Richie Incognito-Jonathan Martin situation is basically this: "You're in the NFL. Be a man." Anyway, all of that drama has to be a major distraction for Miami, and Tampa Bay stands to be the beneficiary. The Bucs are better than their record, but 0-8 is 0-8. Once they stop finding ways to lose, they're going to win a game or two. For some reason, I think the remaining Dolphins can put everything aside and rally for a victory to move back into the playoff discussion.
BYE: Cleveland, Kansas City, New England, Jets
Last Week: 9-4
This Week: 0-1
Season: 85-49
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