This Year's First-Timers

The Baseball Hall of Fame ballot is out, and, just as anticipated, it's loaded.  That's what happens when you have a ton of holdovers from last year's ballot that was just as loaded, yet didn't yield any new Hall of Famers, and you add a bunch of guys who are in that same category.  It also means that there are some marginal candidates who would otherwise be worthy of a longer discussion that might not even get the five percent necessary to stay on the ballot.  (Voters are limited to 10, and I can easily think of 15 candidates on this ballot that I would vote for.)

I've got a month to think about the 10 I'm going to "vote" for in that annual post, but I thought it might be fun with this post to look at the 20 first-time eligible candidates and their chances for eventual induction.

Let's start with the "No Chance In Hell" category.  I'm not even sure why some of these guys are on the ballot (although someone did vote for Aaron Sele last year).  Especially with some of the holdovers that voters won't be able to vote for this year, I'd be surprised to see anybody in this group get to one percent, let alone the required five to stay on the ballot.  The members of this group are:

• Armando Benitez: Doesn't even belong in the Mets Hall of Fame
• Sean Casey: Who actually had a pretty decent career
• Ray Durham: Wasn't even considered that good when he was playing
• Eric Gagne: Did nothing before or after that 82-straight successful save opportunity streak, which also probably had something to do with PEDs
• Jacque Jones: Did anyone even notice he stopped playing?
• Todd Jones: Biggest claim to fame is getting the final out at Tiger Stadium
• Paul Lo Duca: A poor man's Mike Piazza
• Richie Sexson: Hasn't hit a home run at Yankee Stadium in five years
• J.T. Snow: Prevented Darren Baker from getting run over during the 2002 World Series
• Mike Timlin: In contention with Benitez, Durham and Jacque Jones for the "Why is he on the ballot?" Award

Then there's the "I Hope They Get At Least One More Year" group...

• Moises Alou: Exactly the type of player I'm worried will get knocked off, even though he shouldn't because of how stacked the overall ballot is.  He's not a Hall of Famer and never will be, but should also be more than a one-and-done.
• Luis Gonzalez: He's probably going to hang around the ballot for all 15 years.  All because of that bloop hit off Mariano Rivera in Game 7 of the 2001 World Series.
• Jeff Kent: This is Steve Garvey-Dale Murphy-Don Mattingly territory.  One of the top players at his position during his era, but not good enough for his own plaque in Cooperstown.
• Hideo Nomo: The first one in this generation of Japanese players who've come over and been successful in the Majors.  Not a Hall of Famer, but should be rewarded for being the pioneer he is.
• Kenny Rogers: Started an All-Star Game, pitched a perfect game, won a World Series and pitched in another (although Mets fans would be quick to point out he also walked in the winning run of the 1999 NLCS).

Only two guys fall into this next category, the "Close, but Not Quites"...

• Mike Mussina: This is a borderline Hall of Fame case if there ever was one.  He pitched 18 years (all in the AL East) and won 270 games.  Mussina had at least 15 wins 11 times, and won 20 for the only time in his final season (2008).  Then there's the five All-Star teams, seven Gold Gloves, and eight years with Cy Young votes.  He's sixth all-time in winning percentage among pitchers with at least 250 wins, but would have the second-highest ERA among Hall of Fame pitchers.  Jim Kaat and Tommy John were on the ballot for all 15 years and still aren't in, and Jack Morris is in his 15th.  Mussina's wait will probably be just as long.
• Sammy Sosa: If you ask me, Sammy Sosa's a Hall of Famer.  PEDs or no PEDs, 609 homers are 609 homers.  And he has almost as many 60-homer seasons himself (three) as all others in Major League history combined (four).  But just like his Steroid Era contemporaries, Sosa's not going to get in.  His vote total will probably be comparable to what McGwire and Palmeiro have been receiving ever since they first appeared on the ballot.  Which won't help the ballot backlog problem.

Our final group is three men who I have no doubt will be elected.  The only question I have is how many of the three will be elected this year (one is a lock) and whether anyone else will join him/them (these three will be ranked in order, rather than alphabetically)...

• Greg Maddux: There's nothing about Greg Maddux that's not a Hall of Famer.  There's never been a unanimous selection, and I'm sure he won't be either (although anybody who ever saw him pitch and doesn't think he belongs in the Hall of Fame needs to have their head examined).  It would get redundant to start spewing off stats, but two stand out as the biggest proof of his greatness: 17 consecutive 15-win seasons and 18 Gold Gloves.  And the 355 wins.  And the four straight Cy Youngs.  There is no doubt in my mind that Greg Maddux will be giving a speech in Cooperstown come July.
• Frank Thomas: It's such a shame that the Big Hurt's only World Series ring came when he was injured and unable to play.  He played in an era of superstar sluggers, many of whom have since been tainted by steroid admissions or accusations.  Not so with Thomas.  He was outspoken in his criticism of PED users and was never even suspected himself.  All he did was mash.  Back-to-back MVPs.  521 home runs.  All of it clean.  He and Ken Griffey, Jr., are the only 90s superstars who you can say that about with certainty.  Maybe not a first-timer, but definitely getting elected sometime soon.
• Tom Glavine: There are some idiots out there who don't think Tom Glavine's a Hall of Famer.  How great was he in the 1995 World Series, when the Braves finally won their title?  But that's only the tip of the iceberg.  The Braves teams of the 90s were dominant because of those three pitchers.  Everybody knows it.  And to think they would've done it without all three is asinine.  Was Glavine as good as Maddux?  No.  Does that mean he's not a Hall of Famer?  Absolutely not!  It would be great if they went in together, but I can understand if they want to make Glavine wait a year.  Because there is a difference between "Hall of Famer" and "first-ballot Hall of Famer."  Besides, Smoltz is eligible for the first time next year.

As for the other seven guys I'd vote for, that's going to take some thinking.  Fortunately, I've got a month to think about it.