Friday, September 27, 2013

Who Stays, Who Goes

Now that the Yankees have been eliminated from playoff contention and an all-time great has made his final appearance at Yankee Stadium, it's time to mercifully start looking past this dreadful season and towards next year.  More specifically, it's time to look at next year's roster.  There are a lot of guys that won't be returning.  We've been counting down the days to some of these departures (I'm talking to you, Fatso), while others are incredibly bittersweet (I can't think of life without Mariano).  But this much is for sure, there's going to be a lot of roster turnover.

And since once the competitive portion of the season ends, everybody starts playing the "Who should stay, who should go" game, I thought that might be fun.

Just to be clear, I'm not going to touch the players who are already under contract for next year.  CC Sabathia, Mark Teixeira, Alfonso Soriano and Ichiro Suzuki are among the most prominent members of that group.  David Robertson will be promoted to closer and Derek Jeter has a player option that there's no chance he won't exercise.  And A-Rod's still under contract, even though the likelihood of him playing a full season next year are minimal at best.  I'm working under the assumption his suspension will last the entire season, and the Yankees probably are too.

But as for everybody else, here's my take, starting with the elephant in the room...

Robinson Cano: He wants 10 years and $300 million.  Correction, Jay-Z wants 10 years and $300 million.  There's no chance the Yankees will give him that.  Either the money or the years.  But nobody else is going to, either.  There's a middle ground to be found, and I'm pretty sure they'll find it.  The Yankees know they have to re-sign him.  Even if they have to overpay to do it.  Keep him.

Curtis Granderson: He's a free agent, and they seem to be set with a Soriano-Gardner-Ichiro outfield, so I'm not entirely sure where Granderson fits into that mix.  But I'm also not sure how many offers he'll receive elsewhere (although two freak injuries shouldn't hurt his value too much).  He probably wants to come back, and they could easily figure out a rotation that will include DH days and off days for all four (while also giving themselves some built-in injury protection).  I don't think him returning next season is a stretch, nor would it be an entirely bad move.  If the Yankees make him an offer, Granderson probably returns.  Keep him.

Hiroki Kuroda: Kuroda was great for four months, but badly faded down the stretch.  He's 38 years old and reportedly wants to end his career back in Japan.  This is another tough one, and I ultimately think the Yankees might leave it up to him.  If Kuroda wants to come back, he probably gets a one-year deal.  Seeing as they're going to need at least two starting pitchers (three if he leaves), its worth another year.  Keep him.

Boone Logan: This is a situation that's somewhat like Granderson's.  He needs to have elbow surgery, which might limit the interest he receives from other teams.  Which could be good for the Yankees.  Logan's been so good as the lefty specialist in the bullpen that it's worth making him an offer.  Bringing him back seems like a low-risk proposition.  Keep him.

Mark Reynolds: Talk about a worthwhile midseason pickup.  Reynolds goes from Yankee Killer to Yankee, and his value cannot be overstated.  A right-handed power hitter who can play both corner infield positions and DH.  He can start at third and be Teixeira's backup at first.  In my opinion, this one's a no-brainer.  Keep him.

Eduardo Nunez: Nunez takes a lot of criticism for his fielding, but they still view him as the shortstop of the future, and he's gotten a lot more comfortable at third.  Plus, he's a better hitter than Ryan, Nix or some of the other in-house options.  He's injury-prone, but that's the only reason I can think of that doesn't make bringing him back an absolute slam dunk.  Keep him.

Jayson Nix: A utility infielder is an incredibly valuable thing to have.  That became even more evident once Nix was lost for the year.  He's better suited to the utility role than Nunez.  Keep him.

Francisco Cervelli: Biogenesis aside, he deserves a full season.  He won the catching job in Spring Training, only to break his hand in May.  Other teams won't want to go anywhere near him because of the Biogenesis thing, the Yankees still control his contract, and he's well-liked among his teammates and the pitching staff.  There's no reason not to bring Cervelli back.  Keep him.

Austin Romine: See above, minus the part about Biogenesis.  He got much more comfortable once he realized he wasn't going to get sent down.  He probably starts next season at Triple-A.  Keep him.

Zolio Almonte: Ditto.  He's still under club control and will likely start the season in Scranton.  Keep him.

Phil Hughes: It just didn't work out the way everyone had hoped.  A fly ball pitcher and Yankee Stadium aren't a good mix.  He'll probably go to some National League team with a big ballpark and thrive.  I hope he does.  Dump him.

Joba Chamberlain: Bye!  I've been waiting for Fatso to get out of town for like three years.  I'm finally going to get my wish.  He's already cleaned out his locker.  He knows what's coming.  No chance he returns.  Dump him.

Lyle Overbay: I can't sing Lyle Overbay's praises enough.  He proved to be one of the most valuable Yankees this season.  Without Overbay at first, they don't stay in the race as long as they do.  But if Teixeira comes back healthy and Reynolds returns as the backup, there's no place for Overbay next season.  Dump him.

Travis Hafner: I almost forgot Pronk was on the Yankees for a bit.  He was good for like a month before his annual injury.  They have absolutely no need for a left-handed DH who can't play the field.  Especially if they have to spread DH at-bats around to the regulars.  Dump him.

Kevin Youkilis: When they signed him, I was all about it.  Then he missed most of the season with a back injury.  A healthy Youkilis would've been useful and helpful to have.  Unfortunately, he was on that long list.  His health is too much of a risk, especially since Reynolds would be much cheaper and fill the exact same role.  Dump him.

Vernon Wells: Ah, Vernon.  Things started off so well.  Then he just looked old.  It worked out for a while, but then his playing time became greatly reduced after the Soriano trade.  But this season they paid for not re-signing Raul Ibanez.  I'm on the fence here.  He's a veteran whose bat still has some pop.  Bringing him back could easily turn into an Andruw Jones situation, though.  I can live with him staying, but I think it's more likely he goes.  Dump him.

Brendan Ryan: Why does everybody think this guy is the Second Coming?  He's been on the team for two weeks, and they only got him once they decided Jeter's season was over!  Sure, he's great at shortstop.  But he can't hit!  And they don't need a shortstop.  Jeter's coming back.  Dump him.

Chris Stewart: Letting Russell Martin leave as a free agent was one of the things that set this team back the most this season.  The Stewart-Cervelli/Romine/Murphy platoon didn't work as well as they had hoped.  Stewart played more than ever before, and he couldn't hit at all by the end of the season.  If they're going to make a run at somebody like Brian McCann, which I think they should, Stewart's expendable.  Dump him.

That's obviously a limited selection.  Guys like Gardner and Nova were obvious keeps, so I didn't feel the need to include them.  Likewise, I'd keep most of those guys in the bullpen, although some roles will be changed around next season.  Those guys are cheap and, for the most part, did a great job.  (One of the reasons the bullpen imploded was because of the workload.)  If Logan doesn't return, Cesar Cabral could become the lefty specialist, while Adam Warren could be good in Robertson's current eighth-inning role.  I also have confidence in Preston Claiborne, who got tired towards the end of the season.

We can rest assured, though, this is going to be a busy offseason in the Bronx.  Hank and Hal said they want to get the payroll down around $187 million, but how realistic is that?  If their father was still running the team, we know what the answer to that question would've been.  The last time the Yankees missed the playoffs in 2008, the offseason resulted in a spending spree that landed CC Sabathia, A.J. Burnett and Mark Teixeira.  And we all know what happened in 2009.

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