We've arrived at the most crucial weekend of the year for the Olympic Movement. This weekend in Buenos Aires, there will be three elections. The first is for the host of the 2020 Games. Then they'll decide which sport to add to those Games. Finally, the IOC will choose a new president after 12 years under Jacques Rogge's leadership. Since each vote is significant, let's look at them individually.
The three cities in contention for 2020 are Madrid, Tokyo and Istanbul. Unlike the last two host city elections, this one doesn't have a clear favorite. Most experts are saying that if they had to pick a favorite going in it would be Tokyo, but that doesn't mean Madrid and Istanbul have no chance. In fact, I think it's going to be an incredibly intriguing competition. All three bids have potential problems (either real or perceived), which has dominated the talk coming in, and the vote may be about which city poses the least risk. But all three are also intriguing for different reasons, and that could sway the vote in their favor.
The worries about Madrid mainly surround the Spanish economy, which is slowly but surely making its way back. But Madrid also has the cheapest budget and most of the venues are already built. Those are huge points in their favor. Likewise, many IOC members hold a lot of affection for the late IOC President Juan Antonio Samaranch. His beautiful speech is one of the primary reasons why Madrid was the finalist against Rio four years ago. Will Madrid be given the Games as one last gift in recognition of Samaranch's legacy?
I don't see Tokyo as this huge favorite that a lot of other people do. Technically, their bid is probably the strongest, and they have the most support locally and from the government. It's also no secret that, like London, Tokyo is one of the world's most important metropolises. And the Japanese economy is very strong. But there's still some concerns about spending billions of dollars on the Olympics when the country is still recovering from that devastating earthquake/tsunami. There's also a concern about radiation from a power plant that' near Tokyo. Finally, this is something that hasn't been mentioned that much, but I think is actually something that works against Tokyo more than anybody might think. The 2018 Winter Olympics are in Korea. Will the European-dominated IOC want to go to the Far East back-to-back (especially after a trip to South America)?
Then there's Istanbul, which would've been the odds-on favorite if this vote was held four months ago. Since then, though, there's been protests against the government, unrest in neighboring Syria, and a terrible doping scandal that resulted in the suspension of more than 30 Turkish athletes. The potential cost is also astronomical compared to the other two bids. But the things Turkey has on its side are still the same, and they're still very, very powerful. The Olympics have never been held in a Muslim country or on two different continents. Istanbul's the unique place that can accomplish both. After going to China and South America for the first time, with Africa seeming very likely soon, they can bring the Olympics to the Muslim world for the first time.
This vote is almost impossible to predict. Because the three bids are thisclose. I think Tokyo will win the first round. It'll be close, but Istanbul (which has been my choice the whole way) will finish third and get knocked out. However, Istanbul's voters will then vote for Madrid, proving that the third time once again is the charm. Their carry-over votes, plus those coming their way from Istanbul, will be enough to push Madrid over the edge and send the 2020 Olympics to the Spanish capital.
As for the sport that will join the program in Madrid, I'm not going to waste a lot of time on that. Because unlike the host city election, this one seems pretty straightforward. The IOC knows they made a terrible mistake when they decided to cut wrestling back in February. I'd be shocked if they didn't reverse course an reinstate the sport. This is nothing against squash and baseball/softball. If wrestling hadn't unexpectedly been thrown into this position of fighting for its Olympic life, squash would've been the odds-on favorite to gain that spot. But an Olympics without wrestling doesn't make sense to a lot of people. The IOC now realizes that. I don't want to say it's 100 percent guaranteed wrestling gets back in (these are the same people who voted it out), but I'd be just as shocked if it doesn't as I was when wrestling was unceremoniously cut in the first place.
Finally, there's the president vote, which actually might be the most significant of them all. There all six candidates, and they all have different ideas for the direction of the Olympic Movement. The favorite is German Thomas Bach, while Puerto Rico's Richard Carrion and Ng Ser Mian of Singapore are probably the most likely to join him in the finals. Ukrainian pole vault world record-holder Sergei Bubka is also a candidate, but he won't be a real contender for the presidency until it comes back up at the conclusion of whoever wins term (although, Bubka would make a great president of the IAAF, which will also be looking for a new one soon). The other two candidates are Denis Oswald of Switzerland and Taiwan's C.K. Wu. If it's not Bach, which would be a surprise, I'd say it'll likely be Ng, who would be the first IOC president from Asia.
But this is the IOC we're talking about. They're notoriously unpredictable. I won't be confident in a winner of any of these elections until that winner is actually announced.
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