The NFL season is here. The opener between the defending Super Bowl champion Ravens and the Broncos is currently in progress. Both of those teams, obviously, are in the AFC, and I already looked at the AFC in Part I of my NFL preview the other day. Today, it's the NFC, which I think will be a much more competitive conference this season.
While the best teams in the AFC are pretty clear, the NFC is much more wide-open. I can easily envision any one of a number of teams playing in Giants Stadium on February 2. But there are two other reasons why I think the NFC will be stronger. The first is that the NFC doesn't really have any "bad" teams. You can put Carolina and maybe Arizona in that category, but even they're better than the three worst teams in the AFC (Jaguars, Raiders, Jets), and they might be better than the likes of Buffalo, Tennessee and Cleveland, too. The other is because the NFC's middle-of-the-pack teams are much closer to the top-tier than middle-of-the-pack teams in the AFC. Take the NFC East, the most competitive division in football. You could easily see 9-7 finish first and 7-9 finish last. Speaking of the NFC East...
NFC East: There's no clear favorite here. The Redskins surprised everyone last season by making that incredible run to the division title. Led by RG3 and Co., Washington should be the favorites on paper. But I'm not sure about Griffin's health, and the Redskins won't be anywhere near as good without him. And that's why I can't say I think the Redskins will repeat. Especially since the NFC East teams are notorious for beating the crap out of each other. Take Dallas. The Cowboys are always a chic playoff pick, and they have a ton of talent, but they constantly manage to underachieve according to those predictions. But if Dallas ever gets it together, they'll be incredibly dangerous. Just ask every good team that loses to the Cowboys each year. Then there's the Giants. They're my favorite team, but they're so confusing, they drive me crazy sometimes. I have no idea whether they're going to go 11-5and win the division or 8-8 and miss the playoffs. They seem equally capable of doing either. In fact, they'll probably do their trademarked Jekyll and Hyde thing once again. Look out if you're a good team playing the Giants late in the season. As for the Eagles, I'm fascinated by them this season. Chip Kelly's thing worked at Oregon, but can it in the NFL? Either way, Philadelphia should be fun to watch. And, after more than a decade of Andy Reid, they really needed a change. That alone could mean a couple wins for the Eagles this season.
NFC North: In most NFL power rankings, the Packers are up there pretty high. That's because Green Bay is consistently one of the best teams in football. I don't see any reason why that would change this year. As long as they've got Aaron Rodgers, who might be the best quarterback in the game, the Packers are going to be a safe bet to make the playoffs. At the very least, they're the best team in this division. Adrian Peterson literally carried the Vikings on his back and right into the playoffs last season. Well, I don't see that happening again. Despite his grand predictions for 2,500 yards, I highly doubt Peterson will be able to repeat his ridiculous MVP numbers from 2012. And since Minnesota has little to nothing else, I'm having a hard time saying they'll be any better than 8-8 this season. Like the Giants, the Bears are very confusing. For the first half of last season, they looked like the best team in the NFC. Then they ended up finishing third in their division! And like the Eagles, the Bears made a coaching change that could yield interesting results. Marc Trestman's an offensive whiz. That should make Chicago much better offensively. But the Bears' defense isn't as good anymore. Will they pull a 180 and actually be better on offense than defense this season? Then there's the Lions. They're the fourth-best team in the division, which unfortunately means last place, but that's not a knock on Detroit. If they were in another division, they might be challenging for a playoff spot. As it is, I think they'll have a hard time contending.
NFC South: The Saints have been pretty vocal in their desire to "own" the NFC South. Problem is that team in Atlanta. New Orleans still has Drew Brees and gets Head Coach Sean Payton back, but that doesn't change the fact the Falcons are better. And you know Atlanta's going to have a chip on its shoulder after losing at home in the NFC Championship Game last year. As long as Matt Ryan, Roddy White and Julio Jones are healthy, I've gotta say the Falcons are the favorites in that division. I've never liked New Orleans, and I'm not sold on the Saints either. I think their overconfident. Sure you've got Drew Brees, but you're not going to win every game 35-31. Until that defense improves, I'm not going to buy what the Saints are selling. With that being said, though, do I think 10-6 and a wild card are out of the question? Absolutely not! If Sean Payton is coaching last year, New Orleans probably does get into the playoffs. Tampa Bay's been a team on the rise and a popular sleeper, but the Bucs took a step back last season. I think it's more likely they'll fall somewhere in the middle this season. Tampa Bay will hang around the wild card race for a little while, but ultimately end up in the 9-7/7-9 range. Carolina is a little like Detroit. Except the Lions are significantly better than the Panthers. Carolina will play some exciting games, but won't win many of them.
NFC West: Seattle is a popular Super Bowl pick. I just don't see it, though. How can the Seahawks be the best team in the NFC when they're not even the best team in their own division? That's still San Francisco, and the 49ers came within an uncalled pass interference penalty of winning the Super Bowl last season. With a full season of Colin Kaepernick under center, and mostly everyone else back, there's no reason to think the 49ers are going to have any sort of drop-off at all. That's why I don't get all this Seattle hype. Don't get me wrong, though. I do put the Seahawks in that handful of elite teams in the league. They're going to return to the playoffs, if for no reason other than the likelihood that they'll go undefeated at home again. That division race between the 49ers and Seahawks is going to be a good one. In their second year under Jeff Fisher, the Rams showed remarkable improvement. St. Louis is definitely on the way. Problem is they're in the same division as two really good teams. Of course, the Rams didn't lose to the 49ers at all last season, but it doesn't change the fact that, at best, they're the third-best team in the NFC West. After working wonders in Indianapolis last season, Bruce Arians was given his first full-time head coaching gig in Arizona. Unfortunately, though, I don't think the magic will carry over to the desert. Like St. Louis, Arizona's in the unfortunate situation of being in the same division as the 49ers and Seahawks.
Even though the races will likely be tight, I think there are five teams that stand out above the rest. Green Bay will win the North, Atlanta and New Orleans will both make the playoffs out of the South, and the 49ers-Seahawks rivalry will result in one winning the NFC West and the other getting a wild card berth. As for the East, not much separates the four. Whoever beats the others the most could end up being the one that wins the division. Since I'm not confident in Washington or Dallas, I'm going to say that'll be the Giants. After some intense playoff football, I'll take the Packers and Falcons to advance to the NFC Championship Game. And Atlanta makes up for its disappointment of last season by finishing the deal last time, earning a berth against the Broncos in the Super Bowl.
When Denver won the second of its back-to-back titles 15 years ago, it was the Falcons that the Broncos beat in the Super Bowl. Move the game a little bit north and into much colder conditions, and you've got a recipe for a similar result. Peyton wins his second title at Eli's home stadium.
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