Saturday, September 28, 2013

Week 4 NFL Picks

OK, so...last week sucked.  I needed wins on Sunday and Monday night just to get to .500.  Fortunately, the Bears and Broncos both pulled it out.  Cause that would've been simply embarrassing.  Hopefully, that means my bad week is also out of the way.  But of course, this week gives us some tough ones.  There are a lot of games between good teams that could go either way.  I feel bad for people who attach confidence points to their picks.  Because those middle games this week are very tough.  Hey, at least I'm off to a 1-0 start...

Ravens (2-1) at Bills (1-2): Baltimore-The Ravens head to Buffalo for their first road game since the season-opening debacle in Denver.  I think the real Baltimore Ravens have returned, though, winning handily against Houston last week.  I also thought the Bills-Jets game would be more competitive than it was.  Buffalo looked great against New England and beat Carolina, then go to the Meadowlands and lose the to Jets.  At least they're back at home.  Unfortunately, the Ravens have found their groove.

Bengals (2-1) at Browns (1-2): Cincinnati-I'm starting to come around on the Cincinnati Bengals.  They were especially impressive in that win over the Packers last week.  Cincinnati could end up winning the AFC North.  The Browns, meanwhile, traded Trent Richardson, then put up a 31-spot in Minnesota without him.  I don't get it.  The Bengals are a much better team than the Vikings, though.  Reality check time for Cleveland.  They'll probably be watching the Indians game anyway.

Bears (3-0) at Lions (2-1): Chicago-I really high on the Chicago Bears.  I know, I know.  I got like this last season, too, but this just feels different.  The Bears have an offense now.  The Lions got a confidence boost from winning in Washington for the first time ever last week, but the Redskins are reeling.  The Bears aren't.  Chicago wins.

Giants (0-3) at Chiefs (3-0): Kansas City-Talk about teams that are reeling, how about the New York Football Giants.  I thought last week was their chance to right the ship.  Then the Panthers put up 38 points on that defense while the offense does absolutely NOTHING.  Meanwhile, Andy Reid's NFC East Reunion Tour continues.  Seeing how frequently the Eagles beat the Giants when Reid was in Philly, and how much of a mess the Giants are right now, I think KC stays undefeated.

Steelers (0-3) vs. Vikings (0-3): Minnesota-These two have to travel all the way to London in pursuit of a win...and one of them will head back across the pond at 0-4.  I feel somewhat bad for the London fans.  They get two games this year.  This is one and the Jaguars are playing in the other.  Anyway, even without Christian Ponder, the Vikings are in better shape than the Steelers.  Adrian Peterson will run wild on the British "pitch."

Cardinals (1-2) at Buccaneers (0-3): Tampa Bay-Greg Schiano has benched Josh Freeman.  I don't think Freeman's the cause of the Bucs' problems, though.  They played two good games, probably should've won both, and weren't going to win in New England either way.  Yes, they got slaughtered, but what did you expect?  Anyway, hosting the Cardinals in an early game is a good remedy for what ails Tampa Bay.

Colts (2-1) at Jaguars (0-3): Indianapolis-Good news, people of Jacksonville.  This is a Jaguars home game, so you won't be forced to watch it.  After two straight games on the West Coast, the Jaguars get to lose at home, where they've scored a grand total of TWO points all season, this week.

Seahawks (3-0) at Texans (2-1): Houston-This is one of the best games of the week.  Seattle has looked unbeatable over the last two weeks.  But both of those games were in Seattle.  The Seahawks are a much different team when they don't have that deafening crowd behind them.  This week, on the road against a good team, we get to see what they're really made of.  I don't think they'll be undefeated anymore when they head home from Houston.

Jets (2-1) at Titans (2-1): Tennessee-The Titans have been one of the most surprising teams in the NFL this season.  Tennessee's going to make some noise this season.  Before Jets fans get too excited about their 2-1 record, I feel the need to point out that the wins came at home against Tampa Bay and Buffalo.  Not exactly teams that'll be coming back to the Meadowlands in February.  Another interesting tidbit, it was after that Monday night game in Nashville last year where the Jets decided that they were finally going to bench Mark Sanchez...and still not start Tebow.

Eagles (1-2) at Broncos (3-0): Denver-In my opinion, Denver, not Seattle, is the best team in football.  The Broncos have won each of their first three games handily.  And they can thank their division rival Chargers for the blueprint on how to slow down the Eagles' offense.   Denver wins to set up that monster showdown next week in Dallas.

Redskins (0-3) at Raiders (1-2): Washington-Is this the week Washington finally breaks its skid?  The Redskins are really feeling the effects of a limited Robert Griffin III.  The Raiders, meanwhile, are starting to resemble an NFL team again.  They might've found their quarterback in Terrelle Pryor (I wonder if he's gotten a Raiders tattoo yet).  This one could easily go either way, but Mike Shanahan always takes special pride in beating the Raiders.

Cowboys (2-1) at Chargers (1-2): San Diego-The final game of the NFC East at AFC West Extravaganza is Dallas-San Diego.  Both teams have followed similar trajectories this season.  The Cowboys have won a pair of home games and lost in Kansas City.  The Chargers have a pair of losses to AFC South foes and a victory in Philadelphia.  I'm still not a total believer in the Cowboys, even though they're the only NFC East team that's currently above .500.  Maybe I'll come around if they win in San Diego, but I'll take Phillip Rivers and the Chargers.

Patriots (3-0) at Falcons (1-2): Atlanta-You've already got obnoxious Patriots fans going on and on about their 3-0 record.  Calm down.  They've played the Bills, Jets and Bucs!  Did anybody not expect them to be 3-0 right now?  Atlanta's record is a surprise.  Not so much that they lost their opener in New Orleans, but that loss last week to the Dolphins was definitely surprising.  I think it says more about Miami than Atlanta, though.  If the Patriots win this week, then maybe their fans can start talking.  But this is a must-win for the Falcons.  I think they get it done.

Dolphins (3-0) at Saints (3-0): New Orleans-Somebody gets knocked from the land of the undefeated on Monday night.  The Saints want to prove that they're back among the NFL's elite teams.  I'm still not quite buying it, especially since the only game they played away from home they barely won.  New Orleans does always seem to play its best underneath the bright lights, though, and the lights don't get much brighter than Monday Night Football.  The 4-0 team will be the Saints.

BYE: Carolina, Green Bay

This Week: 1-0
Last Week: 8-8
Season: 31-18

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