For many football fans, this weekend is as good as it gets. It's not just playoff football, it's the eight best teams in the NFL (well, the seven best and Denver), and the Super Bowl is just two wins away. I don't expect the Divisional Playoffs to disappoint, especially in the NFC, where we have two outstanding matchups. I wouldn't be surprised to see either NFC game go either way. In the AFC, I can't say the same.
Saints (14-3) at 49ers (13-3): San Francisco-New Orleans is a popular pick to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl, but the Saints need to beat the 49ers first. The Saints are good. There's no arguing that. But what everyone's conveniently forgetting is how good the 49ers are. San Francisco earned a bye for a reason. And I think that's an important element in this game. If it was in the Superdome, the Saints offense would run up and down the field like they did against the Falcons, Panthers and Lions. New Orleans would win by 20. In San Francisco, things will be different.
For starters, the 49ers have a top-notch defense. It won't be as easy for the Saints to march up and down the field as everybody thinks. The Saints take pride in this running game that they supposedly have. Seeing as I've never seen it, I don't believe this New Orleans running game exists. They'll need to find one in order to keep the 49ers' defense on the field long enough to get tired. The 49ers, on the other hand, have a very good running game. Alex Smith doesn't need to do much. He just needs to turn around and give the ball to Frank Gore while doing enough not to lose the game. Keeping that New Orleans offense off the field will be key. If it comes down to special teams, it's clearly advantage San Francisco. The 49ers have the best special teams in football. No one gives the 49ers enough credit for being as good as they are. I think the most underrated team in football pulls out another one. Four David Akers field goals and a Gore touchdown gives San Francisco a 19-17 win.
Tebows (9-8) at Patriots (13-3): New England-Am I the only one who doesn't get Tebowmania? Maybe I missed the boat, but I don't see the obession with this guy. He was voted "America's Favorite Athlete" in a recent ESPN.com poll. Seriously? Denver made about three plays against Pittsburgh. That was enough to win, so I give them credit for that, but does anybody think they actually have any sort of a chance in New England? It was the Patriots that gave everyone the blueprint for how to beat him. (I'm surprised it took two months for somebody to figure it out. He's not a good quarterback. Make him stand in the pocket.) I'm not saying New England's defense isn't without its flaws, and I certainly don't think of them as a Super Bowl team, but that shouldn't matter that much. You know that the Patriots are salivating at the chance to play Tebow again instead of potentially losing to the Steelers.
This is truly a case of picking between the lesser of two evils. I hate the Patriots, but Tebowmania seriously needs to end. CBS loves its Saturday night Tebow vs. Brady matchup and the ratings it'll present. Again, I have no idea what the fascination with this guy is. But if given my choice between Tebow and Brady, believe it or not, I'll actually take Brady. The fact that Brady's team is better obviously helps, too.
Texans (11-6) at Ravens (12-4): Baltimore-The Ravens worked all year to finally beat the Steelers in the AFC South and get a home playoff game. Mission accomplished. Now they need to take advantage of that opportunity. It helps that, in my opinion, Baltimore is the best team in the AFC. The Texans went into the playoffs on a three-game losing streak, but once again looked like the team that started the season 10-3 in their win over Cincinnati. This is a very interesting matchup. The Texans are capable of winning, but they'll need to do a lot of things right in order to do so.
As always, the Ravens' bread-and-butter is their superb defense. But they also have one of the best all-around running backs in the game in Ray Rice. Will the Texans be able to stop him? If they can, Joe Flacco will need to be the one wins the game. Likewise, Baltimore needs to stop Houston's Pro Bowl running back Arian Foster. T.J. Yates did enough to win last week, but the Bengals' defense is nowhere near as good as Baltimore's. Whoever runs the ball better (or stops the run better) is going to win this game. I think that'll be the Ravens. Also, let's not forget the fact that it's supposed to snow in Baltimore on Sunday. For a team from Texas that's built to run the ball, that and the cold won't be a good combination. And just like their pumped up fans helped the Texans last week, the Ravens faithful won't need any extra motivation to get up for this game. Expect the Ravens to take full advantage of the crowd and get that home playoff win.
Giants (10-7) at Packers (15-1): Giants-This is by far the best matchup of the divisional round. Was any team more impressive last week than the New York Football Giants? The Giants defense is officially back. And that scares the Packers. More than anything, Green Bay wanted an Atlanta win last week. Because the Packers know first-hand how dangerous the Giants can be. The Giants defense didn't play well when these two met in Week 13. That's the primary reason Green Bay won that game to stay undefeated.
It's not going to be 38-35 again in Lambeau Field in January. Aaron Rodgers was sensational all season, which is why he's the likely MVP, but if the Packers win, he won't be the reason. This game's going to be won on the ground. In that frigid air, throwing the ball's going to be tough, reducing Rodgers and Eli to that dreaded role of "game managers." That's why I think the Giants have a real chance here. There's no questioning Rodgers' brilliance all season. If the Packers' offense is lacking anything, though, it's a solid running game. They'd love to simply have Rodgers air it out, which I'm not sure they'll be able to do. Especially since they'll have to go against the Giants' pass rush if they try. The Giants on the other hand, have a solid running game with Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs. It doesn't even really matter if Bradshaw plays. They both have the experience. Green Bay's defense is obviously good, but not as good as the offense. If the Giants are able to establish the run, the Packers will have to honor it, Eli will be able to go to the air, and Victor Cruz and Hakeem Nicks will take advantage of the one-on-one coverage.
I also think that despite the loss, the Week 13 game gave the Giants a ton of confidence. I compare this to four years ago, when the Giants played perhaps their best game of the season in a Week 17 loss to the undefeated Patriots, then beat New England a month later in the Super Bowl. Oh yeah, they beat the Packers in Lambeau in the NFC Championship Game that season, too. There are still a number of guys from that 2007 roster on this Giants team. They remember that. They also remember losing in Green Bay in a de-facto playoff game last season in Week 16 to effectively hand the Packers a wild card spot they rode all the way to the Lombardi Trophy. Call me an optimistic Giants fan, but I think history will repeat itself. The Giants are playing their best football of the season right now. Sure, they're on the road for the first time in a month. But that doesn't matter. The Giants pull off the upset in a close one.
Last Week: 3-1
Playoffs: 3-1
Overall: 170-90
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