It's so weird that the Australian Open takes place in the middle of January. The year just started, but here we are with tennis' first major upon us. I've always said that the Australian Open is the hardest of the four Grand Slams to predict. It takes place so early in the season that you have no idea what the fitness level for some of the top players is like. You also have no idea who's going to emerge as a force to be reckoned with this year. There's inevitably going to be some upsets in any Grand Slam tournament, but I think it's especially true Down Under.
But no matter who gets upset, there's little doubt that the men's tournament will probably be won by one of three people. It's the same three guys that win every tournament: Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer. World No. 4 Andy Murray can't be counted out either. He's been to the finals in Australia in each of the last two years. I'd be very surprised to see somebody other than one of those four to take home the trophy.
Looking at the draw, one thing's for certain. For the first time since the 2005 French Open, there's no possible way for the final to be Federer vs. Nadal. Since Djokovic is No. 1, it's possible for them to meet in the semis, and that's the case here. That could be an epic semifinal, especially with the comments Nadal made about Federer earlier this week. As hard to believe as it might be, if Federer doesn't win this tournament, we'll have gone a whole two years' worth of Grand Slams without him winning one (his last Grand Slam title was the 2010 Australian Open). We could also be looking at our third consecutive Roger-less final if he doesn't win that semi. Nadal always seems to have his number in Grand Slams, but I like the way Roger ended 2011. He's not done, and he's going to want to prove it in 2012. I can see an inspired Roger Federer really making a statement in this tournament.
Novak Djokovic is the defending champion, and his victory here really set the wheels in motion for a dominant 2011 season. I don't see Djokovic dominating men's tennis anywhere near as much as he did last season, but he has won each of last two Grand Slams and has to be considered the favorite. He's got some heavy hitters (Andy Roddick, David Ferrer, Radek Stepanek, Richard Gasquet) in his section of the draw, but I'd be very surprised not to see Djokovic at least reach the semis. As I mentioned already, Andy Murray can't be counted out. There's something about Australia that brings out his best tennis. But he's got a very tough potential quarterfinal against Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, the Frenchman who made the final here a couple years ago. Murray will have his hands full in that match, and it wouldn't surprise me to see Tsonga break the Big Four's stranglehold and reach the semis.
In fact, I'm taking Tsonga to reach the semis, where he'll lose to Djokovic. Roger vs. Rafa will be a round early, but now that we know there's some animosity between these two, that adds some (I think) necessary animosity to their rivalry. The winner of that match could dictate what kind of a year it'll be for Roger. Federer blew a two-set lead in the semis at both Wimbledon and the US Open last year. It sounds weird to say that the semifinal would be a "must win" for him, but I think it is. I also think he will win...before losing to Djokovic in the finals.
On the women's side, this might be the most wide open era in the history of the game. Truly anybody can win. How else do you explain the last three Grand Slam champions (Li Na, Petra Kvitova, Samantha Stosur) being completely random first-time winners? This year's Australian Open is no exception. I can't even handicap it. There are simply too many people with a chance to win.
Top-ranked Caroline Wozniacki has been out to justify her ranking with her first Grand Slam title for quite some time now. She probably should've won here last year, but had a complete meltdown against Li in the semis. Wozniacki's still the world's best player, but she wasn't done any favors with the draw. Kim Clijsters and Li Na could meet in a rematch of last year's final in the fourth round, with the winner then drawn against Wozniacki in the quarters. The road seems a little easier for No. 3 Victoria Azarenka, who has a relatively easy section of the draw. I think Azarenka is a legitimate contender for the title.
As long as Serena Williams is entered in a Grand Slam tournament, you have to at least include her in the discussion. Well, Serena's here, and she ended 2011 on a tear. But she's seeded 12th and had to drop out of the warm-up tournament, so I'm not really sure I see her lasting deep into the second week. Especially since Maria Sharapova, Vera Zvonareva, Dominika Cibulkova and Svetlana Kuznetsova are all in her section of the draw. Only one of the five can make the semis, but whichever one does just might win the whole thing. Of the three most recent Grand Slam winners, Kvitova's the one with the brighest future. Li and Stosur are veterans who'll probably be one Slam wonders, but Kvitova has risen to No. 2 in the world. Even still, I'm not sure her game holds up in the Melbourne heat. Stosur's the hometown favorite, but I don't see her winning. Everything clicked for her at the US Open. She needs lightning to strike twice in order to win the Australian Open. Although, the Aussie fans haven't had a legitimate Australian contender to cheer for on the women's side in quite some time, so that might make a difference.
As for the picks, this is tough. I think Wozniacki gets by Clijsters in the quarters, but once again falls short in her quest to win a Grand Slam title, as she'll fall to Azarenka in the semis. On the other side of the draw, I'm going with Zvonareva to get out of that monster Serena-Sharapova section, and a surprise in the bottom section of the draw. Even with Kvitova, Stosur and former world No. 1 (and former Australian Open finalist) Ana Ivanovic, I'm going with Maria Kirilenko to get to the semifinals against her countrywoman. Zvonareva beats Kirilenko in that semi, then loses to Azarenka, who takes her first Grand Slam title.
But in a field that's this wide open, you could probably pick a name out of a hat and there'd be a decent chance she'd end up in the women's semifinals. While you're surprised if it's NOT one of the Big Three on the men's side, you never know who's going to make a run among the women. That's part of what makes the Australian Open so fun, though.
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