Tomorrow we find out who, if anybody, joins the late Ron Santo in the Baseball Hall of Fame Class of 2012. To say that this year's class is unimpressive would be a tremendous understatement. Not only is the class of newcomers weak, none of the guys remaining on the ballot from last year immediately strike you as Hall of Famers. And regardless of what their numbers say, it doesn't look like Mark McGwire or Rafael Palmeiro is getting in anytime soon. The fact that the ballots in 2013 and beyond are loaded doesn't help matters either. None of these guys are going to get in next year or the year after or the year after that, so this is probably the best chance to actually get elected that they're going to have.
With that being said, I wouldn't be surprised to see Santo be the only player inducted in July (it's a shame Santo won't be there to give an induction speech that certainly would've been memorable). However, I think the writers are probably somewhat hesitant to go without electing anybody. As a result, I think Barry Larkin will likely get the call. I always considered Larkin a very good player, but I never thought of him as a Hall of Famer. I'd love to see Jack Morris finally get the recognition he deserves as the best pitcher of the 1980s, but he's probably going to fall a bit short. If not for steroids, Mark McGwire would've been a first-ballot inductee. As it is, his vote total has remained consistently around 25 percent since he became eligible. That's not going to change. Ditto for Rafael Palmeiro, who, like Larkin and Fred McGriff, I never really thought of as a Hall of Famer. The class of new guys is so pathetic that it's not even worth mentioning their names. The only guy that's going to even get enough votes to stay on the ballot is Bernie Williams.
Hall of Fame voters are given 10 places on their ballot. If I were a voter, I like to think I'd exhaust all 10 votes (or as close to it as possible) every year. Here's the 10 that I would've voted for in 2012, in order of what I consider their Hall of Fame worthiness:
1. Jack Morris, Starting Pitcher (1977-94 Tigers, Twins, Blue Jays, Indians)-I don't understand why Jack Morris has never received more of a look from Hall of Fame voters, who are probably hung up on his 3.90 career ERA. But Morris was the definition of an ace. He started 14 consecutive Opening Days and Game 1 of the World Series three times (for three different teams). Morris won more games than any other pitcher in the 1980s and had 254 career wins. He was also a five-time All-Star and four-time World Champion. And let's not forget Game 7 in 1991.
2. Mark McGwire, 1st Baseman (1986-2001 Athletics, Cardinals)-Yes, I rank Mark McGwire second among this year's candidates. His steroid use has obviously tainted his numbers in a lot of people's minds, and that's probably not going to change. We're all entitled to our opinion about him, but I'm a member of the minority about the stars of the Steroid Era. I consider McGwire's numbers legitimate, and there's no way anybody can convince me that a 12-time All-Star with 583 career home runs (not to mention that memorable 1998 season) DOESN'T belong in Cooperstown.
3. Barry Larkin, Shortstop (1986-2004 Reds)-My distinction between "great" and "very good" starts at Larkin, which is why I put him third. Personally, I don't see him as a Hall of Famer. But he is the third-best guy on this year's ballot. A lot of the argument for Larkin is that he was one of the most underrated players in history. Seeing as he played shortstop in the National League at the same time as Ozzie Smith that might be true. A 12-time All-Star and the 1995 NL MVP, Larkin was very good for a long time. That's enough to warrant consideration, but wouldn't be enough to get him elected in any year other than this one.
4. Edgar Martinez, Designated Hitter (1987-2004 Mariners)-He's the greatest DH in history, and people will eventually need to come to terms with the fact that DH is a position. Sure, Paul Molitor's in, but he only became a DH late in his career. Edgar never really had another position. Regardless, he's the all-time leader among DHs in a number of important statistics. He hit .312 in his career and had a ridiculous 514 doubles (didn't it seem like he got a double every time up?). I don't know how long it'll take the voters to finally put a DH in the Hall of Fame, but when they do, it better be Edgar Martinez.
5. Jeff Bagwell, 1st Baseman (1991-2005 Astros)-Without question, Jeff Bagwell is the greatest player in Astros history. It would be really cool if he and Craig Biggio went in together, and Biggio's not eligible until next year. As for Bagwell, it's no coincidence that the Astros' greatest success came during his prime. It's a shame that Bagwell wasn't able to play in the team's first World Series in 2005, though. In terms of numbers, he's the Astros' all-time leader in home runs (449) and RBIs (1,529), as well as the 1991 NL Rookie of the Year and 1994 NL MVP.
6. Tim Raines, Outfielder (1979-2002 Expos, White Sox, Yankees, Athletics, Orioles, Marlins)-For the sake of the Montreal Expos franchise being more than just a historical footnote, I'd love to see Tim Raines eventually elected to the Hall of Fame. Tim Raines was the second-best base stealer and leadoff hitter of his era. Unfortunately, the best base stealer and leadoff hitter of his era was the greatest one of all-time, Rickey Henderson. If not for that (perhaps unfair) comparison to Rickey, Raines' candidacy would look much better standing alone. He went to seven straight All-Star Games in the '80s and is the Expos' career leader in runs, triples and stolen bases. Raines finished his career with 808 steals, fifth all-time.
7. Larry Walker, Outfielder (1989-2005 Expos, Rockies, Cardinals)-I understand the criticism of Larry Walker. His numbers were significantly better at Coors Field than they were anywhere else. But he was productive during his time in Montreal before he ever played for the Rockies, as well as at the end of his career in St. Louis. And he won seven Gold Gloves, which has nothing to do with the thin air of Denver. A three-time batting champion and five-time All-Star, Walker ended his career with 383 home runs and a .313 batting average. Then there was his 1997 MVP season, which was truly sensational. A .366 average with 49 homers, 130 RBIs, 33 stolen bases, 409 total bases, and 12 outfield assists.
8. Bernie Williams, Outfielder (1991-2006 Yankees)-The only first-timer who'll get enough votes to even be on the 2013 ballot, Bernie Williams was arguably the best position player during the Yankees dynasty in the late '90s. Probably because of that, he's the all-time leader in postseason games played, RBIs and extra base hits. He also hit 22 postseason home runs. He's also pretty high up there on the Yankees' all-time lists in a number of categories. Bernie's probably never going to have a plaque in Cooperstown. But he will eventually get a plaque in Monument Park, and No. 51 is going on the center field wall at Yankee Stadium. For a career Yankee who's not quite a Hall of Famer, that might be an even greater honor.
9. Lee Smith, Closer (1980-97 Cubs, Red Sox, Cardinals, Yankees, Orioles, Angels, Reds, Expos)-Until the two greatest relief pitchers ever (Mariano Rivera and Trevor Hoffman) broke it, Lee Smith held the record for career saves. But he wasn't the great closer that Hall of Famers Bruce Sutter, Goose Gossage, Dennis Eckersley and Rollie Fingers were. That's why Smith has never gotten serious consideration. If he was so valuable, why did he bounce around to so many different teams? It's impressive that he compiled so many saves for so many bad teams, but his career record was below .500, and he was the first of the real "modern" closers that only pitched one inning. Regardless, Lee Smith's save total can't be ignored.
10. Don Mattingly, 1st Baseman (1982-95 Yankees)-Don Mattingly is never going to be elected to the Hall of Fame. I know this. But I'm allowed to reserve my last vote for a sentimental favorite. He was the best player on the Yankees at a time when they weren't very good. His career numbers (.307 average, 222 homers, 1,099 RBIs) probably would've been better if he wasn't limited by injuries late in his career, but he was one of the best players in the American League throughout the 1980s. And there's no question that he was the best defensive first baseman of his era in the AL. But like Bernie, his Yankee legacy with his number retired and a plaque in Monument Park is probably more than enough for Donnie Baseball.
As for 2013 and beyond, that's when things get "fun." I'm somewhat tempted to say that I'd vote for six newcomers on next year's ballot, but that's a discussion for next January.
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