Saturday, September 24, 2011

Week 3 Picks

That's more like it.  After a shaky start (8-8), I rebounded by going 12-4 last week.  This week, we have one of those lockout-protection weeks that the NFL built into the schedule.  Every game this weeked is a matchup of two teams that have a common bye.  Of course, that's no longer relevant because the lockout didn't cancel any regular season games, but it remains an interesting little factoid.  As for the matchups themselves, there are seven 2-0 teams.  Four are surprises (Buffalo, Detroit, Houston, Washington) and three are not (Green Bay, New England, Jets).  There are also seven 0-2 teams, two of which (Indianapolis, Kansas City) won their divisions last season.  At least one of the undefeated teams has to lose (New England visits Buffalo), while some of the winless teams have winnable games.  And with that, time for the picks...

Patriots at Bills: New England-The Bills are a surprising 2-0, mainly because they've played the Chiefs and the Raiders.  But they haven't beaten the Patriots since Week 1 of the 2003 season.  One of these teams won't be undefeated anymore after this game.  That team will be Buffalo.

49ers at Bengals: San Francisco-Cincinnati is technically favored in this game, but frankly, who really cares?  I think the 49ers are a better team (they should've beaten Dallas last week), so they're the pick.

Dolphins at Browns: Cleveland-Miami's not a very good team.  Cleveland isn't either, but the Browns are better than the Dolphins.  I'm not really sure how it worked out this way, but Cleveland doesn't play a team that was above .500 last season until December.  As a result, the Browns could end up with a pretty good record going into the season's final month.

Broncos at Titans: Tennessee-Our third straight "Who cares?" game of the week.  The game's in Nashville, so I'm taking the Titans.

Lions at Vikings: Detroit-Yes, the Lions might be a surprising 2-0, but I think this team is for real.  They're definitely on the way up, and the playoffs are a real possibility.  The Vikings have a chance to get their first win at home, but I think Detroit stays undefeated instead.

Texans at Saints: Houston-Outside of Buffalo, the 2-0 team most likely to lose this week is Houston.  The Texans visit a Saints team that dropped 34 on the Packers and 30 on the Bears.  Both of those defenses are better than Houston's.  The Saints take this one.

Giants at Eagles: Philadelphia-The Giants needed a win last week and got one against the Rams.  Meanwhile, Michael Vick got hurt and the Eagles completely fell apart in Atlanta.  This is the first meeting between the rivals since Matt Dodge, DeSean Jackson and the beginning of the Giants' December collapse.  The Eagles have owned this rivalry of late, and if the Giants couldn't even win that game in December, I'm certainly not taking them in Philly.

Jaguars at Panthers: Jacksonville-It's the 1995 Expansion Bowl!  There's a definite possibility here that Cam Newton picks up his first NFL win.  But I'm picking Jacksonville for some reason.

Jets at Raiders: Jets-In the first two weeks of the season, the Jets won a game they should've lost against the Cowboys, then absolutely dominated the Jaguars.  Now they head cross-country for their first road game of the year.  Fortunately, their opponent is the Raiders.  They should be 3-0 going into that Sunday night showdown in Baltimore next week.

Ravens at Rams: Baltimore-Here's what we know about the Baltimore Ravens: In Week 1, they absolutely destroyed their archrival Steelers.  In Week 2, they laid an egg in a loss to the Titans.  Which Ravens team shows up against the Rams?  I think it's the Good Ravens.  Although, St. Louis is in bigtime need of a win, which makes them a dangerous opponent in what could definitely be a trap game as the Ravens look ahead to the Jets.

Chiefs at Chargers: San Diego-For all those people who thought the Chiefs were anything other than a One-Year Wonder, look no further than the aggregate 89-10 score in losses to those powerhouse teams the Bills and Lions.  The Chargers are 1-1, but the loss came in Foxboro and can easily be forgiven.  San Diego finished a game behind Kansas City last year, in part because of a Week 1 loss to the Chiefs.  A win here goes a long way towards making sure that doesn't happen again.

Packers at Bears: Green Bay-The NFC Championship Game rematch is FOX's national game this week.  There isn't really that much insight I can provide about this contest.  I'm expecting a typical smashmouth Packers-Bears game.  But Aaron Rodgers is in a different league now, and the Bears aren't as good as they were last season.  As a result, I think the Super Bowl champs will win in Chicago for the second time in nine months.

Cardinals at Seahawks: Seattle-There's nothing like NFC West football.  The Cardinals probably should be 2-0, but choked in the fourth quarter last week in Washington.  This week they're in Washington again, Washington state, against the defending division champs.  The Seahawks have Falcons and at Giants in the next two weeks, so they would really like a win against Arizona.  I think they get one.

Falcons at Buccaneers: Atlanta-If Tampa Bay wants to be the NFC South giant-killer some experts think they can be, a win over the Falcons would make a nice statement.  But I think we all learned something about Atlanta last week.  The same team that got crushed by the Bears in Week 1 got what might end up being a signature win over their former quarterback and his new team last week on Sunday night.  Atlanta's the better team, and I think the Falcons ride the momentum of that victory over the Eagles to a road win in Tampa.

Steelers at Colts: Pittsburgh-When the NFL and NBC chose this as the Sunday night game, it was supposed to be a great matchup between Ben Roethlisberger and Peyton Manning.  Unfortunately, Peyton won't be playing.  The Colts aren't the same team without him, which takes all of the luster off what should be a marquee early-season matchup.  After that disastrous opener, the Steelers righted the ship by thumping the Seahawks last week.  The Colts are eventually going to win a game without Peyton.  It just won't be this week.

Redskins at Cowboys: Dallas-It's safe to say that I won't be watching the Monday night game this week.  As a good, loyal Giants fan, I hate both Dallas and Washington (although I hate the Redskins a little more).  In Week 1, the Cowboys lost a game they probably should've won.  In Week 2, they won a game they probably should've lost.  Washington is somehow 2-0 and leads the NFC East.  But the Redskins played two home games and the Cowboys played two road games.  This is the first game at Jerrywood since the Super Bowl.  Playing in their home opener, against their hated archrivals, on Monday Night Football, the Cowboys will win the game and create a three-way tie for first.

Last Week: 12-4
Season: 20-12

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