Yesterday in Part I of my 2011 NFL preview, I looked at the AFC. Today it's the NFC. Like the AFC, the NFC is wide open. Unlike the AFC, the top teams in the NFC aren't as clear. Whereas I think the six AFC playoff teams are clear cut, that's not the case in the NFC. This much is for sure, though: the Eagles and Packers are really good.
East
Redskins quarterback Rex Grossman has predicted that Washington will win this division. Rex Grossman is wrong. Unless the team that's listed at the bottom of the standings is the one that's in first place. The team that will actually win the NFC East this season is the Philadelphia Eagles. This prediction is obviously a painful one for me to make, but I'm working in the realm of objectivity here. And objectively, Philly was clearly a winner in free agency. They somehow managed to pull off the steal of all steals when they nabbed Nnamdi Asomugha to go along with Asante Samuel. Seriously, how is anybody going to throw the ball against this defense? And getting rid of Kevin Kolb made it pretty clear that this is Michael Vick's team. With Vick and DeSean Jackson, the Eagles' offense is just as good as their defense. The Eagles won the division last year (with a little help from the Giants), but lost to the Packers in the playoffs. Philly's better this year.
The battle for second place will be between the Giants and Cowboys. The Giants have tried hard to NOT make the playoffs in each of the last two seasons, missing out on the final day in 2009 and 2010. Frankly, I think they were a better team last year. But I also wouldn't be at all surprised to see them go 10-6 again. The Giants are one of the most frustrating teams in football in that they'll play a great game and beat a good team, then lay an egg and lose to Carolina. To get back to the playoffs, they need to limit the number of eggs they lay. And they need to find some way to beat the Eagles. Dallas is similar to the Giants in that you never know what you're going to get from them. Their defense is solid and so is Tony Romo. 12-4 is definitely possible. So is 6-10. Unfortunately, 6-10 is the best the Redskins can expect. For a team that's already not that good to not get any better in the offseason and go into the season in a tough division with Rex Grossman at quarterback, last place is about the best they can realistically expect.
North
Consider this: basically any Packer you can think of was hurt at some point last year, including enough guys to fill a starting lineup on IR in the postseason, yet they won the Super Bowl. All of those guys are actually healthy coming into this season. That's just scary. If injuries weren't able to slow the Packers down last season, I don't know how anybody's going to stop Green Bay this year. They aren't the best team in football, but it wouldn't be a surprise to see them defend their title, either.
After years in the cellar, the Detroit Lions have finally freed themselves from the stigma of Matt Millen. In fact, I think the Lions have an outside shot at the playoffs. They're not a playoff team yet, but they're certainly on the way. I kind of like to compare them to the Pittsburgh Pirates. Now that the Pirates are out of the race, .500 is their goal. I think that's what the Lions should strive for, as well. Then next year or the year after we'll be talking about the Lions as a playoff team. The Bears were really good last year, but will probably come back to the pack a little this season. That seems to be Chicago's standard M.O. They're really good one year, then go 6-10 the next. Jay Cutler is better than he's given credit for, though. If the offense can play up to the same standard it did last season and the Bears defense continues to be the Bears defense, a return to the playoffs could be in store. That won't be the case in Minnesota. The post-Favre era begins with Donovan McNabb at quarterback. Personally, I don't think McNabb was ever appreciated in Philadelphia and Washington simply wasn't the right situation for him. Neither is Minnesota. They probably would've been better off keeping Tavaris Jackson.
South
This is possibly the most competitive division in football. The Saints won the Super Bowl two years ago, the Falcons won the division last season, and the Bucs are definitely contenders, as well. Of the three, I think New Orleans is the best team. They got caught up in a stretch of a bad couple weeks last season, which is what cost them the division, and that playoff game in Seattle was obviously something they'd like to have back. But Sean Payton is one of the best coaches in the game and Drew Brees is a master at running that offense. Plus, Darren Sproles can do a lot more things than Reggie Bush can. The Falcons are still good, as well, and the addition of Julio Jones to an already strong passing game just makes them that much better. But the flaws that the Packers exposed in that playoff thumping need to be fixed. And with the NFL's insistence to schedule all of the NFC South's division games in December, the Falcons need to play their best football down the stretch if they have any hope of winning the division.
I don't think Tampa Bay is going to be a playoff team. But the Bucs can certainly play the role of spoiler. Tampa Bay's going to beat some good teams this year. They're a young team, though. That inexperience is probably what's going to cost them a playoff spot. But it might also be what makes them a playoff contender. The Falcons and Saints better watch out, because the Bucs could definitely jump in there and make a run if they slip up. The Panthers are just a hot mess. They were the worst team in football last year and won't be this year only because the Cincinnati Bengals are still in the league. And drafting Cam Newton wasn't a good decision. He's not going to be the quarterback everybody thinks he is.
West
The one prediction I'm going to make about this sorry division is that whoever wins it this season will have a record better than 7-9. I'm not saying it won't be an 8-8 team that wins the NFC West, but we're not going to have to deal with that ridiculous situation of a sub-.500 team hosting a playoff game again. My pick for that 9-7/8-8 division winner is the St. Louis Rams. The Rams probably should've won this division a year ago, and there isn't really much stopping them this season. All St. Louis needs to do is get out to a good start and a playoff berth should be in the cards. If the Rams don't get off to a quick start, the Seahawks could defend their division title. The big difference in Seattle this season is obviously the fact that Tavaris Jackson is their quarterback instead of Matt Hasselbeck. Talk about a guy who wasn't fully appreciated, try Matt Hasselbeck. But I think his problem is more that he wore out his welcome than anything else.
The 49ers were the chic pick by most (including me) to win the NFC West last season. That, of course, did not happen. As a result, Mike Singletary was fired. They replaced him with Jim Harbaugh, who I think is a tremendous hire. San Francisco's glory days in the 1980s featured a tremendous West Coast offense executed masterfully by Hall of Famers Joe Montana and Jerry Rice. Harbaugh kept former No. 1 overall pick Alex Smith as his quarterback, which might prove to be a bad move, but in this division, Smith and Braylon Edwards going adequate Montana and Rice impressions might be enough. After winning the division in back-to-back years and going to the Super Bowl three years ago, the Cardinals sure reverted back to being the Cardinals in a hurry. Ken Whisenhunt doesn't think Matt Leinart's good. He's entitled to his opinion, but I think he's wrong. Leinart's certainly better than Derek Anderson and those other schmos they put under center last year. He's also better than Kevin Kolb, who is at least an upgrade over that stellar trio of Pro Bowlers they used at quarterback last season. Kurt Warner's not coming back anytime soon. The Cardinals will be fine when they get their Sam Bradford, but right now, that's still a huge area of need.
The top three teams in the NFC are Philadelphia, Green Bay and New Orleans. However, they're just slightly above the rest. The battle for the wild cards is going to be wide open between the Giants, Cowboys, Falcons, Bucs and even the Lions. I've got the Falcons and Giants winning the wild cards to join division-winners Philadelphia, Green Bay, New Orleans and St. Louis in the playoffs. And in the NFC Championship Game, the Eagles will beat the Packers to set up a Super Bowl matchup with the Jets. (It really pained me to write that last sentence. Now I know how Mets fans felt during the 2009 World Series.) As for the Super Bowl pick, I'm taking the Eagles to win their first NFL championship since 1960.
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