Down to Six for 2020

The IOC's deadline to submit bids for the 2020 Olympics was today, and six cities submitted bids.  Sadly, one didn't come from South Africa, which would've been a prohibitive favorite (with Rio hosting in 2016, Africa is the only continent left).  There was some talk that Durban would bid, but it looks like they're going to hold off until 2024.  Regardless, whenever South Africa decides it wants to bid for an Olympics next, I'd be very surprised if it isn't successful.  And much to the disappointment of IOC President Jacques Rogge, the United States didn't submit a bid either.  The USOC and IOC are still trying to work out a revenue-sharing deal, which probably contributed to New York 2012 and Chicago 2016's losses.  With that still up in the air, the USOC wisely decided not to waste millions of dollars on a bid that would ultimately be unsuccessful.  In addition, an American bid for the 2022 Winter Olympics appears likely, and I think that one might have a pretty good chance.

So, we're down to six.  We know this much: the 2020 Olympics will either be in Europe or Asia.  It's split evenly down the middle.  Madrid, Rome and Istanbul in Europe, Tokyo, Doha and Baku in Asia.  The IOC will likely narrow it down to four finalists before picking a host city in 2013.  Before handicapping the race, here's a look at the six cities, starting with the three that have little to no chance:

Baku, Azerbaijan-This was the surprise bid of the bunch, and it's also the only bid that has absolutely no chance of hosting the Olympics.  Baku has bid in the past, failing to make the short list for 2016.  If, as I suspect, they go from six to four, Baku will be one of the cities dropped.

Tokyo, Japan-Are they serious?  I'm not exactly sure why Tokyo submitted a bid.  The 2018 Winter Olympics are in Korea, and they're not going to put back-to-back Games in Asia, let alone back-to-back Games in the Far East.  In my opinion, the money being used on the Tokyo bid that's going to fail would be much better spent elsewhere.  For starters, there was a pretty serious earthquake and tsunami in Japan earlier this year.

Istanbul, Turkey-Poor Istanbul continues to bid for the Olympics, even though the chances for success are about the same (not great) each time.  The Turkish Olympic Committee has said that it will bid until Istanbul finally gets to host an Olympics, and they've been men of their word.  This is the fifth Istanbul bid in the last six Olympics.  The only one that they've taken off was 2016.  That persistence might pay off eventually, but not this time.

Doha, Qatar-This is the most interesting of the six bids.  Doha bid for the 2016 Games and actually scored higher than Rio in the early rankings, but wasn't named a candidate.  The Qatari Olympic Committee and government in their delusional states said that the IOC was trying to "close the door on the Arab world."  No.  It's because it's 120 degrees in Doha in August and the IOC didn't want to hold the Games in October!  But this time they gave Qatar permission to hold the Olympics outside the July-August window the IOC prefers, so the bid has gone ahead.  If the IOC was still allowed to accept bribes in exchange for votes, I'd like Doha's chances, but they won't be able to simply buy the Olympics the way they bought the World Cup.  Despite how technically good a Doha bid might be on paper, I think that autumn timeframe, as well as some of Qatar's extreme political stances, will be frowned upon by a number of IOC voters.  Besides, there's still been no indication that Doha would successfully be able to pull off an Olympics.  People weren't sure about South Africa until last year's World Cup proved to everyone that South Africa will make a tremendous Olympic host.  The 2020 Olympics are two years before Qatar hosts the World Cup.  If the 2022 World Cup is a success, I have no doubt Qatar will eventually get to host an Olympics, as well.  But they'd be advised to wait until after the World Cup to make the Olympic bid.

Rome, Italy-Rome was the first city to officially bid for the 2020 Olympics, announcing its bid a year and a half ago.  Rome is looking to host for the second time 60 years after doing it for the first time.  Those 1960 Games were not only successful, they ushered the Olympics into a new era.  They were the first to be televised.  2020 is also the 150th anniversary of Rome being named capital of a united Italy.  Rome was considered the favorite going into the 2004 vote before the IOC decided to instead bring the Olympics home to Athens.  Italy then hosted the Winter Games two years later in Torino.  The fact that it's a European capital, as well as one of the most beautiful cities on Earth and a popular tourist destination all work in Rome's favor.  But I wonder if the IOC would be hesitant to go back to Italy so soon after Torino.  Regardless, the Rome bid is very solid and will be among the favorites for the duration of the bid process.  The fact that numerous sports regularly hold their World Championships in Rome also works in the city's favor.

Madrid, Spain-I'm installing Madrid as the early favorite.  Pyeongchang finished second in its bids for the 2010 and 2014 Winter Olympics before finally earning the right to host the 2018 Games.  Will the third time be the charm for Madrid, as well?  Madrid finished third for next summer's London Games (when it was actually the highest vote-getter in the second round), then placed second to Rio in its bid for the 2016 Olympics.  The only major European capital never to have hosted the Olympics, Madrid is chomping at the bit for the chance.  They might've won the 2016 Games if not for the fact that Madrid hosting would've meant three Olympics in a row in Europe (2012 London, 2014 Sochi) while South America still never would've hosted.  That's not a problem this time.  The 2012 bid was good.  So was the 2016 bid.  Obviously, this one is good as well.  Madrid's persistence is going to pay off eventually.  And with a South African bid looking likely for 2024, as well as the U.S. jumping back into the ring at some point in the near future (not to mention a likely Toronto bid coming up soon), this might be Madrid's chance.  This is Madrid's third straight Olympic bid.  They know the process.  They've also obviously built some good relationships with IOC members.  That all works in Madrid's favor.  So does the probability that the IOC would want to take an opportunity to go to Europe with little controversy.  Bringing the Olympics back to Spain would also be a nice way to honor the legacy of a man who did so much for the Olympic movement, late IOC President Juan Antonio Samarach.

The way I see it right now, this is a two-horse race between Madrid and Rome.  Doha will be a finalist and probably finish third, but that city's not ready to host an Olympics yet.  And, even though they're in two completely different parts of the world, South Korea and Qatar are still on the same continent, and back-to-back Games in Asia isn't going to happen.  If they narrow it down to four, which I think they will, that last spot is between Tokyo and Istanbul.  Tokyo probably has a slight edge over Istanbul, but all those two cities are fighting for is the opportunity to be the first one knocked off the final ballot.

We're still two years away from finding out which city will get the opportunity to host the 2020 Olympics, but right now all signs point to Madrid.  Earlier this year, Pyeongchang finally won the right to host an Olympics on its third straight bid.  I'd be surprised if the same doesn't happen for Madrid.