Friday, September 30, 2011

Playoff Preview

Four teams still in the playoff hunt.  Three amazing games that ended within minutes of each other.  Two epic collapses that are now complete.  One incredible night of baseball.  Zero tiebreaker games that were necessary.  And that was just the appetizer.  Now it's time for the entree.  Hopefully it's just as delicious.

That Red Sox-Phillies World Series everybody thought was inevitable in March?  Not gonna happen.  Defending World Champion Giants?  Not for long.  Tampa Bay Rays, Team of Destiny?  Maybe.  Entering the 2011 postseason, I have no idea what's going to happen.  And that's what's so great about the month of baseball we have to come.  I can easily see any of the four American League teams winning the pennant, and I think the Phillies' "inevitable" march to the World Series could seriously be derailed by that feisty bunch in Milwaukee.  Playoff baseball is here.  I can't wait.

Yankees-Tigers
Since the Braves pissed away their wild card lead and that incredible Braves-Brewers series I was looking forward to, Yankees-Tigers becomes the best Division Series matchup.  I can honestly see this one going either way.  The Yankees have the best lineup in the American League, but the Tigers have the best pitcher on the planet.  And the Game 1 matchup at Yankee Stadium is the same as it was six months ago when these two teams met on Opening Day: Sabathia vs. Verlander.  But the Justin Verlander the Yankees saw on March 31 isn't the same Justin Verlander they'll see on September 30.  He's the reason I can definitely see the Tigers in the World Series, but not the only reason.  That lineup is incredibly underrated, and the rest of the rotation (Doug Fister, Max Scherzer, Rick Porcello) can certainly hold its own.  With Verlander pitching twice, the Yankees have to win all three of the remaining games.  And we'll find out whether the three-man rotation is a really smart move or an incredible mistake.  CC hasn't pitched in a week, so let's see if he's rusty in Game 1.  Then he'll come back on short rest in Game 4 (if there is one).  But that makes the Game 5 matchup Verlander vs. Ivan Nova.  That's why if the Yankees are going to win this series, they have to do it in four.  I'm not sure that happens.  Tigers in five.

Rangers-Rays
This is a rematch of last year's crazy Division Series in which the road team won every game.  The Rays certainly have that "Team of Destiny" thing going, but they're the only team in the American League that won't be throwing their ace in Game 1.  Instead, it'll be rookie Matt Moore against all-star C.J. Wilson.  But the pitching matchup favors Tampa Bay after that, as the Rays have Shields, Hellickson, Price in Games 2-4.  And if there's a Game 5, it would likely be James Shields on normal rest against Wilson.  The Rangers, however, are the defending American League champs.  And I don't need to tell you how good their lineup is.  It'll be up to Tampa Bay's pitching to shut the Texas offense down.  Even if they do that, though, will the Rays be able to hit enough?  I'm also curious if their incredible September run will carry over into October.  Remember the 2007 Rockies?  It definitely feels like the 2011 Rays could be that team.  But again, the Texas offense might just be too strong.  They went five last year, and I wouldn't be surprised if that happened again.  I don't think it will, though.  I think the magic carries over for at least one round.  Rays in four.

Phillies-Cardinals
Who are we kidding here?  The Phillies didn't care if they played the Diamondbacks or the Cardinals in the Division Series.  St. Louis has a slightly better chance of giving them a series, but for them, the only intrigue going into the NLDS is wondering whether or not Albert's playing his final games in a Cardinals uniform.  Even with that historic Braves collapse, I'm still not really sure how the Cardinals made the playoffs.  Regardless, here they are.  Chris Carpenter pitched the must-win game on Wednesday night, meaning he won't be available until Game 3.  And he might be in another must-win situation in that game.  It's Kyle Lohse and Edwin Jackson against Phillies co-aces Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee in Games 1 and 2.  Giants pitching shut down the Phillies' lineup in the NLCS last season.  That's why San Francisco won.  The 2010 Giants had a much better pitching staff than the 2011 Cardinals.  If Matt Holliday can't go, the St. Louis lineup takes a big time hit, and the Cardinals are going to need all the offense they can get against Philadelphia' trio of aces.  We saw what the Phillies did to the best offense in the National League in last year's division series.  It's great to see the Best Baseball Town in America's team  back in the postseason.  But the Cardinals won't be staying long.  St. Louis might steal a game, but they're not going to win three.  Not against this Phillies team.  Phillies in three.

Brewers-Diamondbacks
Other than (obviously) the St. Louis Cardinals, there's probably no team happier the Braves choked than the Arizona Diamondbacks.  A Phillies-Diamondbacks series would've been even worse than Phillies-Reds was last year.  Instead they get the Brewers, which I don't think is much better.  Tampa Bay has that team of destiny feel.  So does Milwaukee.  They won a franchise-record 95 games and their first division title in 29 years, when they played in the AL East.  Plus, they're unbelievable at home in front of that rabid fan base.  Think that No. 2 seed and the extra home game was important to the Brewers?  We all know about that offense with Ryan Braun, Prince Fielder, Rickie Weeks and Corey Hart.  But let's not forget, Milwaukee's also got a pretty solid rotation of Zack Greinke, Yovani Gallardo, Shaun Marcum and Randy Wolf.  Kirk Gibson has to be the NL Manager of the Year for the work he did in Arizona this year.  I seriously still don't know how the Diamondbacks made the playoffs.  But the Diamondbacks don't have a chance in this series.  The Brewers are a much better team.  I've been saying all along that they'll give the Phillies a run for their money.  I was really hoping for that Brewers-Braves series that seemed pretty certain even a week ago.  That series would've been a classic.  This one won't be.  The Diamondbacks win one of their home games, but that's it.  Brewers in four.

1 comment:

  1. Yeah, it's pretty ridiculous that as the team that won its division by seven games about two weeks ago, the Yankees are rewarded by facing Verlander and the Tigers in a short series, while the WC team, the Rays, get the much easier Rangers. Seems just slightly unfair, no?

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