What to Do About the World Cup?

As much as we'd all like to believe sports and politics can be kept separate, sometimes it's unavoidable.  Sometimes sports and politics are so intertwined that it's impossible to keep them apart.  Especially when it comes to large-scale international sporting events.  Politics are why we've had Olympic boycotts and Olympic bans.  Politics are why "Chinese Taipei" is a thing and Israel, despite being in Asia, is a member of the European federation in every sport.  And, you can ask just about any athlete from Ukraine about how sports, politics and war have intersected over the past four years.

Unfortunately, this summer's World Cup has become one of those unavoidable intersections of sports and politics.  Iran was the first country to qualify for the World Cup.  The United States is the primary host of the World Cup, and Iran's three games are all scheduled to take place in the U.S.  The United States just started a war with Iran.  To say that "complicates" Iran's participation would be an understatement.

Iranian fans were already not allowed to travel to the World Cup because of the U.S. travel ban, but the team is qualified and still welcome.  FIFA President Gianni Infantino has reiterated that.  So has Donald Trump, who also "suggested" that Iran should consider withdrawing "for their own safety."  Which is similar to the position taken by Iran's Sports Minister, whose reasons for considering withdrawal are obviously much different.

While no decision has been made, I don't see any way in which Iran participates in the World Cup.  For a variety of reasons.  The optics are impossible to ignore.  It would be an uncomfortable situation all around, and Iranian players would be thrust right into the middle of it!  Which is something you don't want.  That's if they're even able to get the team together for training, travel to the U.S., etc., all of which are uncertain right now.

The Iranian women's team has already had very real issues.  They were in Australia for the Women's Asian Cup.  They arrived before the war started, but, by the time they were eliminated, the war had broken out, Iranian airspace was closed, and it was impossible to fly into Tehran.  They stayed in Australia for a few extra days (and five players were granted asylum) while officials tried to figure out travel arrangements before finally making their way to Malaysia.  When and how they'll make it back to Iran is anybody's guess.

FIFA likely won't require Iran to make its decision on any set timetable.  Nor should they.  However, they do need to start thinking about contingency plans.  Because more nations than just Iran will be impacted by whatever is ultimately decided.  And, for the sake of those countries, hopefully it's determined soon.  Ideally before the final qualifying tournament at the end of the month.

Four years ago, FIFA backed into lucking out with the late World Cup because COVID delays pushed the end of qualifying into March.  That's apparently a regular thing now, since the draw was made in December despite six teams not being qualified yet.  Those final qualifiers are set for the March FIFA international window, with the two intercontinental tournaments set for Mexico as World Cup tune-up events.

One of those intercontinental playoffs is set to feature Iraq playing a winner-take-all game against the winner of Suriname-Bolivia.  However, because of the instability in the Middle East, Iraq's ability to even get to Mexico for that tournament is in question.  Iraqi airspace is closed until at least April 1, making it difficult for the players and coaches to travel anywhere outside the region.  And, many of the players who are based in Iraq can't even get visas to enter Mexico right now.

With all of this uncertainty and turmoil, Iraq was already forced to cancel its scheduled training camp in Houston.  But their coach would like to take it one step further.  He's requested that FIFA postpone the playoff (at least Iraq's game).  The country is looking reach the World Cup for the first time in 40 years (which was, coincidentally, also in Mexico).  This qualifier is obviously a big deal for Iraq.  It wouldn't be right to make them play their most significant game in four decades without their first-choice squad, which he feels would be impossible if the playoff remains scheduled for March 31.

Delaying the playoff actually does make a lot of sense.  Yes, it screws up the timing tremendously and isn't ideal for Belgium, Egypt and New Zealand (the other teams in Iran's group) or France, Senegal and Norway (the other teams in the Iraq/Suriname/Bolivia group), but there are also plenty of potential positives.  Most notably, they should have a clearer picture of what's happening with Iran then, which would allow them to adjust how to handle their (assumed) withdrawal and how to replace them.

If they delay the playoff and Iran does withdraw, that's actually the most straightforward scenario.  Iraq could then move into Iran's place in Group G and the United Arab Emirates (the team Iraq beat to secure that Asian spot in the qualifier) would replace Iraq in the qualifier against Suriname/Bolivia.  That would give both Iraq and UAE adequate time to prepare while also removing the uncertainty about who'll replace Iran.

Meanwhile, if the playoff is held as scheduled and Iraq wins, then Iran withdraws after that date, what do you do then?  It would have to be another Asian team and UAE is next in line, so you'd figure they'd be the most likely replacement.  But that would raise questions of fairness with a team that had multiple chances to qualify being handed a spot at the last minute.  What would be the other option, though?  Having Iraq replace Iran and the Bolivia-Suriname winner advance regardless?  How is that fair to whoever loses in the other intercontinental playoff?

There's precedent for both options.  Denmark was added to Euro 92 as a replacement for Yugoslavia 10 days before the tournament started and ended up winning the whole thing.  Likewise, last year at the Club World Cup, Leon was removed from the tournament by FIFA after qualifying, so there was a play-in game between LA FC and Club America for the final spot on May 31 before the main tournament started on June 14.  This year's Champions League final is on May 30 and the World Cup starts on June 11, so it would be tight, but it's still doable.

June 11 is obviously three months away.  A lot can change between now and then.  But it doesn't just seem unlikely that Iran will play in the World Cup, it seems impossible.  It's not a question of if they'll withdraw, but when.  And how FIFA will replace them once that happens.