2026 Baseball Preview (NL West)

We've been so spoiled by the World Baseball Classic that it's almost hard to believe that the regular season is only about a week away.  Which means it's time for the annual six-part MLB season preview.  And, since we have that Yankees-Giants standalone season opener, it makes sense to start with those two divisions.  It's a San Francisco home game, so I'll start there.

The NL West, of course, has been the Dodgers' domain for the better part of a decade.  They're the two-time defending World Series champions, and they're the favorite to make it three straight.  Even though the Dodgers are the overwhelming favorites, though, to think the outcome in October is predetermined couldn't be further from the truth.  After all, just think about how close they came to not winning either World Series!  They were down 2-1 in the 2024 Division Series against the Padres, and we all saw how close the Blue Jays came to beating them in Game 7.  So, don't think anything's guaranteed.

Still, the rest of the NL West knows that they're likely fighting for second place.  Which is enough.  Because being good enough to get into the playoffs and taking your chances once you get there is an entirely reasonable goal.  And there are two NL West teams in particular who'll be in that fight for the wild cards.  Which may even be closer and more exciting than the division race.

Both the Giants and Padres should be in the wild card mix.  San Diego has made the playoffs in each of the last two years and four times in the last six seasons.  San Francisco is a really dangerous team that should be much improved and will definitely be a factor in the playoff race.  The Diamondbacks are only three years removed from a World Series appearance and are on the fringes of contention, but are stuck in a stacked division.  Colorado, meanwhile, is still one of the worst teams in baseball.

1. Los Angeles Dodgers: Yes, we're likely headed to a lockout after this season.  Yes, the Dodgers will be blamed for it (although they're far from the only reason).  And the rich continued to get richer as they once again signed one of the premier free agents on the market in Kyle Tucker, who's actually a perfect fit in that lineup.  If there's any negative to the Tucker signing, it's that they added another lefty bat when they're already lefty-heavy, but that's a minor quibble.

Whatever weakness this team has is in the pitching staff.  Not that their pitching staff is bad.  They also signed Edwin Diaz, giving them a true closer for the first time since Kenley Jansen left.  The rest of the bullpen will be mix-and-match depending on who's healthy.  The same could be said about their rotation, which only includes about nine starters now that Clayton Kershaw is retired.  Still, Roki Sasaki moves back into the rotation after his star turn as a reliever during the playoffs last season.  A rotation that's already stacked, assuming they stay healthy.  Even if they don't, the Dodgers have plenty of backup options available waiting to step in.
Projected Lineup: Shohei Ohtani-DH, Mookie Betts-SS, Freddie Freeman-1B, Will Smith-C, Kyle Tucker-LF, Teoscar Hernandez-RF, Max Muncy-3B, Andy Pages-CF, Tommy Edman-2B
Projected Rotation: Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Shohei Ohtani, Tyler Glasnow, Blake Snell, Roki Sasaki, Emmet Sheehan
Closer: Edwin Diaz
Projected Record: 100-62

2. San Francisco Giants: For some reason, I think the Giants are gonna be really good this year.  Good enough to challenge the Dodgers for the division title?  Probably not.  But I wouldn't be surprised if they end up hosting the 4 vs. 5 Wild Card Series.  Buster Posey has slowly been putting together a real contender.  And, the unconventional managing hire of Tony Vitiello, formerly of the University of Tennessee was either a stroke of brilliance or the thing that will hold the team back.

Some of the moves regarding the roster could end up being questionable, too.  Moving Luis Arraez back to second base.  A full year of the Rafael Devers-as-a-first-baseman experiment.  If they work, though?  Look out!  And the front of San Francisco's rotation can hold its own against anybody.  The bullpen is definitely a weakness, but it's also the area they'll address at the deadline should they be in the mix.  I just have a feeling about the Giants this season.  I may be way off.  But I have a feeling they're gonna have a really good year.
Projected Lineup: Luis Arraez-2B, Jung Hoo Lee-RF, Rafael Devers-1B, Matt Chapman-3B, Heliot Ramos-LF, Willy Adames-SS, Harrison Bader-CF, Bryce Eldridge-DH, Patrick Bailey-C
Projected Rotation: Logan Webb, Robbie Ray, Carson Whisenhunt, Adrian Houser, Tyler Mahle
Closer: Ryan Walker
Projected Record: 92-70

3. San Diego Padres: It has to be an incredibly frustrating time to be a Padres fan.  The team has been consistently good for half a decade, but still hasn't gotten over the hump and made the World Series.  They know the window is closing, too.  It isn't closed yet, but they're running out of time and that pesky team two and a half hours north isn't going anywhere.  If there's any team that isn't scared of the Dodgers, though, it's the Padres.  They're one of the few teams with a lineup that can go toe-to-toe against them.

Even without Luis Arraez, San Diego's lineup is loaded.  They're, of course, led by a pair of superstars in Manny Machado and Fernando Tatis Jr., but don't sleep on Jackson Merrill or Jake Cronenworth.  And I love the addition of Nick Castellanos at DH!  They'll probably need to rely on outscoring teams, however, since their rotation is what's taken the biggest hit in free agency.  They have the All-World closer in Mason Miller, but will they be able to get the ball to him enough?  I'm just not sure San Diego is one of the six best teams in the National League anymore, so they'll likely be watching in October.
Projected Lineup: Fernando Tatis Jr.-RF, Jake Cronenworth-2B, Manny Machado-3B, Xander Bogaerts-SS, Nick Castellanos-DH, Jackson Merrill-CF, Gavin Sheets-1B, Freddy Fermin-C, Ramon Laureano-LF
Projected Rotation: Nick Pivetta, Joe Musgrove, Michael King, Randy Vasquez, German Marquez
Closer: Mason Miller
Projected Record: 84-78

4. Arizona Diamondbacks: Arizona is the fourth-best team in this division.  Which says more about the quality of the NL West than the Diamondbacks.  Because if they played in the NL Central, we'd be talking about them as potential division champions.  As it is, in the NL West, they'll be battling for a wild card at best and will be fighting to finish .500 at worst.  It's really a pretty thin line, too.  If it all clicks, though, it shouldn't come as a surprise to anyone if this team ends up in the playoffs.

Their lineup doesn't have many holes.  And they added a pair of veterans in Nolan Arenado and Carlos Santana.  Their rotation also, surprisingly, remains mostly intact.  Losing ace Corbin Burnes will hurt, but Merrill Kelly and Zac Gallen are plenty capable of picking up the slack.  Their bullpen is where I worry, though.  Most of the Diamondbacks' top relievers are injured, so I don't know where they'll go at the end of games.  And that bullpen could be their Achilles' heel.
Projected Lineup: Corbin Carroll-RF, Carlos Santana-1B, Ketel Marte-2B, Nolan Arenado-3B, Geraldo Perdomo-SS, Lourdes Gurriel Jr.-LF, Jordan Lawlar-DH, Alek Thomas-CF, Gabriel Moreno-C
Projected Rotation: Merrill Kelly, Zac Gallen, Ryne Nelson, Eduardo Rodriguez, Brandon Pfaadt
Closer: Ryan Thompson
Projected Record: 79-83

5. Colorado Rockies: Forgive the pun, but last season was rock bottom in Colorado.  No one expected the Rockies to be good, but I don't think anybody thought they would be that bad!  So, the good news is this season can't be much worse.  At least it probably can't.  They can at least take solace in the fact that they might not be the worst team in baseball, too.  They may not even be the worst team in the National League.

Still, expect 100 losses again.  There simply isn't enough talent to compete.  Especially in the NL West.  They have some individual stars (Hunter Goodman, Ezequiel Tovar) just not nearly enough of them.  And their rotation behind ace Kyle Freeland is three veterans who all pitched for different countries in the WBC.  That's why I think there's room for improvement in Colorado this season.  The Rockies still aren't good, but they are better.
Projected Lineup: Tyler Freeman-RF, Ezequiel Tovar-SS, Hunter Goodman-C, Mickey Moniak-DH, Willi Castro-3B, Edouard Julien-1B, Jordan Beck-LF, Brenton Doyle-CF, Ryan Ritter-2B
Projected Rotation: Kyle Freeland, Michael Lorenzen, Tomoyuki Sugano, Jose Quintana, Ryan Feltner
Closer: Seth Halvorsen
Projected Record: 59-103