Joe Men's Bracket, 2026

All of the bubble teams will be watching the Atlantic 10 Championship Game with great interest.  Dayton upset Saint Louis in the semifinals and is playing VCU in the final.  If Dayton wins, they steal a bid.  Although, it might be VCU's bid they steal, so the A-10 Championship Game could very well be an NCAA Tournament play-in.  Still, you'd have to think teams like Miami (OH), SMU and all those SEC teams will be rooting pretty hard for VCU just in case.

Last year, basically the entire SEC made it.  They set a record with 14 teams, including two 1-seeds, who ended up meeting each other in the Final Four, with Florida winning the championship.  Florida tried to play itself out of a 1-seed this year, but so did UConn.  That blowout loss to St. John's in the Big East Championship Game I think sealed it.  Despite its loss to Vanderbilt, Florida will be the fourth No. 1 seed.

The other three No. 1 seeds are incredibly easy calls.  Duke will be No. 1 overall.  Arizona and Michigan will be No. 2 and 3 overall.  The order doesn't really matter since they'd be matched up against each other in the Final Four anyway.  The only difference is who wears their home jerseys should they both get there.  Since Arizona beat a very good Houston team for the Big 12 title, they get the nod as the higher overall seed.

Three of the 2-seeds are easy, as well.  Houston and UConn both had the chance to be No. 1's.  They didn't quite get there, so that keeps them on the 2-line.  Iowa State wasn't moving off the 2-line.  As for the fourth 2-seed, my choice might surprise you a bit.  I think if Vanderbilt wins the SEC Championship Game, they get it.  There has to be some sort of reward for winning the conference tournament.  Likewise, I think winning the Big East moves St. John's from a 4-seed to a 3-seed.

As for one of the other 3-seeds, Nebraska is the only Power 4 school that has never won an NCAA Tournament game.  That could very well change this year.  In fact, I'd be surprised if it doesn't.  It's not even a stretch to say the Huskers could reach the Sweet 16.  They're one of many Big Ten teams that could.  Not only will the Big Ten place the most teams in the field, they're all quality teams.  Six of them should get a 5-seed or higher.

Now, about that pesky bubble.  The conversation has been around whether Miami (OH) deserves an at-large bid after falling in the quarterfinals of the MAC Tournament.  I wouldn't be surprised if they end up in the First Four simply because of how the bubble is shaking out.  I do think they're in the Tournament, though.  As I said the other day, it sets a terrible precedent and sends a terrible message if they aren't.  I've actually got them in the last at-large spot before the First Four, in fact.

Whether Miami (OH) gets in as they should or not, this is looking to be a pretty good year for mid-majors.  Saint Louis is a lock, and the West Coast Conference should get both Saint Mary's and Santa Clara.  Miami (OH) would make four at-large bids from conferences outside the Power 4 and Big East (which only gets at-large bids for UConn and Villanova).  That's still not a lot compared to years past.  But I don't think we're ever going back to that, so four is pretty good.

Part of the reason for that is the SEC won't be getting an absurd number of teams this year.  I've "only" got them with 10, and that includes Missouri and Texas playing in the First Four.  That's only one more than number of teams I have from the Big Ten.  The ACC and Big 12, meanwhile, have eight each.  Then, counting up all the other at-large bids, it's the Big East and West Coast Conference with three, then the Atlantic 10 and MAC with two apiece.

That conference breakdown and where certain teams slot actually created a whole bunch of difficulty filling out the bracket.  As a result, I ended up flipping Akron from a 12-seed to an 11 and pushing one of the First Four games into that 12-seed slot.  It was the only way to keep Missouri, Texas and their opponents away from conference teams.  (I know they're allowed to have conference teams potentially play each other on the first weekend now, but I still don't like it and try to avoid it on my bracket if possible.)

EAST (Washington)
Greenville: 1-Duke (1) vs. 16-UMBC, 8-TCU vs. 9-Iowa
Tampa: 5-Wisconsin vs. 12-High Point, 4-Alabama vs. 13-Hofstra
Buffalo: 6-Tennessee vs. 11-South Florida, 3-Michigan State vs. 14-Wright State
St. Louis: 7-Kentucky vs. 10-NC State, 2-Iowa State vs. 15-Queens

SOUTH (Houston)
Tampa: 1-Florida (4) vs. 16-Lehigh/Prairie View, 8-Ohio State vs. 9-Utah State
San Diego: 5-Texas Tech vs. 12-Missouri/SMU, 4-Illinois vs. 13-Northern Iowa
Greenville: 6-BYU vs. 11-VCU, 3-Virginia vs. 14-Tennessee State
Philadelphia: 7-Saint Mary's vs. 10-Texas A&M, 2-Connecticut vs. 15-Siena

WEST (San Jose)
San Diego: 1-Arizona (2) vs. 16-Idaho, 8-Saint Louis vs. 9-Villanova
Portland: 5-Purdue vs. 12-McNeese State, 4-Gonzaga vs. 13-North Dakota State
Oklahoma City: 6-Louisville vs. 11-Central Florida/Texas, 3-Nebraska vs. 14-Hawai'i
St. Louis: 7-Miami vs. 10-Miami (OH), 2-Vanderbilt vs. 15-Furman

MIDWEST (Chicago)
Buffalo: 1-Michigan (3) vs. 16-Long Island/Howard, 8-Clemson vs. 9-Georgia
Portland: 5-Arkansas vs. 12-Yale, 4-Kansas vs. 13-Utah Valley
Philadelphia: 6-North Carolina vs. 11-Akron, 3-St. John's vs. 14-Troy
Oklahoma City: 7-UCLA vs. 10-Santa Clara, 2-Houston vs. 15-Kennesaw State 

In the Final Four, it'll be East vs. South and West vs. Midwest.  Will we see a repeat and have all four No. 1 seeds make it to Indianapolis?  Don't count on it.  It would be just the third time ever.  And I have a feeling this year's NCAA Tournament will be wide open.  After all, they call it March Madness for a reason.