Six Frontrunners, No Favorites

It's been a few days since one of the wildest Trade Deadlines on memory.  I saw a stat that 29 of the 30 teams made at least one trade at the deadline.  Only the Rockies didn't make a single transaction.  I point that out not only because it's highly unusual, but because virtually every good team got better because of its deadline deals and, as a result, it's hard to declare anybody a definitive World Series "favorite."

Just because there aren't any "favorites" doesn't mean there aren't any frontrunners.  In fact, I think there are six teams that stand out above the rest.  At least five of them, obviously, won't win the World Series.  At least four of them won't even make it.  I can see each of the six winning...and there are also plenty of reasons why each of them won't.

Yankees
Why They Will: To put it simply, they've been the best team in baseball pretty much all season.  Sure, there have been a few hiccups here and there, but, for the most part, they've been the best team.  And this is despite having Joey Gallo on the roster for four months!  Now Gallo's gone, and they've improved elsewhere, too.  Frankie Montas is a legit No. 3, and you knew they'd address the bullpen.  If they can stay healthy, there's no reason to think it won't continue into October.

Why They Won't: The Astros.  Houston is the one team in the American League that isn't afraid of the Yankees, and they certainly appear to be on a collision course.  Should they meet in the ALCS, the Yankees will need to be the better team, which is something they weren't their seven regular season meetings with Houston.

Astros
Why They Will: There were two glaring issues with the Astros--catcher and first base.  They addressed both of them at the deadline with Christian Vazquez and Trey Mancini.  They also improved their bullpen by adding Will Smith (who actually gives them a lefty to, presumably, face Anthony Rizzo seven times in a seven-game series).  Plus, they've got the playoff experience and know how to win in October.  (Also, their draw as the 2-seed should give them an easier Division Series than the Yankees will have.)

Why They Won't: For a team that been to five straight ALCS, it's hard to envision them not getting there again.  But it is theoretically possible, especially if they have to deal with an injury or two.  They're not as deep as they used to be, so having to play somebody other than their regular starters could make them vulnerable.

Dodgers
Why They Will: While they're not as clear a favorite as the Yankees and Astros are in the AL, the Dodgers are still the class of the National League.  And they're only gonna get better as some of their regulars come back from injury.  Plus, the fact that they have so many stars takes the burden off everyone.  They can outscore you or they can get seven shutout innings from the starter and win 2-1.  And that ability to win different ways is crucial in October.

Why They Won't: Will they have enough pitching?  So far, they've gotten lucky on the injury front, especially on the mound.  However, Kershaw is currently on the IL with his annual injury, and who knows when he'll be back?  They'll need their rotation at full strength.  Because that's the only way they'll match up with the Mets.

Mets
Why They Will: Pitching.  Plain and simple.  Assuming they're both healthy, the Mets can send either Jacob deGrom or Max Scherzer out there four times in a seven-game series (and Taijuan Walker in two of the other three).  And that doesn't even take their lineup into account!  When the team that has the best pitching also has a ridiculously strong lineup, that's a pretty good combination.  And it makes it really difficult to envision them losing four out of seven to the same team.

Why They Won't: Honestly, there aren't many flaws with this Mets team.  But a bad matchup could be their undoing.  And by a "bad matchup," I mean a team that has the pitching to handle their lineup.  They also need both deGrom and Scherzer to be healthy and do their thing.  If I were a Mets fan, I'd also be somewhat concerned about the bullpen.

Braves
Why They Will: If it's possible, the Braves might be better this year than last season's championship team.  Don't forget, Ronald Acuna missed the postseason last year.  They're formidable, they're dangerous, and they know how to win in October (don't forget, they had a 3-1 lead in the 2020 NLCS before the Dodgers won three straight).  They have the experience and confidence that it won't matter who they play.

Why They Won't: Last year, everything they did worked.  The chances of that happening again aren't high.  You'd have to think that winning the division is key, too, especially with the new playoff format.  If they win the NL East, they'll have a very favorable path to the NLCS.  If they don't, they'll have to face the Padres and the No. 1 seed to get there.  Even with Jake Odorizzi, I'm not sure they have enough pitching for that.

Padres
Why They Will: Everything move San Diego made was with one clear objective in mind.  We're going for it.  And we're going for it now.  I don't totally want to say it's World Series or bust, but you don't go out and get Juan Soto if you don't think your team is good enough to win this year.  That lineup is ridiculous, and it'll become even more formidable once Tatis comes back.  The pitching isn't nearly as good as the lineup, but it's not exactly bad, and now they've got Hader at the end, too.  The Padres are a team nobody will want to face in October.

Why They Won't: They're too far behind in the division.  Even with their new additions, it's unlikely they'll catch the Dodgers.  Which means they'll have to play in a best-of-three Wild Card Series (likely against the Braves), then, if they win that, face the No. 1 seed in the Division Series.  I'm not sure the Padres are good enough to win both of those rounds, then the Mets or Dodgers in the NLCS.

So, as you can see, the top six teams are all plenty capable of winning the World Series.  They're also all plenty capable of losing the Division Series.  Which is why I think getting one of those top two seeds so you can get a few days off and set your pitching will be huge (even if the 1-seed isn't really as much of an advantage, since the wild card teams look stronger than the Central winners).

I haven't even mentioned the other six playoff teams, either.  While they won't be considered one of the "favorites" come October, they'll be in the field.  And just being in the field is ultimately what matters.  Especially since the teams no one's talking about often prove to be the most dangerous ones.