New-S Open

This year's US Open will have a very different feel.  The first few days will be more of a goodbye than anything else.  Serena Williams has announced she'll be retiring after the tournament, and the fairytale ending of her winning her record-tying 24th Grand Slam before riding off into the sunset is highly unlikely.  But, until she loses, every one of Serena's matches will potentially be her last, so she'll be the story.  As she should be.

Fortunately, Novak Djokovic will NOT be the story.  As an unvaccinated foreigner, he's not allowed to enter the U.S.  So, instead of turning a second hardcourt Grand Slam into a circus, Djokovic did the opposite of what he did in Australia.  He actually did the responsible thing, accepted the fact that he can't play in the tournament, and withdrew before the draw was made.

But still, not having Djokovic in the field opens up the men's draw immensely.  He's made eight of the last 12 US Open finals and, even though his ranking has slipped because he received zero points at two of the first three Grand Slams (and will slip more because he'll receive zero here), he still would've been considered one of the favorites.  If not THE favorite.  

Last year, of course, Djokovic was going for the calendar-year Grand Slam when he lost in the final to Daniil Medvedev.  Medvedev followed up that US Open title by making the final in Australia and taking over Djokovic's No. 1 ranking.  And he, of course, wasn't allowed to play at Wimbledon (prompting the zero-points punishment for the tournament), so I'm sure that would make defending his title that much sweeter.

I'm not saying I'm rooting for it to happen, but it would create a very interesting/unusual situation if he were to win.  And, you know what?  He's probably the favorite.  Outside of Djokovic, Medvedev is probably the best hardcourt player in the world.  So that situation could very realistically occur.

In fact, Medvedev isn't the only Russian with the chance to make the US Open awkward.  Because Andrey Rublev, a two-time US Open quarterfinalist, has a pretty good shot, too.  Rublev has a potential quarterfinal matchup with Nadal, but should he get through that, I can actually see them playing each other in an all-Russian final.  An all-Russian final that I've got Rublev winning.

If someone other than Medvedev or Nadal wins, it'll be the fifth straight year with a different US Open men's champion.  For all Djokovic's dominance at the Australian Open and Wimbledon and Nadal's at Roland Garros, it's crazy how the US Open has really become such a toss-up.  In fact, going back to Andy Murray's win in 2012, there have been seven different men's champions in the last 10 US Opens.  And five other guys have made the final and lost, so that's 12 different finalists in the last 10 years.

Although, let's be honest, the US Open is just as unpredictable on the women's side.  Emma Raducanu was a qualifier playing in her first US Open main draw last year.  She didn't lose a set en route to the title!  In 2019, Bianca Andreescu was playing in her first US Open...and won the tournament!  We've seen other unlikely names like Naomi Osaka (the first time), Sloane Stephens and Flavia Pennetta win recent US Opens.  And, just like the men, somebody new wins seemingly every year.  Other than Osaka's second title in 2020, there's been a different champion every year since 2015, and 12 different finalists in those seven years.

So who are this year's candidates to make that seven champions and 14 finalists since 2015?  Well, we've gotta start with world No. 1 Iga Swiatek.  She had her winning streak snapped at Wimbledon, but definitely has the all-court game to be successful on hardcourts.  Swiatek made the fourth round last year and the semis in Australia, so it's not a stretch at all to say she's a contender for the title.

Coco Gauff also has a chance to really make some noise.  The American women, by and large, always play well at the US Open, but that hasn't really translated to Coco yet.  She was all the buzz in her 2019 debut, where she lost to Naomi Osaka in the first round.  Then in 2020, she lost in the first round before losing to Sloane Stephens in the second round last year.  This year, though, she enters the US Open as the American No. 1 and a Grand Slam finalist.  Will that change her fortunes?

You've also got No. 3 Ons Jabeur, who made history by reaching the final at Wimbledon, and No. 5 Maria Sakkari, a semifinalist last year.  Then there are the perpetual US Open performers.  Players like Vika Azarenka and Naomi Osaka.  I don't think either will win the title, but they'll make life difficult for every woman they play (Azarenka and Osaka are both in the same section of the draw...with Raducanu).

None of them are my pick, though.  I'm going with world No. 2 Anett Kontaveit.  She's never been past the third round at Flushing Meadows and, in fact, has only made one Grand Slam quarterfinal in her career (the 2020 Australian Open), but she's ranked No. 2 in the world for a reason and I just have a feeling about her.  And I really like her draw.

Could I be totally off about Kontaveit?  Absolutely!  But then again, no one saw Raducanu coming last year, and nobody thought Elena Rybakina would win Wimbledon this year, either.  It really just goes to show the unpredictable state of women's tennis right now.  It feels like you could pick a name out of a hat and have just as much of a chance of picking the winner as tennis analysts whose job it is to make predictions.

Which is really another testament to Serena Williams.  The US Open is where she had her breakout in 1999.  The US Open is where she's won six titles (including three in a row from 2012-14) and made 10 finals.  When she was dominating women's tennis, it was clear who was going to win.  But, in her final US Open, we have no idea who will!  It might even be Serena herself, writing that Hollywood ending after all!