Istanbul Wants 2036

This new Olympic bid process, introduced after the Paris-LA double-awarding, where cities don't compete against each other but instead enter into a "dialogue phase" in which the IOC just picks its favorite, has actually made the process even longer.  LA was awarded the 2028 Games in 2017, a full 11 years prior to the Olympics.  Brisbane was then awarded the 2032 Games right before last year's Tokyo Olympics...again 11 years out!

Under the old bid process, the host city was announced seven years prior to the Olympics in question, so the entire process, from thinking about a bid to the end of the Olympics took about a decade.  That's obviously no longer the case.  In fact, cities are already talking about the 2036 Games, which are 14 years from now!

I bring that up because one of the cities that's been mentioned for 2036 is perpetual Olympic bidder Istanbul.  Istanbul bid for every Olympics from 2000-12, took one cycle off, then finished second to Tokyo in the bidding for 2020.  They've promised that this will be their "best bid yet," too.

The IOC is more concerned about the 2030 Winter Olympics right now, so 2036 is obviously not a priority at the moment.  It also seems likely that other bidders will emerge between now and when those Games are actually awarded, whenever that may be (although, it wouldn't shock me if it's either right before or right after the Paris Games).  But, judging by the public comments and the city's bid history, an Istanbul 2036 Olympic bid is not just likely, it's a near certainty.

After two consecutive non-European Olympics, I'd imagine the IOC will want to return to Europe in 2036, which is good news for a city like Budapest (which is an Olympic-host-in-waiting).  Turkey is also a part of Europe, though, and Istanbul gives the IOC a unique opportunity that they'd be foolish not to take advantage of.

There's never been an Olympics in the Arab world.  That isn't something that's gone unnoticed, either.  Doha hasn't been shy about its Olympic-hosting ambitions, and I wouldn't be surprised to see a city like Dubai (which would be a much more appropriate host) or Riyadh enter the fray at some point, as well.

An Olympics in the Middle East comes with a number of concerns for the IOC (and participating countries), though.  The human rights and Israel situations aside, the biggest issue is the heat.  You can't hold the Olympics in the Middle East in their traditional late July/August timeframe.  But moving them to another time of the year is easier said than done.  Just look at the disruption this year's World Cup will cause!  Now make that an Olympics instead.  Logistically, it doesn't work.

When Doha hosted the 2019 World Track & Field Championships, they were moved to late September, and, even then, they started events at midnight and needed an air-conditioned stadium.  The schedule of World Swimming Championships has gotten all screwed up because of the pandemic, but the upcoming edition Doha will be hosting is in January 2024.  That timing's obviously not ideal, but, fortunately, it's just one sport and the international federation was willing to make that adjustment.

Making similar adjustments for an Olympics wouldn't work for several reasons, though.  So, they'd be left with either rescheduling the Olympics for a time that's not ideal or holding them in unbearable heat, which wouldn't be comfortable for anybody.

All of those things make holding an Olympics in an Arab country difficult.  That's where Istanbul comes in.  Turkey is an Arab country.  But it's also located in an area where they can host the Olympics at their normal time.  The average summer high in Istanbul is 85, and the average low is 71.  That's actually pretty perfect.

Istanbul's location also makes it one of the most unique cities in the world.  It's literally located on two different continents!  There's a road that goes through the city that has a sign like you'd see when crossing from one state into another, only it's Europe and Asia on the sign!  For all intents and purposes, Turkey considers itself part of Southern Europe.  Culturally, though, it's an Arab country.  Which, frankly, makes Istanbul a perfect Olympic host!

We're very close to the point where the IOC can't ignore the Arab world and Africa any longer.  Especially if a European country is selected for 2036.  Istanbul would be the best of both worlds, though.  Literally!  They'd be going back to Europe, but they'd also be going to the Arab world for the first time.

It's not like Istanbul would be a token host, either.  They're well-prepared to host an Olympics.  That's why they're claiming, after all those failed bids, that this would be the "best one yet."  They're plenty capable, and, with each successive bid, they've learned more about the process and improved upon the last one.  So, there's no reason to think that Istanbul wouldn't be ready to put on a first-rate Olympics in 2036.

Yes, I understand that 2036 is a long way away.  The IOC hasn't even officially opened the process for potential 2036 hosts.  Once they do, though, you know Istanbul will be in the discussion.  And, frankly, they could do a lot worse.  So, even though it's waaaaayyyyy early, I'm installing Istanbul as the favorite to host the 2036 Olympics.  The end of a long quest, with the ultimate goal finally realized.