I came thisclose to nailing my Stanley Cup Final pick! Going with Colorado in the West was easy, but I should've stuck with my gut and gone with Tampa Bay in the East, which I was definitely thinking about. (I even think I said the winner of the Lightning-Leafs series could very well end up in the Final.) I should've known better, though. Because the Lightning know how to win in the playoffs.
What Tampa Bay has done is even more impressive when you consider that they've reached the Final in three completely different seasons. In 2020, the playoffs were in a bubble four months after the season was shut down. In 2021, they played an abbreviated season against only the other teams in their realigned division. Now, finally, in 2022, they'll play for the Cup following a normal, 82-game regular season and standard playoffs.
Their series against the Rangers was incredibly impressive, too. They were rusty in Game 1. That was obvious. But, as soon as the Rangers blew that 2-0 lead in Game 3, you knew it was Tampa's series to lose. They dominated the final three games in every aspect. Much in the same way Colorado has dominated the entire postseason.
The Avalanche were far-and-away the best team in the West all season, so it wasn't really a surprise that they made quick work of their playoff opponents. I thought Edmonton was the only team that might have a shot at being competitive with them, and even the Oilers were overmatched. Colorado was playing its backup goalie, too, and still didn't miss a beat.
For me, the most impressive part of the Avalanche's playoff run is the fact that they're undefeated on the road so far in the postseason. Both of their losses to St. Louis came at home. They actually have a better record on the road, 7-0, compared to 5-2 in Denver. Of course, they don't even need to win a road game to lift the Cup.
These teams are remarkably similar. They're both deep and incredibly talented, but they each only have one or two "superstars" surrounded by a bunch of really good pieces. And that depth has been on full display for both the Lightning and Avalanche. You never know who it's gonna be who comes through with the big goal, like when Mikhail Sergachev had a goal and an assist in Game 5 of the East Final.
Although, the stars are stars for a reason, and I'm sure they'll leave their mark on the series. With all due respect to Adam Fox, Victor Hedman and Cale Makar are the two best defensemen in hockey. And there's Colorado's 1-2 punch of Nathan MacKinnon and Gabriel Landeskog. While Tampa has so many scoring threats it's easy to lose track. They seem to have figured out the lineup without Brayden Point that works. They felt that loss early in the Rangers series, but by the end, you didn't even know he was gone.
Then there's the goalies, who could be the biggest factors in this series. Andriy Vasilevskiy has been the best goalie on the planet over the past few years. Will Darcy Kuemper be ready to go for Colorado? Although, as we saw against Edmonton, Pavel Francouz is just as capable between the pipes. If he has to play, will the magic wear off?
So, how does the series play out? I think the first two games will be very important. If the Lightning can go into Denver and get a split, they'll be in great shape to win the Cup once again. The Avalanche don't have to win them both since they've been so good on the road, but winning both and doing so emphatically would send a message that this won't be like the East Final, where the Rangers won the first two before Tampa rolled off four straight.
That's a factor I'm curious about, too. The Lightning were heavy favorites against Dallas in 2020 and even heavier favorites against Montreal last year. This year, it's at best a toss-up. They haven't been in this position before. For the first time in their three appearances, they aren't the overwhelming Cup favorite. Will that make any difference at all?
Of course, if we've learned anything over the past three years is that the circumstances don't really matter to the Lightning. They can have home ice, they can start on the road, they can fall behind in the series. No matter what the situation, they end up winning anyway. It's not a coincidence they've won 11 straight playoff series.
Tampa Bay's run is reminiscent of the Islanders dynasty of the early 80s. They were the last team to play in three straight Stanley Cup Finals, actually making it to five in a row from 1980-84. After winning four consecutive Cups, they lost the fifth final to Edmonton, sparking the Oilers' dynasty.
It wouldn't be a surprise at all to see a similar result here. The Avalanche's last Cup win, in 2001, came against the defending champion Devils. Now it's a two-time defending champion that they're facing. But Colorado's certainly capable of playing the role of the 1984 Oilers to the Lightning's 1984 Islanders.
This will be Colorado's biggest test of the playoffs. It'll also be the biggest test Tampa Bay has faced in its three consecutive Stanley Cup Finals. We could be in store for a seven-game classic. At the end, though, I've gotta stick with what I've been saying all year. The Avalanche are the best team in hockey. They'll prove it by dethroning the champs.
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