Does the Math Add Up?

Loyola Chicago is joining the Atlantic 10 on July 1, which is something I completely missed during this latest wave of conference realignment.  The article I saw about it offered some interesting insight, though.  It made the argument that with Loyola Chicago joining, it actually stabilized the A-10, which might not be feeling as immediate a threat of somebody leaving for the Big East as some (including me) might think.

I've been saying for a long time that I think Saint Louis should and will go to the Big East eventually.  It seems like a no-brainer in so many ways.  And, if the Big East does eventually decide that they want 12, Saint Louis does seem to be the obvious choice.  But how inclined are they to actually go to 12?

When UConn rejoined the Big East, it seemed like adding the 12th team was inevitable.  It would make travel and scheduling easier, and they could easily split into East and West divisions.  But that may not actually be what the Big East wants.  Having UConn back is huge.  And they may be content with 11 for a while.

The argument against adding another team is really a pretty simple one.  Would a 12th team add enough value?  More specifically, is there a school that would warrant a big enough increase in the FOX contract that it would be worth it for everybody to split it 12 ways instead of 11?  The only school that seems to fit that bill is Gonzaga, which would be great for men's basketball, but wouldn't work logistically in any other sport.

There's also this to consider.  Even with UConn back in the fold, the Big East kept the double round-robin basketball schedule.  Everybody plays 20 games, which is probably the absolute max in terms of number of conference games you can get away with.  Adding somebody else, whether it's Gonzaga, Saint Louis or another school, would mean they'd either have to increase that to 22 or not play the full double round-robin (which is important to the current conference members).

Including the Big East Tournament, there are 120 scheduled conference games in men's basketball each season.  Bringing in somebody else and going from a 20-game conference schedule to an 18-game conference schedule wouldn't increase that inventory, though.  In fact, it would actually decrease to 119 (108 regular season, 11 tournament)!  And why would FOX want to shell out more money for one fewer game, that the teams would then have to split 12 ways instead of 11?

Contrast that to the Big 12's upcoming expansion.  The Big 12 will likely maintain a nine-game football schedule once Texas and Oklahoma leave and BYU, Cincinnati, Central Florida and Houston join.  In that case, however, the two additional teams will result in nine additional Big 12 football games.  I don't know what their basketball plans are, but the nine football games alone are enough to warrant a huge increase in TV rights!

Of course, the Big East is unique in that it's the only major basketball conference that doesn't have football.  Which is both a good thing and a bad thing.  It means decisions are driven by basketball, not football.  And that's certainly the case in this situation.

So, again, it really comes down to whether the Big East members think a 12th team would add value or if they'd be adding a 12th member just to have an even number.  And, while a smaller conference might want to have an even number because it's easier to deal with, that's not really an issue the Big East has.  The Big East is one of the elite conferences where the first consideration while making the schedule is TV and teams are already flying to multiple conference away games.

However, while that's not an issue in basketball, it would be in other sports.  That's why Gonzaga doesn't actually make sense.  It would be great for men's basketball, but that's not the only sport they need to consider.  Yes, men's basketball would be the primary consideration for any potential Big East expansion, but would it make sense for Gonzaga to do that to all of their other sports just to be in a more prestigious men's basketball conference (especially when they're already a marquee national program despite playing in the West Coast Conference)?

Saint Louis wouldn't have any of those same logistical issues as Gonzaga.  In fact, St. Louis is right smack in the middle of the Big East footprint!  So is Dayton!  Neither one is Gonzaga, though.  And are either the Billikens or Flyers enough to move the needle?  Unfortunately, probably not.

While bringing UConn back into the fold was a no-brainer, the decision whether to add a 12th team or not is much tougher.  It's been brought up to the Big East presidents and athletic directors, but they seem to agree that they're good with 11 right now.  That's not to say they won't consider expansion in the future.  Right now, though, 11 works.

Which is good news for the Atlantic 10.  I'm sure if the Big East expressed interest, Saint Louis and Dayton would listen.  I wouldn't be surprised if they've inquired with the conference, either.  But, as of now, it doesn't seem like any interest is mutual.  So, Dayton and Saint Louis will continue to be in the Atlantic 10.  Which, again, is good news for that conference.

Will that change in the future?  Who's to say?!  My gut still tells me that eventually, the answer will be "Yes."  That may not be as inevitable as I originally thought, though.  So, while I'd love to see Saint Louis (or Dayton) in the Big East, I no longer think it'll happen anytime soon.