A Weird Wimbledon

Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal are currently ranked third and fourth in the world.  As shocking as that is on its own, you'd never know it by looking at the seeds for Wimbledon, where Djokovic is his familiar No. 1 and Nadal is right behind him at No. 2.  That's because Daniil Medvedev, the actual No. 1, is banned from the tournament because he's Russian and No. 2 Alexander Zverev is out after suffering that gruesome ankle injury against Nadal at the French Open.

So, the men's seeds will be familiar.  Which is the only thing about this year's Wimbledon that won't feel completely strange.  Because the rest of it sure will be!  In fact, this will probably go down as the strangest Grand Slam tournament on record (and that includes the 2020 US and French Opens under quarantine with no fans!).

Of course, this is all because of the British government's decision to prohibit Russian and Belarusian players from participating in the tournament and the ATP/WTA's response by stripping Wimbledon of ranking points.  Which makes this essentially an exhibition event.  Albeit an exhibition event with a ton of prize money and the prestige of winning a Grand Slam title at stake.

Some players have chosen not to play because there won't be ranking points available, and I can't say I blame them.  Especially if they don't play well on grass.  I do feel bad for players like Matteo Berrettini, though.  Last year's finalist will lose 1200 ranking points regardless of how well he does this year.  Likewise, Djokovic's ranking will drop even further because his 2000 points for winning last year drop off and zero go on.  Although, on the flip side, losing early won't cost you rankings-wise!

It's also crazy to think that last year, Djokovic won the title to make it a three-way tie at 20.  He was three-quarters of his way to the calendar year Grand Slam and everyone took it as a given that he'd win the US Open to finish off the calendar-year Slam and become the all-time leader at 21.  Fast forward 12 months and Djokovic is still sitting on 20, while Nadal has surged ahead, winning both of this year's first two Grand Slams to take a 22-20-20 lead in the all-time tally.

Wimbledon 2021 is also the last time Roger Federer played a competitive tennis match.  He lost to Hubert Hurkacz in the quarterfinals, then had another knee surgery and has been out since.  Roger has maintained that he's coming back, but isn't ready yet.  You know that if he was, he'd be here.  Wimbledon has always been his baby and, even at 40, he still has a chance to win when healthy.  In fact, I'd argue that Wimbledon isn't just his best chance to add another Grand Slam title to his resume, it might be his only chance.  That chance, unfortunately, will have to wait until 2023, however.

In 2022, it'll be about Nole, Rafa and if anyone else can beat either one of them.  (It's been 20 years since somebody other than the three of them or Andy Murray has won the title.)  Frankly, I don't see it happening.  And the fact that they're the top two seeds, as well as the fact that Medvedev and Zverev won't be there, makes it even more likely that they're on a collision course for the final, where Djokovic could either win his fourth straight Wimbledon or Nadal could win his first since 2010.

If there's anyone else who has a chance, which, again, doesn't seem likely, it could be Cameron Norrie, the first Brit to be ranked in the Top 10 since Murray in his prime.  Norrie's obviously comfortable playing at Wimbledon.  I also like the Canadians, Felix Auger-Aliassime and Denis Shapovalov, as well as Marin Cilic and Matteo Berrettini, who've both been finalists at Wimbledon before. 

I don't like the chances for either French Open finalist Casper Ruud or Carlos Alcaraz, who dominated the clay court season.  They're both top-five seeds, but they both seem poised for an early upset (which, again, if you're a high who's gonna lose in the early rounds of a Slam, this is one to do it at).

Women's French Open champion Iga Swiatek, meanwhile, has absolutely solidified her No. 1 ranking.  She's on the longest winning streak of any player since Venus Williams in 2000, and there's no reason to believe she won't make a deep run at Wimbledon.  Can she win the title?  Absolutely!  Is it a guarantee like it was at Roland Garros?  No.  Would I consider her the favorite?  While I wouldn't go that far, she's certainly among the favorites.

During the French Open final, they made a really interesting point that had Coco Gauff won, she would've been the ninth different women's French Open champion in nine years.  It's the same thing at Wimbledon.  Five different women have won the last five tournaments since Serena's back-to-back titles in 2015-16.  (Although, it's worth noting that one of the Williams sisters was the losing finalist three straight times from 2017-19 before last year's Barty-Pliskova final.)

Speaking of Serena, she hasn't been seen since having to retire during her first-round match at Wimbledon last year.  As a result, her ranking is 1204 and she needed a wild card to get into the field.  Here's the crazy thing, though: She can win!  That doesn't mean she will.  I don't think it's realistic to say she'll win seven matches in a row after not having played in a year.  But the name "Serena Williams" in the draw, especially an unseeded Serena Williams, is enough to scare any one of the top players!

Serena's looming presence is the biggest factor in the women's draw.  While even she'd probably agree that it's unlikely she'll make a run, she'll make life difficult for every player she faces.  She'll get through the first round no problem, then it's the seeds--and the seeds in Serena's section of the draw include 2021 finalist Karolina Pliskova, French Open finalist Coco Gauff, and a pair of former Wimbledon champions--Simona Halep and Petra Kvitova.  So, life won't be easy for either Serena or any of those seeded players she might face.

The lack of Russians in the draw isn't as significant on the women's side.  In fact, the only two big names missing are Belarusians Aryna Sabalenka and Victoria Azarenka.  Although, I don't think either one would've been a contender for the title.  Sabalenka could've made a deep run, but it would've been a stretch to say she would've been among the favorites.  And Azarenka did win two Olympic medals on the Wimbledon grass, but that was 10 years ago!  (Sidebar: how were the London Olympics 10 years ago?!)

For some reason, I really like another Olympic medalist--Tokyo Olympic champion Belinda Bencic.  I say this despite the fact that she's never been past the fourth round at any Grand Slam other than the US Open.  I can't tell you why I like Bencic except for the fact I like her draw.  Although, the bottom half of the draw also includes Emma Raducanu, who made the fourth round last year in her Grand Slam debut before her breakout at the US Open.  And wouldn't it be something if a British woman wins for the first time since 1977?!  She's definitely got a shot!

Ultimately, though, I see a Bencic-Pliskova final, with Pliskova finally getting her first Grand Slam title.  And I doubt she'll care rankings points won't be included!  Likewise, Djokovic won't care as much about losing 2000 ranking points when he's hoisting the champion's trophy for the fourth consecutive time and the seventh time in his career.