Countdown to Qatar

You know it has to be something big for me to interrupt the baseball preview in the middle to blog about something else.  Well, the World Cup draw certainly qualifies.  So, yes, I'm taking a break from the baseball preview to take a look at the draw and make a few comments about that hot mess of a draw ceremony.

First things first, people were watching the draw ceremony to see the draw!  So get to the draw!  The speeches were fine.  So was the performance of the official song.  That video showcasing the stadiums made sense, too.  They needed something taped while they set the stage up with the pots.  But the rest of it.  What was that crap?

Seriously, was there any point to that stupid video with the trip to "mascot land" (a video that was also about three minutes too long)?  And why were there no translators?  They conducted the actual draw in English, yet they speak Arabic in the host country...and there was nobody translating back and forth!  It's possible that the people in the actual auditorium had earpieces, but how hard would it have been to have somebody doing translations for the TV audience?  I'm sure there are plenty of people out there who speak both English and Arabic!  (And Telemundo was dubbing the whole thing in Spanish, BTW.)

The draw ceremony started at 12:00, and they didn't get to the actual draw until 12:45!  And since the draw takes longer than 15 minutes, they ran long...all because of that ridiculous crap at the start! 

When it's North America's turn to do this for the next World Cup, they should take a page out of CBS' book.  When people tune in to CBS for the NCAA Basketball Selection Show, they know the reason why they're watching, so they get right to it.  They reveal the 1-seeds, then do the first region at like 6:05.  At the very least, cut some of that crap at the beginning out and start the actual draw on the half hour.  That way, you can take the 20-25 minutes to do the draw and still have the hour-long show end on time!

Anyway, rant over.  Now it's time to take a look at the actual draw, which can only be broken down so much right now.  Three teams, including the U.S, don't know their first opponent, so there's only so much preparation they can do for their opening game!  But, I'd much rather be in that position than the position of the eight teams still looking to clinch a berth.

Also, I've made it well known how stupid I think FIFA's rankings are.  They don't make any sense, yet they rely on them like they're gospel.  But at least we didn't end up with one of the lower-seeded teams from Pot 2 in Group A with Qatar!  The Netherlands, in fact, actually ended up with a really good draw.

Group A: Qatar, Ecuador, Senegal, Netherlands
As crazy as it sounds, Qatar might actually get out of this group.  The Dutch are obviously the favorite in what looks like the clear weakest group.  The Qatar-Senegal game will probably be the big one, since the winner of that will likely be the team that joins the Netherlands in the second round.  Senegal is the better team and would be my choice on a neutral ground no question, but I wouldn't be surprised if it's the hosts.

Group B: England, Iran, United States, Wales/Scotland/Ukraine
This, frankly, is perhaps the best possible draw for the Americans.  Sure, they're playing on the first day of the tournament, and I'm sure it would be nice to know their opponent.  But, of all the teams they could've drawn in Pot 1, England was one of the preferred options.  Iran will be a tough game, especially in the Middle East, and it's tough to assess the opening game without knowing the opponent, but I think the order of preference there is probably 1. Scotland, 2. Ukraine, 3. Wales.  Regardless, the U.S. has to like its chances of getting out of this group.  So does England.

Group C: Argentina, Saudi Arabia, Mexico, Poland
Poland's a dangerous team, one I did not want to see in the Americans' group.  Instead, they're in Mexico's group, and it could come down to them vs. El Tri for the second spot in the knockout phase.  I don't think Saudi Arabia will be as overmatched as they've been in previous World Cups, either.  Don't forget, Saudi Arabia borders Qatar, so not only will they be familiar with the surroundings, they'll have plenty of fans there.  This group is all about Messi and Co., though.  Argentina finally won a trophy at Copa America and is considered one of the favorites heading into what's likely Messi's final World Cup.  Now that they have a trophy, is the pressure off them?

Group D: France, Australia/UAE/Peru, Denmark, Tunisia
After that 0-0 snooze fest four years ago where they spent 90 minutes passing the ball back and forth, the soccer gods have given us France and Denmark in the same World Cup group again.  Australia and Peru were also in that group, and one of them will likely come out of that qualifier, so this will really feel like deja vu from Russia 2018.  Tunisia's the only team that's different.  In 2018, it was France and Denmark who came out of that group.  Don't expect things to change in 2022.

Group E: Spain, Costa Rica/New Zealand, Germany, Japan
On paper, this looks like your Group of Death.  But that's what happens when Germany is somehow ranked 12th in the world!  It does give us a Germany-Spain group play match, though, so you can't be overly upset about that!  Japan can.  They're probably the strongest Asian side and would've been well-positioned to make it to the knockout stage.  But not if they have to beat two European heavyweights to get there!  (Although, Germany did finish last in its group in 2018, so...)

Group F: Belgium, Canada, Morocco, Croatia
Canada was literally the last team drawn.  Which is kinda mean for a team that's playing in its first World Cup since 1986!  This competition is obviously stiffer than what they faced in CONCACAF, but I still think they have a decent chance of at least being competitive...even in a group that features the second- and third-place finishers at the last World Cup.  Belgium, the most overrated team in the world, once again gets a cupcake of a draw.  Their toughest opponent will, obviously, be Croatia.  I'm not counting Morocco out, either.  They're another Arab team, so they'll be comfortable.

Group G: Brazil, Serbia, Switzerland, Cameroon
While I already gave Group E the "Group of Death" label, this one ain't exactly easy!  It's also, like Group D, essentially a repeat of Russia 2018, where Brazil, Serbia and Switzerland were also all together.  Brazil is the No. 1 team in the world and the tournament favorites.  They'll have to prove it, though.  Because both Serbia and Switzerland will be tough outs.  Cameroon, unfortunately, is in over its head against those three.

Group H: Portugal, Ghana, Uruguay, South Korea
We came thisclose to a World Cup without Pretty Boy!  And yet, despite almost not even qualifying, Portugal ended up seeded!  Not only that, they ended up in a pretty favorable group.  Uruguay is the only team that can potentially threaten them.  Ghana was probably hoping to get the United States, while South Korea, while a regular presence in the World Cup, has only gotten out of the group stage twice (and one of those times they hosted).  It should be the same thing again.

Even though the draw is complete, the World Cup is still eight months away.  We won't even know the full field until June.  Taking an early glance at the draw, though, it's certainly a lot more favorable for some teams than others.  For the ones who got a good draw, November can't come soon enough.