A lot of things have changed in the NL East over the past couple days, huh?! I made my predictions for this division before the Mets lost both of their aces and actually contemplated making some adjustments as a result. But, in the end (and perhaps against my better judgment), I decided to stick with my initial picks for the NL East in 2022. And my initial pick was the New York Mets finishing in first place.
Prior to the deGrom injury, the Mets looked like the best team on paper in this division. They're actually one of the best teams on paper in all of baseball. In the National League, only the Dodgers are better. Losing deGrom obviously hurts, but I actually think the Mets are good enough to sustain his being out without completely collapsing. So, I decided to stick with my pick.
Which isn't to say the NL won't be competitive. The Braves only won 88 games in the regular season last year, but are the defending World Series champions. I'm actually shocked they lost Freddie Freeman, but they replaced him with Matt Olson, who's not much of a downgrade (and younger). So I fully expect Atlanta to be right there again.
And Joe Girardi's Phillies are eventually gonna figure it out and play to their potential. With the third wild card, it wouldn't surprise me to see them in the playoffs. It would surprise me to see the Nationals or Marlins there, however. Washington's gonna be in the mix again very soon, but not this year. As for the Marlins, um, yeah...
1. New York Mets: Was deGrom and Scherzer both getting hurt on consecutive days a week before the season starts the most Mets thing to possibly happen or what? That's the risk you run when you're so reliant on starting pitching, though. Scherzer, at least, shouldn't be out that long, but who knows when deGrom will be back? So, the best 1-2 punch in baseball will have to wait until at least June at the earliest, assuming deGrom doesn't have any setbacks, which is far from a guarantee.
Even with deGrom out, the Mets should at least be able to tread water for the first few months. They've completely rebuilt their roster, bringing in Starling Marte, Eduardo Escobar and Mark Canha, along with Scherzer and Chris Bassitt. What a difference an owner who's actually willing to spend money makes! (The new additional luxury tax threshold has even been nicknamed the "Cohen Tax.") They stand to be one the biggest beneficiaries of the universal DH, too. Now they don't need to put Dom Smith in left field just to get his bat in the lineup. (I've even heard rumors that the Padres are looking to unload Eric Hosmer's salary on the Mets, and Smith could end up getting shipped to San Diego if that trade happen, in which case Hosmer plays first and Alonso moves to DH.) Giving a team with this much power an extra bat means they may do a very un-Mets-like thing and actually score some runs.
Projected Lineup: Starling Marte-RF, Francisco Lindor-SS, Pete Alonso-1B, Mark Canha-LF, Eduardo Escobar-3B, Dominic Smith-DH, James McCann-C, Brandon Nimmo-CF, Jeff McNeil-2B
Projected Rotation: Max Scherzer, Chris Bassitt, Carlos Carrasco, Taijuan Walker, Tylor Megill
Closer: Edwin Diaz
Projected Record: 93-69
2. Atlanta Braves: The thought of Freddie Freeman playing for a team other than the Braves is, frankly, something that never entered my mind until it actually happened. But you also saw it coming when they made that trade with Oakland to get Matt Olson, who they then immediately signed to an eight-year extension. Even still, it'll be weird to see the Braves take the field on Opening Day with someone else at first base. Although, it is somewhat fitting that Freeman's last game as a Brave was a World Series-clinching win.
He isn't the only person gone from Atlanta's championship team. Jorge Soler and Joc Pederson are, too. But otherwise, they have most of their World Series team returning. And they'll get Ronald Acuna Jr., who missed the second half of last season with a gruesome broken leg, back in May, which will cover them at DH, which is actually Marcell Ozuna's best position. So, expect the Braves to be in the mix all season long.
Projected Lineup: Eddie Rosario-RF, Ozzie Albies-2B, Matt Olson-1B, Marcell Ozuna-DH, Austin Riley-3B, Adam Duvall-LF, Travis d'Arnaud-C, Dansby Swanson-SS, Guillermo Heredia-CF
Projected Rotation: Charlie Morton, Max Fried, Ian Anderson, Kyle Wright, Tucker Davidson
Closer: Kenley Jansen
Projected Record: 90-72
3. Philadelphia Phillies: Phillies fans have to be beyond frustrated by now. They're kinda like the Angels. So much talent, but no results to show for it. And this year, they've added even more. Kyle Schwarber will be their DH, and they were the winners of the Nick Castellanos sweepstakes. And don't forget, this is a lineup that already had Bryce Harper, Rhys Hoskins and J.T. Realmuto. I seriously don't understand why this team isn't better. Especially since they've got a serviceable rotation, too. Aaron Nola is a legit No. 1 starter, and the starters behind him are more than capable.
Their chances may really come down to how well the bullpen holds up. Girardi is clearly trying to take a page out of his Yankees playbook by just loading up on bullpen arms. They have Corey Knebel, Brad Hand and Jeurys Familia, who've all been closers, to handle the 7th, 8th and 9th innings. That actually makes things significantly easier on Nola, Wheeler and Co., who'll only have to go six on most nights. All the talent is there. Can the Phillies finally put it to use and make a playoff run?
Projected Lineup: Jean Segura-2B, J.T. Realmuto-C, Bryce Harper-RF, Rhys Hoskins-1B, Kyle Schwarber-DH, Nick Castellanos-LF, Didi Gregorius-SS, Alec Bohm-3B, Matt Vierling-CF
Projected Rotation: Aaron Nola, Zack Wheeler, Ranger Suarez, Zach Eflin, Kyle Gibson
Closer: Brad Hand
Projected Record: 84-78
4. Washington Nationals: As soon as the universal DH was announced and the market for a player like Nelson Cruz doubled, Washington immediately pounced. The Nationals became the first NL team to sign a full-time DH, who suddenly gives them more than just Juan Soto. He wasn't the only veteran they brought in, as they now have a wealth of experience around their young stars. Will it translate to success on the field? In another division, maybe. In the NL East? Probably not.
When they won the World Series in 2019, their pitching was a big reason why. But it's the pitching that might be the thing that holds them back in 2022. Stephen Strasburg and Joe Ross will both miss the start of the season. There's no timetable on Strasburg's return. And, they hoped to get Max Scherzer back after trading him to the Dodgers at last year's deadline, only to see him sign with the division rival Mets instead. So instead it's Patrick Corbin who'll get the start on Opening Day and be their workhorse at the start of the season. No offense to Patrick Corbin, but in this pitching-rich division, he's not a No. 1.
Projected Lineup: Alcides Escobar-SS, Juan Soto-RF, Nelson Cruz-DH, Josh Bell-1B, Maikel Franco-3B, Cesar Hernandez-2B, Victor Robles-CF, Keibert Ruiz-C, Lane Thomas-LF
Projected Rotation: Patrick Corbin, Josiah Gray, Erick Fedde, Anibal Sanchez, Josh Rogers
Closer: Tanner Rainey
Projected Record: 80-82
5. Miami Marlins: Derek Jeter wanted to go after Nick Castellanos. The rest of the Marlins brass did not. As a result, Jeter left his position with Miami. That tells you all you need to know about the state of the Marlins. They showed such promise not too long ago, making the playoffs and winning a postseason series during the abbreviated 2020 season. But it all came crashing down last year, and they don't seem to have any direction, making life extremely difficult for Don Mattingly.
However, just because they didn't want to go after Castellanos, that doesn't mean they were completely silent during the offseason. They signed Avisail Garcia and World Series MVP Jorge Soler to make up 2/3 of their outfield, and Gold Glove-winning catcher Jacob Stallings came over from the Pirates. Plus, they have Sandy Alcantara, one of the best young starters in the game. Alas, Alcantara can only pitch once every five days. The other four days may be a problem. They aren't nearly as bad as the Pirates or Diamondbacks, but it'd be a stretch to say the Marlins won't finish last in the NL East once again.
Projected Lineup: Jazz Chisholm-2B, Miguel Rojas-SS, Jesus Aguilar-DH, Avisail Garcia-RF, Jorge Soler-LF, Brian Anderson-3B, Jacob Stallings-C, Garrett Cooper-1B, Jesus Sanchez-CF
Projected Rotation: Sandy Alcantara, Pablo Lopez, Trevor Rogers, Elieser Hernandez, Jesus Luzardo
Closer: Anthony Bender
Projected Record: 69-93
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