2022 Baseball Preview, Part V

Once again, I have no idea who's going to win the NL Central this season.  The Brewers won the division last season and have the best pitching staff, while the Cardinals went on that ridiculous run in September to earn a place in the Wild Card Game.  Then there's the Cubs, who shed franchise cornerstones Anthony Rizzo and Kris Bryant at last year's trade deadline, but have definitely reloaded.  And with their pitching, anything's possible.

Cincinnati, meanwhile, is going the other way.  As soon as the lockout ended, the Reds tore it all down, signaling that even Joey Votto's tenure may be coming to an end.  And the Pirates are still the Pirates.  While I've already admitted I don't know who'll win the NL Central, I feel confident in saying it won't be Cincinnati or Pittsburgh.

The sentimental favorite has to be St. Louis.  We already knew this was Yadi Molina's final season.  Then Albert came back for a farewell tour.  After a decade away, he's ending his Hall of Fame career where it all started.  It's like when Ken Griffey Jr. and Ichiro returned to Seattle.  He's not anywhere near the same player he was when he left the Cardinals 10 years ago.  It doesn't matter.  There's just something so right about it.  It feels like he's back where he belongs.

That's not the reason why I'm picking the Cardinals in the division, but it certainly is a fun little storyline.  I think St. Louis is slightly more complete than Milwaukee, which is why I give them the edge.  I wouldn't be surprised at all to see them both back in the playoffs, though.

1. St. Louis Cardinals: For a change, the Cardinals don't enter the season with a couple familiar veterans and a bunch of guys you've never heard of.  In fact, their projected lineup looks shockingly familiar.  Albert's return actually makes a lot of sense from a baseball standpoint, too.  He proved last season with the Dodgers that he can still mash against left-handed pitching, and they can plug him in at first every once in a while if Goldschmidt needs a day off or a DH day.

Let's not forget about the third 40-year-old Cardinal who's still going strong...Adam Wainwright.  He made 32 starts last year and went 17-7.  In fact, Wainwright only needs 16 wins for 200.  If he stays healthy, that's certainly attainable.  There's no doubt that Andrew Miller's retirement will have a big impact on the bullpen.  And that bullpen could be the difference between the Cardinals winning the division and the Brewers winning the division.  I think St. Louis is the better team overall, though.
Projected Lineup: Tommy Edman-2B, Paul Goldschmidt-1B, Nolan Arenado-3B, Tyler O'Neill-LF, Harrison Bader-CF, Albert Pujols-DH, Paul DeJong-SS, Yadier Molina-C, Dylan Carlson-RF
Projected Rotation: Adam Wainwright, Miles Mikolas, Steven Matz, Dakota Hudson, Drew VerHagen
Closer: Giovanny Gallegos
Projected Record: 90-72

2. Milwaukee Brewers: There's a lot to like about the Brewers.  They've got the reigning Cy Young winner in Corbin Burnes and a ridiculously good bullpen anchored by Devin Williams and Josh Hader.  That bullpen tends to get overused (and overworked), though, which leads to them getting tired in September.  So, it's really incumbent on Burnes, Brandon Woodruff and the rest of the starters to go deep into games and save the bullpen from having to throw so many innings.

Milwaukee's lineup is obviously very strong, too.  But they're not very deep, especially a long, significant one, could really derail things.  They're also banking on a lot of if's.  They know what they're gonna get from Christian Yelich and Lorenzo Cain, but I'm not so sure about guys like Rowdy Tellez, Hunter Renfroe and especially Omar Narvez.  IF they can put up the power numbers they're capable of, this is a very powerful lineup.  If not, the Brewers could struggle to score runs.  That's the other reason why I give St. Louis the slight edge.  Milwaukee definitely has the better pitching, but the Cardinals have a better lineup.  Even still, they'll be in the playoff mix, either for the NL Central title or a wild card berth, all season long.
Projected Lineup: Lorenzo Cain-CF, Andrew McCutchen-DH, Christian Yelich-LF, Rowdy Tellez-1B, Omar Narvaez-C, Hunter Renfroe-RF, Willy Adams-SS, Jace Peterson-3B, Kolten Wong-2B
Projected Rotation: Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff, Freddy Peralta, Adrian Houser, Eric Lauer
Closer: Josh Hader
Projected Record: 84-78

3. Chicago Cubs: Last season is when the Cubs officially put the curse-breaking 2016 championship behind them.  As it turns out, though, they were simply accelerating the process.  Because they freed up playing time for guys like Patrick Wisdom and Nico Hoerner while also giving themselves the financial flexibility to be active in free agency.  Specifically, it helped them land Seiya Suzuki, this year's prized Japanese import.  They also took a flier on Clint Frazier, who, mark my words, is gonna be an All*Star now that he knows he's got a starting spot and won't need to fight for playing time.  Frankly, I think getting out of New York will be liberating for him.

Getting out of New York will probably be liberating for Marcus Stroman, too.  Stroman slots in behind Kyle Hendricks as a solid No. 2.  The rest of the rotation is suspect, though, which is why I can't put them in the same league as the Cardinals and Brewers.  I'm not entirely sold on the Cubs' bullpen, either.  There's a lot of potential to be good there, but there are also a lot of question marks.  If their pitching can hold up, though, they've got a shot to make some noise.
Projected Lineup: Ian Happ-DH, Patrick Wisdom-3B, Wilson Contreras-C, Clint Frazier-LF, Jason Heyward-CF, Seiya Suzuki-RF, Frank Schwindel-1B, Nico Hoerner-SS, Nick Madrigal-2B
Projected Rotation: Kyle Hendricks, Marcus Stroman, Alec Mills, Drew Smyly, Justin Steele
Closer: David Robertson
Projected Record: 82-80

4. Cincinnati Reds: They sent a clear message to their fans in the first few days after the lockout.  That message was "we're not trying to win this season."  That's the only reason I can think of for the Suarez/Winker trade, as well as the Sonny Gray and Amir Garrett trades.  And Luis Castillo will start the season on the injured list, so add another name to the list of familiar Reds who won't be in uniform on Opening Day.  Which actually makes me feel kinda bad for Joey Votto.

Votto's a franchise icon, who'll be wearing a Reds hat on his plaque in Cooperstown.  But he doesn't have that many years left, and this franchise is no closer to the World Series than it has been at any other point in his career.  Even without Suarez and Winker, they'll hit plenty of home runs at Great American Small Park.  The problem is they'll also give up a lot.  That seems to perpetually be the Reds' biggest problem.  They simply don't have enough pitching.  Which will be the case again in 2022.  They have the fourth-best rotation and fourth-best bullpen in the division.  So, you can probably expect a lot of 9-7 and 10-8 losses for Cincinnati.  But, hey, at least the Bengals are good now!
Projected Lineup: Jonathan India-2B, Joey Votto-1B, Nick Senzel-CF, Tommy Pham-LF, Mike Moustakas-3B, Colin Moran-DH, Tyler Naquin-RF, Tyler Stephenson-C, Kyle Farmer-SS
Projected Rotation: Tyler Mahle, Vladimir Gutierrez, Nick Lodolo, Hunter Greene, Reiver Sanmartin
Closer: Hunter Strickland
Projected Record: 72-90

5. Pittsburgh Pirates: Ah, the Pirates.  What can I say about the Pirates?  They've actually got some really good young talent.  Bryan Reynolds started the All*Star Game last season, and Jacob Stallings was so solid behind the plate that the Marlins traded three players for him.  Reynolds could be the next Pirate to go, which is actually meant as a compliment, since it'll mean a contender (or contenders) want him at the trade deadline.  Or, Reynolds, Ke'Bryan Hayes and Kevin Newman will be the franchise cornerstones that the Pirates look to build around.

It's not all young guys, though.  Pittsburgh also has a lot of retreads who haven't really gotten the chance to be full-time starters before.  Will the low-pressure situation be exactly what guys like Daniel Vogelbach, Ben Gamel and Yoshi Tsutsugo need?  Whether they have a good year statistically or not doesn't even really matter.  Because it's gonna be a long year in Pittsburgh no matter what.  They aren't bad enough to lose 100, but they'll probably be somewhere in the mid-90s.  Anything fewer than 90 losses would be a pretty successful season, actually.
Projected Lineup: Kevin Newman-SS, Cole Tucker-2B, Bryan Reynolds-CF, Ke'Bryan Hayes-3B, Daniel Vogelbach-1B, Ben Gamel-LF, Roberto Perez-C, Yoshi Tsutsugo-DH, Greg Allen-RF
Projected Rotation: JT Brubaker, Mitch Keller, Jose Quintana, Wil Crowe, Zach Thompson
Closer: Chris Stratton
Projected Record: 66-96