Not the World Series We Expected

I saw a ridiculous article lamenting that "the two best teams aren't in the World Series," to which I say, "So what?"  It's not the first time that the "best" teams didn't make it, and it won't be the last.  I also saw articles complaining that the Braves had home field in the NLCS even though the Dodgers won 106 games.  Well, get over it!  That's the format, which is designed that way intentionally so that the division winner isn't at a disadvantage.  Everyone knows that's the deal.  It's part of the reason winning the division is so important.  So, sorry, it wasn't "unfair" to the Dodgers that the Braves had home field.  (BTW, the Dodgers would've had home field in the World Series had they won since that is based on wins.)

This isn't the World Series we expected, but it's the one we got.  The Braves had the fewest wins of any playoff team.  Nobody gave them a chance against the Dodgers in the NLCS.  Yet here they are.  Atlanta got hot, LA had too many injuries, and the Braves advanced to their first World Series in 22 years.

After Game 3 of the ALCS, everyone was acting like the series was already over.  The Red Sox had scored approximately 35 runs in the last two games and there was "no way" the Astros' pitching would be able to contain the Boston offense.  Then the Red Sox stopped hitting, Yordan Alvarez started hitting, and Houston won its third pennant in five seasons.

So, regardless of what some people may have expected or wanted, it's Braves-Astros.  It is a surprise.  There's no doubt about that.  Atlanta had to completely remake its outfield at the All*Star Break, and Houston had no starting pitching to speak of for much of the season.  Neither one was favored in the LCS.  Now they head into a World Series that they both have very realistic thoughts about winning.

As with any World Series (or championship of any sort), there are plenty of ridiculous storylines.  There's all the people who think the Braves reaching the World Series is some sort of karmic justice for MLB moving the All*Star Game, which was originally supposed to be in Atlanta.  Which is utter nonsense! 

Likewise, there are those who see this as some sort of "redemption" for the Astros after the cheating scandal.  If anything, it makes the cheating scandal look even dumber in comparison.  Because they were good enough to win without cheating.  (And, seeing as the players were never punished, the resentment isn't going away anytime soon.)

There are plenty of feel-good stories surrounding this World Series, though.  Dusty Baker is finally back in the Fall Classic for the first time since 2002.  It would be great to see him get a ring after such a long and distinguished managerial career.  The same can also be said for Braves manager Brian Snitker, a baseball lifer who's spent decades in the organization.  (Snitker's son is a coach for the Astros, so the Snitker family is guaranteed a ring no matter what.)  And, in an era where analytics-driven young managers are all the rage, we have the matchup of the two oldest World Series managers in history.  That should tell you something.

Then there's Freddie Freeman.  It'll be so great to see him in a World Series!  He's been the Face of the Braves since Chipper Jones retired, as well as one of the best players in baseball over the past decade.  He deserves to play in a World Series, and I'm glad he'll finally get to!  It's also cool to see the Braves back in the World Series in the year we lost Hank Aaron.  What a great way to honor his legacy!

Joc Pederson is also worth a mention.  He won a ring last year with the Dodgers and has a chance to become just the ninth player in history to win consecutive World Series with different teams.  Joc's already a bit of a cult hero because of his ridiculous production in the postseason.  This can just add to his legendary status.
  
Of course, Pederson may not even be in the Atlanta lineup for Game 1, when Framber Valdez will be on the mound for Houston after the best start by any pitcher in either LCS.  But Jorge Soler will be in there instead.  Soler just came back from having COVID and Pederson took his place in right field during his absence.  But, with the first two games in Houston, Atlanta will get a chance to play them both.  Unless Pederson sits against Valdez, in which case Soler can play right and Johan Camargo can DH.

Houston, on the other hand, has the typical AL problem.  What are they gonna do about the outfield when the series shifts to Atlanta?  How do they keep both Alvarez's and Brantley's bats in the lineup?  Would they consider putting Alvarez in right and moving Tucker to center, putting two guys out of position in an unfamiliar ballpark (that presumably doesn't have easily-accessible garbage cans)?

And how's the pitching gonna hold up?  One of the biggest keys of Houston's ALCS comeback was their much-improved starting pitching over the final three games, especially Games 5 and 6.  The starters were not good in the first three games, which led to the bullpen having to get a lot of outs.  That's generally a recipe for disaster in a seven-game series (which both of these teams know firsthand; their bullpens were exhausted after the seven-games-in-seven-days LCSes last year).  But, it actually had the reverse effect.  Since the starters were so bad the first time around, they were fresher and the Red Sox didn't have the at-bats against them in the second start.

Atlanta's NLCS pitching strategy, meanwhile, was just to parade one lefty after another out of the bullpen to counteract the Dodgers' left-handed hitting.  I can see them doing the same thing again.  Expect Matzek and Minter to face Alvarez, Brantley and Tucker quite a few times over the next nine days.  They'll need to get something out of their right-handers, though.  Otherwise Altuve, Correa and Bregman will tee-off.

Overall, though, I think Atlanta has the slight advantage.  And it's because of the starting pitching.  Charlie Morton, Max Fried and Ian Anderson aren't Maddux, Glavine and Smoltz, but they're battle-tested and, frankly, I have more confidence in them than I do in Framber Valdez and Luis Garcia (who were brilliant in the ALCS).

Don't be surprised if the series goes the distance, though.  After all, the Astros have played 14 World Series games over their past two trips.  Houston may be weary of a Game 7, however.  Because, after that long winning streak by home teams in Game 7's, the road team has won the last four.  Which the Astros know well, having won at Dodger Stadium in 2017 and lost at home to Washington in 2019.

It's a little superstitious, but I see that streak reaching five straight.  I'm saying Braves in seven.  (Although, Atlanta has its own eight-game World Series losing streak to worry about first.  I think it gets to 10 before ending in Game 3, which be the first World Series game not played in Texas since Game 5 of 2019, ending another 10-game string.)