Super Wild Card Weekend

"Super Wild Card Weekend."  It really is a great name that the NFL came up with for the new, expanded playoff format.  Beyond the supersizedness of back-to-back tripleheaders, though, this weekend is super for some other reasons.  The Buffalo Bills are playing a playoff home game for the first time in 25 years...and the Bills Mafia will be there!  The Cleveland Browns are back in the playoffs!  So are the Tampa Bay Bucs!  It's great to finally see some different teams in there alongside some of the usual suspects (Pittsburgh, New Orleans, Seattle, Baltimore).  It's also great to finally have a playoffs that won't include the Patriots!

I'm interested to see how much of an impact the new format will have, too.  Especially on the 2-seeds.  We've obviously seen plenty of teams that played on Wild Card Weekend reach and even win the Super Bowl, but only the No. 1 seeds getting a bye could have a huge impact.  Although, that could have more to do with the fact that the NFC Championship Game would be in Green Bay than the Packers being the only team with a week off.

That's not until next week, obviously.  And, frankly, I have a very hard time seeing anybody in the AFC beating Kansas City.  The Bills aren't as good as the Chiefs and the Steelers are a shell of what they were early in the season.  The Baltimore-Tennessee winner could make it a game next week, but that's really about it.  So, my pick in the AFC is the defending champions.

Green Bay, on the other hand, I can actually see getting a challenge.  I'd like the Saints so much more if they had home field, but I don't see them going into Lambeau and winning.  The Seahawks, however, that one's definitely possible.  In fact, I'm gonna go there.  Seattle will beat the Rams, win in New Orleans next week, then beat the Packers in Lambeau to set up a Super Bowl LV matchup against the Chiefs, where Kansas City will become the first team in nearly 20 years to repeat.

Colts (11-5) at Bills (13-3): Buffalo-It seems a little anticlimactic to unveil my Super Bowl pick before I break down the wild card games, but what are you gonna do?  Game No. 1 of Super Wild Card Weekend is in Buffalo.  The Bills' last home playoff game was Jim Kelly's final game in the NFL.  It was that long ago!  Of course, it's been even longer since their last playoff win, which was in 1995.

Frankly, the Bills' outstanding regular season means very little if they don't get their first playoff victory in 25 years.  They know it, too.  Fortunately, this team is a lot better than the one that blew it against Houston last year.  And you know they're fired up to be playing at home, too!  Great job by the Colts to get in.  If this was last season, they'd be the rare 11-5 team that missed the playoffs.  Getting in was their reward, though.  Because the Bills won't let themselves lose.

Rams (10-6) at Seahawks (12-4): Seattle-They played just two weeks ago, with the Seahawks beating the Rams to clinch the division.  The Rams then took care of business against Arizona to earn a return trip to Seattle.  That was probably the best-case scenario for them, too.  Not only are they familiar with the Seahawks, they didn't have to leave the West Coast!  Both teams play in the Pacific time zone, so that takes away one of the advantages Seattle would've had.  Seattle's other big advantage that's gone, of course, is the crowd.  Which, in the playoffs especially, could be significant.

When these two met two weeks ago, Jared Goff hurt his finger, which was a big factor in the Seattle win.  He'll supposedly be back, but you have to wonder how limited he'll be.  Frankly, I don't think it matters whether or not Goff plays and whether or not he's effective.  Because the Seahawks are on a roll!  They've won four straight since that little blip against the Giants.  The fact that they just beat the Rams helps, too.  Seattle moves into the Divisional Playoffs once again.

Buccaneers (11-5) at Washington (7-9): Tampa Bay-Tom Brady 1, Bill Belichick 0.  You know it's gotta feel good for him to be in a familiar January setting while his old team went 7-9 in their first season without him.  Of course, Tampa Bay's opponent this week also went 7-9 this season, as Washington is the first sub-.500 division winner since the Panthers in 2014.  A Panthers team that was, incidentally, coached by Ron Rivera.  And, let's not forget, Carolina beat Arizona in its wild card game that season.

 As we've seen on numerous occasions this season, Washington is better than it's record.  They're very formidable, in fact.  Tampa Bay is the strongest wild card team in either conference and is being talked about as a possible sleeper Super Bowl team, plus they have Brady, but this won't be a Bucs rout.  Especially since Tampa Bay is a different team on the road.  I'll still give them the nod, but this game will be much closer than the teams' records might otherwise indicate.

Ravens (11-5) at Titans (11-5): Baltimore-Last season, the Titans went into Baltimore and knocked off the top-seeded Ravens.  So, of course, they meet again the following year!  You know the Ravens remember and would love to return the favor.  This time the game is in Nashville, however.  Will that make a difference?

On paper, this is the best game of the six.  The Titans will use the same strategy that carried them to the AFC Championship Game last season.  Hand the ball to Derrick Henry and let him run.  It's not a bad plan, seeing as he rushed for over 2,000 yards.  What the Ravens need is Lamar Jackson to play significantly better than he did in last season's playoff matchup with the Titans.  If they get a good performance from their quarterback and the defense can handle Henry, Baltimore can come away with the victory.

Bears (8-8) at Saints (12-4): New Orleans-Drew Brees has indicated that he'll retire after the season, so, if that's true, this could be one of the final games in his Hall of Fame career.  And you know that'll give the Saints plenty of extra motivation to send him out with a title, which is something they're completely capable of.  Especially if that offense does what we know it can do.

There isn't much to say about the Bears.  I'll give credit where it's due.  They got hot down the stretch and took advantage of the extra wild card to earn the seventh and last spot.  But they're the worst of the 14 teams.  I'd even argue that Washington is better.  They have a solid defense and suddenly became this offensive force out of nowhere.  But they're no match for the Saints.

Browns (11-5) at Steelers (12-4): Pittsburgh-Fun fact: this is the third consecutive Browns playoff game in Pittsburgh.  They finally return to the postseason after 18 years, only to draw their hated archrivals, who they just faced last week.  The Browns, of course, won that game to clinch their wild card, but very little can be taken from that contest.  Pittsburgh was resting key players for this week, and a bunch of starters didn't even travel!

Cleveland's return to the playoffs is one of the feel-good stories of this season.  Unfortunately, they had a COVID outbreak at the most inopportune time.  They weren't able to practice all week, and their head coach won't be available.  They did get lucky in one regard.  This is the Sunday night game, so they get a little extra time to prepare.  I'm not sure it'll matter, though.  For all their struggles over the final month of the season, Pittsburgh is still the better team.  It'll be close, but the Steelers should be able to win.

Last Week: 13-3
Overall: 166-89-1