Second Postponement Impossible

Enthusiasm for the rescheduled Olympics is lukewarm at best in Japan.  Recent polls have indicated that Japanese citizens, who were at one point incredibly excited about welcoming the world, have cooled.  Only a vast minority think the Olympics should go ahead as planned.  Most would rather they be postponed again or outright cancelled.

A number of prominent current and former athletes, among others, have also pushed for a second postponement.  (Today I say famed British rower Matthew Pinsent suggest that they simply push Tokyo, Paris and LA all back by four years.)  However, that's simply not going to happen.  The IOC has said as much.  If the Tokyo Olympics don't take place this summer, they won't take place at all.

There are simply too many logistical hurdles to make a second postponement work.  Frankly, it took a great deal of cooperation and coordination for the organizers to be able to pull off a one-year delay.  Trying to do that again isn't just impractical, it's unrealistic.  Which is why the IOC and Tokyo Olympic organizers have flat out rejected any suggestion they delay a second time.

Let's look at just some of the logistical issues that would come into play, starting with the most obvious--money.  The one-year postponement has already added billions to the Olympic budget.  Now add another year to that.  They'd have to pay staff salaries for another year and go another year without the income from their sponsors.  Broadcasters would likely have to be repaid, as well.  International federations, meanwhile, wouldn't get their cut of the Olympic revenues that they need to fund their own operations.

Sponsorship agreements are a completely separate issue.  A lot of Tokyo's contracts expired at the end of 2020.  They were able to renew them for an additional year, but they'd need to ask to extend them by another year again.  IOC sponsors, meanwhile, run on a four-year cycle starting the year after the Summer Games.  So, all IOC partnerships have already had their cycle thrown off.  And pushing Tokyo to the summer of 2022 would mean that the next Olympics are the 2022 Winter Games in Beijing, when different sponsors will be on board.

Same thing with broadcasters.  Most of the IOC's revenue comes from the worldwide broadcast rights.  The broadcasters, obviously, are heavily invested in the Olympics and dedicate hours of programming to their coverage over the 17 days.  Not having the Olympics means either not getting that broadcast revenue or having to give the networks a make-do.  Either way, they don't get broadcast fees for a Summer Olympics (the more valuable property).  Whether it's now or later doesn't really matter.  It would cost them billions regardless.

Then there's the facilities.  That was the single biggest issue related with the one-year postponement.  Every venue being used at the Olympics has a designated post-Games use.  The Olympic Village is supposed to be turned into apartments.  People were already supposed to be living in those apartments.  That's just one example.  But similar problems exist with other venues.  Will they be available in the summer of 2022?  Can you put off their post-Games use another year?

Now, how about the international federations?  I already mentioned how a number of them are in financial trouble because they base their budgets on funds that they receive from the IOC.  The IOC has advanced some of those payments, but there needs to be an Olympics for them to receive their full share.  Otherwise, it'll take those federations a long time climbing out of that hole.

Beyond that, though, the international federations were incredibly accommodating to make an Olympic postponement work.  All World Championships that were originally scheduled for 2021 were moved to 2022.  They can't readjust their calendars again.  Especially since they've already condensed their four-year between Olympics schedule into three years.  And, let's not forget, each sport's federation needs to hold its own events, too, since they also need to recoup some of their losses after losing most, if not all, of their revenue streams in 2020.

Finally, there are the athletes.  They can't continually be left in limbo.  That was the difficult situation they were in last February and March, when there were lockdowns all around the world but the Games were still on and they had to try and find a way to keep training.  The postponement eased that burden a little, and they were all able to refocus for this summer.  These are world-class, elite-level athletes who build training schedules specifically with the Olympics in mind.  You can't ask them to do that again.

So, as you can see, another delay simply wouldn't work.  It might sound simple.  In reality, though, it's anything but.  It took a lot to turn Tokyo 2020 into Tokyo 2021.  Doing it again and turning the Games into Tokyo 2022 is all but impossible, for the reasons I mentioned and many others.  Which is why the Tokyo organizers and IOC are doing everything they can to make sure the Olympics begin as (re)scheduled in July.

All of the uncertainty about whether that can be accomplished is real, and the questions are all legitimate.  But, for their part, the IOC and the Tokyo organizers are doing everything they can to navigate those unknowns.  Things could be the same in the summer.  Or they could be worse.  Or we could be on our way back to normal.  We just don't know!  After all, at this time last year, we had no idea that the world would be entirely shut down two months later!

They'll make a decision about fans at the end of March, right around when the torch relay is set to resume.  Fans would obviously be better, even if it's reduced capacity.  Will they allow spectators from all over the world?  Or just Japan?  If they let outsiders in, will they need to quarantine?  Will athletes?  Will proof of a vaccine (or, at the very least, a negative test) be required to enter the country?

Likewise, they've adopted a number of safety measures that are guaranteed to make these Olympics unique (which they already will be).  Masks and social distancing will likely be required, and athletes will have strict rules about where they're allowed to go and when.  They're even being told when they can enter the Village and when they have to leave (although, all athletes should be allowed to participate in either the Opening or Closing Ceremony, so I hope they at least make it so that can happen).

Even with all of those precautions in place, we still don't know if the Tokyo Olympics will be able to go ahead.  There's growing skepticism, especially with Tokyo back under a state of emergency, but the plan is still to hold the Olympics as scheduled, albeit one year later.  And there's no reason to believe that the IOC won't be able to find a way to put them on.

Simply put, the Tokyo Olympics can't be postponed a second time.  It would be great if we could say for a fact that they'll definitely happen, but we unfortunately can't.  Those doubts are real, and we won't have those answers for a while.  What we do know, though, is that if the Tokyo Olympics don't open on July 23, they won't open at all.