Championship Sunday

We've reached Championship Sunday in the NFL.  Not only that, the four remaining teams actually are the four best teams in the league.  I can legitimately see any one of them hoisting the Lombardi Trophy in two weeks.  Which means we should get two good ones today.  Three of the four quarterbacks have both won a Super Bowl and been MVP, and at least two of them are headed to the Hall of Fame.  And the best might be the one guy who doesn't have either!

I can easily see both road teams winning.  But they'll need everything to go right for that to happen.  Meanwhile, the Chiefs and Packers earned the 1-seeds for a reason.  They don't need to play a perfect game to win.  They just need to not screw up.  Plus, they'll have a home crowd to support them.  It won't be a packed stadium.  But that'll still make a difference, especially if it's close late in the game.

Buccaneers (13-5) at Packers (14-3): Green Bay-Wouldn't it be nice to see Tom Brady finally make it to the Super Bowl after toiling for so long and always coming up short?  He deserves it, doesn't he?  I kid, of course, as a means of making fun of the people who are excited about the prospects of the Bucs in the Super Bowl so that "somebody new" can make it.  And, yes, that would technically be true.  But, regardless of what jersey he's wearing, you can't exactly categorize a guy who's reached nine of them and won six as "new blood."

As it is, it's an incredible achievement that Tampa Bay has made it this far in Brady's first season with the team.  Most people expected them to make the playoffs and become a Super Bowl contender within a year or two.  But I don't think anyone saw it all coming together in the first year.

It'll take a lot for Brady and Co. to become the first Super Bowl home team, though.  Because on the other side of the field will be a Packers team that has very few weaknesses.  Then you throw in the fact that it's gonna be a typical January Sunday in Green Bay, which is obviously a huge advantage for the Packers (Brady got used to that type of weather in New England, but it still makes a huge difference for a team based in the South). 

And, let's not forget, Aaron Rodgers is playing an NFC Championship Game at home for the first time in his career.  The Packers have been regular participants on Championship Sunday, but have lost their last three appearances since their Super Bowl run 10 years ago.  They think one of the big reasons why is because they've had to go on the road each time.  Playing at Lambeu, in Green Bay weather, in front of their (limited) fans was important to them.  Now that they finally have that opportunity, they're not gonna blow it.

Last week, Tampa Bay took advantage of a really sloppy game by the Saints, scoring most of their points off turnovers.  Sorry to make it sound so simple, but taking care of the ball really is the biggest key.  If the Packers can control the clock and hold on to the ball, the game is theirs to lose.  The weather should help in that regard, since it's much more conducive to the running game, and Green Bay's running game is much better.  The Packers also have a better defense than the Saints, so they can press the issue and force Brady to beat them.  Especially if they get an early lead.

When these two met in the regular season, Green Bay scored 10 early points before Tampa Bay scored the next 38 and won going away.  Both teams are better now than they were then.  And this one will be closer as a result.  However, I think the Packers' home field advantage will be exactly that.  The Bucs won't become the first team to play a Super Bowl in their home stadium.  Instead, Rodgers finally goes back to another, 10 years after his first.

Bills (15-3) at Chiefs (15-2): Kansas City-The last time the Bills and Chiefs met in the AFC Championship Game, Hall of Famers Jim Kelly and Joe Montana were the quarterbacks.  It's been THAT long!  Especially for the Bills, who are looking to get back to the Super Bowl for the first time since the glory days of the early 90s.

This Bills team is highly capable of joining that legendary crew.  Just look at all the different ways they've won games this season.  They had a bunch where they put up a ton of points.  They had a bunch where they won with their defense.  Two weeks ago against the Colts, it was a back-and-forth contest that they won with a defensive stop on the last play of the game.  Then last week, they held Baltimore to a grand total of three points.

Unfortunately for the Bills, who might be the second-best team playing this weekend, neither the Colts' nor Ravens' offense is remotely the caliber of Kansas City's.  Although, that's assuming the Chiefs have their entire arsenal, which is still somewhat questionable.  Patrick Mahomes will play after getting knocked out of the Divisional Playoff with a concussion, but you still have to wonder if he's 100 percent. 

If he is (or is even close), Kansas City's in really good shape.  If he isn't, they're in trouble.  Because Chad Henne's no Patrick Mahomes.  He made some big plays against Cleveland, but the Bills defense is an entirely different animal!  After all, look what they did to Philip Rivers and Lamar Jackson!  Again, I hate to make it sound so simple, but the health of Mahomes is perhaps the biggest key to the game for both teams.

Since he got cleared and is going to play, let's assume Kansas City has a full-strength Mahomes.  A full-strength Mahomes vs. a full-strength Josh Allen could easily turn this game into a shootout, regardless of how good the defenses are.  And, I'll take Patrick Mahomes in a shootout any day of the week.

Kansas City is the first team in history to host three straight AFC Championship Games (not even those 90s Bills did that).  Of course, they don't care about that.  Their goal is getting back to the Super Bowl and becoming the first team to win back-to-back Lombardi Trophies since the 2003-04 Patriots.  They'll be one game away after snagging their second straight AFC title, and setting up a Super Bowl I rematch with the Packers.

Last Week: 2-2
Playoffs: 6-4
Overall: 172-93-1