Only Two Left In the Bubble

Seventeen months later, the Tampa Bay Lightning are finally doing what they were supposed to do last postseason.  The Lightning had a historic regular season in 2018-19, only to be shockingly swept out of the playoffs by Columbus in the first round.  You can tell that's been on their minds.  Because ever since they arrived in the NHL's bubble, they've been playing like they have something to prove.

Meanwhile, I don't think there's any question that Dallas has been the best team in the league since the restart.  They've got plenty of star power (pardon the pun), and it's been on full display.  They seemingly score at will, and they get production from all four lines!  Throw in the outstanding goaltending they've gotten from Anton Khudobin and it's no surprise that they've worked their way to the Stanley Cup Final.

Tampa Bay, of course, has plenty of its own star power.  The Lightning are one of the most talented teams in the league.  And, like Dallas, they can beat you in different ways.  They had a seven-goal game against Boston and scored eight in Game 1 vs. the Islanders, but they've also played six games where Andrei Vasilevskiy only allowed one goal, including the East Final clincher. 

So it's fitting that these are the last two teams standing.  Because they really have been the best teams in their respective bubbles.  Dallas has been especially impressive in the last two rounds, beating the No. 2 seed Colorado in an entertaining series with a ton of goals, then taking all of the top-seeded Golden Knights' best shots in the West Final.  They scored just nine times and still won the series in five (and the game they lost was a shutout)!

Where does that leave us as we get ready for the Cup Final though?  Well, we've got two evenly-matched teams with solid goaltenders, who've both proven they can win different types of games.  Which means that we'll see a 5-4 game one night, then a 2-1 game the next.  It'll be interesting to see who ends up having the advantage in each type.  Either way, it looks like we're in for a fun, competitive series.

When the last two games of the East Final went to overtime, they made the point that Tampa Bay has played 19 postseason games including the round robin, but it's the equivalent of 23 once you factor in all the overtimes.  Dallas has played more games (21), but they've only played four overtime periods, and one of those barely counts since they scored like 25 seconds in or something like that!

More importantly, the Stars last played on Monday, so they'll enter the Final having had four days off.  They've also been in Edmonton the entire time.  Despite being done with their second-round series on Aug. 1, the Lightning had to stay in Toronto until the Islanders-Flyers series was over, then have played every other day since arriving in Edmonton.  Now, after getting one day off, they're looking at potentially playing seven in 12 days, including Games 4 & 5 back-to-back.  (For the record, I hope it doesn't go the distance, since Game 7 would be on the same night as all eight baseball Wild Card series.)

That may not actually make any difference at all.  (After all, everybody had three months off before this.)  But the deeper the series goes, the more it could become a factor.  Especially for Tampa Bay.  The Lightning haven't just played more in a shorter amount of time, they played a very physical series against the Islanders.  The Stars, meanwhile, haven't left Edmonton since this whole thing started.

On paper, Tampa Bay is the better team.  The Lightning were considered serious Cup contenders throughout the regular season and finished with the third-most points in the league.  And they've really picked up right where they left off.  Is that something even worth taking into consideration, though?  Especially since Dallas has been the hottest team in the playoffs.  And, as we see seemingly every year, it's not always the best team that wins the Cup.  It's usually the hottest.

And I have a feeling that with the way Dallas has been playing, especially with how good Khudobin was against Vegas, the Stars won't just roll over.  The Lightning know this.  After all, they saw first-hand what Dallas did to the Golden Knights (one of the perks of the bubble: live scouting!).  I think they're preparing themselves for a long series.

But who wins?  That's the $1 million question.  I wouldn't be surprised if Dallas does.  If you'd asked me back in March when the season was paused if the Stars had any chance of winning the Cup, my answer would've been an emphatic "No way!"  But the team that's spent the last two months in the NHL bubble?  They've absolutely got a shot.  A good one in fact.

With all that being said, though, I just get that Team of Destiny feeling from the Lightning.  They know they should've won last year, when they were embarrassed in the first round.  So, of course, their first-round opponent this year is the same team--Columbus.  And, of course, the first game goes five overtimes!  That game set the tone for this entire playoff run, too.  The Lightning have played six overtime games (two in each series), three of which have gone to multiple OTs.  They're 5-1 in those games, including all three series clinchers.

They remind me a lot of two recent championship teams.  The 2018 Washington Capitals and the 2019 Kansas City Chiefs.  The Capitals were such a great regular season team for so long, but couldn't get past Pittsburgh in the playoffs.  Once they finally did, you just knew they were going all the way.  Same thing with last season's Chiefs.  After they lost the AFC Championship Game to the Patriots, it was Super Bowl or Bust.  And once they got there, you knew they weren't gonna lose (even when the 49ers had that fourth quarter lead I still thought Kansas City was gonna come back and win).

There isn't really any rhyme or reason behind my pick.  The teams are so evenly matched that I think it's going seven games either way.  But I've just got that feeling about the Tampa Bay Lightning.  They best team of the 2018-19 regular season hoists the Cup as the champions in 2020.