2020 NFC Preview

Before getting into Part II of my NFL preview, there's one thing about the upcoming season that I need to get off my chest.  Some teams are planning on allowing fans into their games this season (while observing social distancing of course).  Others aren't.  That shouldn't be allowed.  Over the summer, the NFL said teams couldn't reopen their facilities until all 32 had gotten the OK from government officials.  It should be the same thing here.  If one team can't have spectators, nobody should.

Anyway, while the AFC has a clear favorite in Kansas City, the NFC is much more wide open.  On paper, the Saints are probably the best team, but the last two Super Bowl participants have come out of the West--and neither is the Seahawks, who may be better than both of them!  And Dallas made a fantastic coaching hire in Mike McCarthy.  All the pieces are there.  Can he end the Cowboys' NFC Championship Game drought?

I don't want to call the NFC top-heavy, though.  Because even some of the "bad" teams are pretty good.  Arizona is the fourth-best team in a division that might have three playoff teams.  In fact, I'd argue that there will only be three real bottom-feeders in the NFC--Washington, Carolina and the Giants.  And even the Giants will probably be better this season.

So, that extra wild card is going to be a huge prize.  Because there are realistically 10 or 11 teams that have legitimate playoff aspirations.  And that doesn't include the Cardinals, who could easily emerge as a sleeper team.  Which means that everybody needs to bring their A game every week.  Because that random home loss to the Lions where you just laid a complete egg could end up being what knocks you out of the playoffs.

East: Cowboys (11-5), Eagles (9-7), Giants (5-11), Washington (3-13)
The NFC East has been a two-horse race between Dallas and Philadelphia over the past few seasons, and this year should be no different.  Except this time, it should be the Cowboys who end up on top.  Frankly, I think Dallas is the most talented team in the entire NFC with the exception of New Orleans.  And, like I said, Mike McCarthy is the perfect coach for that team.  Which leaves the Eagles fighting for a wild card, which is certainly a possibility.  And if Carson Wentz can actually stay healthy for the entire season, who knows what might happen?

Then there are the other two teams, who likely won't be improving from their also-ran status.  The Giants aren't nearly as bad as they've been over the past few years, but they still aren't at the level that will make them competitive for a playoff berth.  And I'm not excited at all about the Joe Judge coaching hire.  I think he'll be in way over his head.  The Artists Formerly Known as the Redskins, meanwhile, made an excellent coaching hire in Ron Rivera.  They have way too much off-the-field turmoil to worry about, in addition to the fact that they don't have nearly enough talent.  Washington is more likely to contend for the No. 1 pick than the playoffs.

North: Packers (10-6), Vikings (8-8), Bears (6-10), Lions (5-11)
Green Bay will either go 12-4 and battle for the No. 1 seed, go 10-6 and win the division, or go 6-10 and miss the playoffs.  The Packers seem to be a team of extremes.  But as long as Aaron Rodgers is their quarterback, it would be foolish to think they won't end up in the postseason.  I give them the edge in the division because the Vikings simply aren't as good as Green Bay.  Minnesota traded its best offensive weapon in Stefon Diggs, so now Kurt Cousins is really gonna need to prove he's worth that contract.

It's almost become a running joke with the Chicago Bears.  They suck for a few years, randomly win the division, then go back to sucking.  It's been a little while since their last playoff appearance, so this could easily be the random 10-6/11-5 year.  I expect more of the same from them, though.  Which will be the case until they figure out their quarterback situation.  And I don't know what to make of Detroit.  The Lions will beat some good teams, but they'll also have some head-scratching losses.  If everything goes right, they could be a playoff team.  What are the odds of that happening, though?

South: Saints (12-4), Buccaneers (9-7), Falcons (7-9), Panthers (4-12)
One guy suddenly made the NFC South a lot more interesting.  Because Tom Brady signing with Tampa Bay was a clear indication that the Bucs are going for it.  They were already on the way, then after they got Brady, they added pieces to compliment their new QB.  Suddenly the Bucs are relevant again, and the whole division is going to be better because of it.

Tampa Bay certainly looks like a playoff team, but that playoff berth will likely come in the form of a wild card.  Because the Saints are the class of the division.  In fact, I'd argue New Orleans is the best team in the NFC.  Thanks to some wacky plays late in playoff games, they've come up short the past few years.  Their goal is obvious, though: one more Super Bowl appearance for Drew Brees and Sean Payton.  Atlanta is capable of joining them in the playoffs, too, but the Falcons are the third-best team in the division.  And there will almost certainly be some growing pains as Carolina adjusts to a new head coach and a new system.  Can Matt Rhule's system that was so successful at Baylor translate to the NFL?  Or will he be another Chip Kelly?

West: Seahawks (11-5), 49ers (10-6), Rams (9-7), Cardinals (6-10)
If you're looking for a more competitive division than the NFC West, you're not gonna find one.  In fact, it wouldn't be a stretch to see all four teams finishing .500 or better.  There are three legitimate playoff contenders, all of whom are capable of winning the division, and Arizona probably would be if they were in any other division.  Instead, the Cardinals will settle for being the best last-place team in football.

But which of the other three is the division favorite?  I've gotta go with Seattle.  The Seahawks have been a consistent playoff team ever since Pete Carroll and Russell Wilson arrived.  Don't expect that to change this year.  San Francisco, of course, is coming off a Super Bowl season.  I think the 49ers overachieved mightily in 2019, though, so I'm curious to see how they back it up.  And I fully expect a bounce back from the Rams after their disappointing 2019 campaign (that still would've resulted in a playoff spot had the extra wild card been in place).  They've got a new home and would love to christen it with a wild card berth.

Division Winners: 1-Saints (South), 2-Cowboys (East), 3-Seahawks (West), 4-Packers (North)
Wild Cards: 49ers, Buccaneers, Rams
Expect a dogfight both for seeding among the division winners and for the wild card berths.  In fact, I've got the Eagles finishing with the same record as both the Bucs and Rams (with LA's win over Philly in Week 2 giving the Rams the final spot), with Minnesota just one game back.  So, yeah, it'll be that close.

With so many good teams in the NFC, those playoffs will be a battle.  I think New Orleans and Dallas are the two best teams, so I'm making that my call for the NFC Championship Game matchup.  And, after so many near misses, the Saints get back to the Super Bowl 11 years after their last appearance.  This one won't end as well, though.  They lose to the Chiefs, who become the first reigning Super Bowl champion to defend its title since the Patriots 15 years ago.