Autumn In Paris

I'm still amazed at how well the US Open went.  They weren't just able to pull it off, they pulled it off perfectly!  The tournament went off without a hitch, and the tennis was better than I expected.  Sure, it would've been better if fans were there, but there was no shortage of intensity without them.  Best of all, it didn't feel watered-down at all, which was a concern for some heading in.

Now we move on to the rescheduled French Open, which will be vastly different.  They'll have fans in attendance.  The number has gradually been reduced.  It was originally going to be 11,500 a day, then 5,000, and now it's been reduced further to 1,000 per day.  The prospect of having fans is both exciting and scary for the players, but they just pulled off the Tour de France successfully, so we'll see how it goes.

This French Open will be vastly different for a number of other reasons, too.  The biggest change, of course, is the time of year in which it's being played.  Instead of late spring, it's being played in early autumn.  That means cooler temperatures and, perhaps more importantly, less light.  Although, that's less of an issue than it would've been in years past, since they'll have lights on four courts for the first time, and the retractable roof on Court Phillipe Chatrier (the last Grand Slam center court to get one) also debuts this year.

The other thing with the timing is that it completely changed the players' schedules.  The French Open traditionally marks the end of the European clay court season that lasts most of the Spring.  This year, they had a grand total of one clay court tune-up after the US Open.  For those who played the US Open, I'm curious to see how they transition from the hardcourts to the clay.

Perhaps not surprisingly, a number of European-based players who decided not to travel to New York for the US Open will be in Paris.  The reasons varied.  Some of them were questionable, some were virus-related (which is understandable).  It also went the other way (US Open champion Naomi Osaka, for example, decided not to play the French Open), but, for the most part, the French Open fields will have more of the top names than the US Open did.

One of those top players who didn't play in New York but is miraculously ready to go for the French is Rafael Nadal.  Is anybody surprised by this news?  Clay Boy can make history here.  If he wins again it would be his 20th Grand Slam title, tying Roger Federer's all-time record.  It would also be the 13th Roland Garros crown for the New England Patriots of tennis.

While he's the obvious favorite, Rafa's annual French Open championship isn't preordained, though.  As I mentioned earlier, this'll be the first time he's playing the tournament in September/October instead of May/June (the tournament organizers evidently consulted him before postponing and rescheduling).  More importantly, though, his decision not to play the US Open, coupled with Djokovic's DQ, opened the door for a new Grand Slam champion.  And Dominic Thiem was already widely considered the second-best clay court player in the world before he won the US Open.

Then there's that Djokovic guy, who's creeping up on the all-time Grand Slam record himself.  He's actually the last guy to beat Nadal here--in the 2015 quarterfinals.  Djokovic, of course, had his undefeated 2020 record spoiled with his shocking fourth round default at the US Open.  While what happened obviously can't be changed, I think it's a good thing that there's another Grand Slam so soon after that unfortunate incident.  Djokovic was immediately able to turn the page, return to Europe, and get ready for the French Open.  And I think we may end up seeing some of his best tennis as a result.

And let's not forget Thiem, the two-time Roland Garros finalist who now has a Grand Slam title on his resume.  That's an exclusive club that the Big Three have been reluctant to let anyone else join.  Now that he's broken through, does he have a chance of finally knocking off Nadal on the slow, red stuff?

After so many top women were absent from the US Open (Naomi and Vika were so good that it didn't matter they weren't there, those two would've been in the final anyway), most of them ARE in the field here--with one notable exception.  World No. 1 and defending champion Ashleigh Barty has decided not to travel out of Australia during the pandemic.  Even without her, this field is loaded, though.

Serena Williams is still sitting on 23, one shy of tying Margaret Court for the all-time women's record.  I don't see her making it 24 here.  Clay has always been her weakest surface, and she reached the semifinals of the US Open.  With all those matches on her body, plus the travel, I'm not sure how much she'll have left for the clay court specialists who've been in Europe this whole time.

Those players include top-seeded Simona Halep, the 2018 champ and 2017 finalist.  Halep can regain the No. 1 ranking if she wins, and she enters as the pre-tournament favorite.  With good reason.  I'm just not sure whether not playing the US Open (and thus not getting the match play) was a good thing or a bad thing.

On the bottom half of the women's draw, most of the higher seeds did play the US Open, although not with much success.  They'll all be looking to rebound, but really only Garbine Muguruza (the 2016 champion) has the clay court pedigree.  This is Sofia Kenin's first French Open since her Grand Slam breakthrough, though, so I'm curious to see how well she does.  And I'm still waiting on Karolina Pliskova, who lost in the second round of the US Open as the No. 1 seed.

Call me crazy, but I think this might finally be the time for Pliskova.  I'll probably crash and burn with this pick, but I just have a feeling.  I don't know why.  But I see her beating Angie Kerber in quarters, Muguruza in the semis, and Elina Svitolina (who beats Halep in the other semi) for her first Grand Slam title.

If we've learned anything over the past 16 years, it's that picking against Rafael Nadal at the French Open is a fool's errand.  Thiem and Djokovic won't make it easy for him, but taking three sets from him at Roland Garros is easier said than done.  After all, the guy has only lost twice in his entire French Open career.  So, as much as it pains me to say it, I think he joins Roger at the top of the all-time men's Grand Slam list (silver lining, by skipping the US Open, it made it so that he can't break the record).

So the stage is set for a French Open that will be unlike any other.  It's in the fall for the first time.  It's the final Grand Slam of the year for the first time.  It has a roof and lights for the first time.  But, as they say, the more things change, the more they stay the same.  So don't expect the result to be any different.  At least on the men's side.