Just like the NL East, the NL Central is wide open. Just like the NL East, you can take the last place team (Pittsburgh), put the other four in a hat, pull them out, and that could easily be your final standings. The differences between them are that subtle.
Unlike the NL East, however, the NL Central is a haven of mediocrity. In the NL East, four good teams will be battling for the division title. In the NL Central, it's four teams that are definitely flawed. Which means we've likely got the makings of a very competitive race. Especially since none of them have to play the Dodgers or any of the NL East teams. They're only facing the two worst divisions in baseball.
I think the universal DH this season will have a big impact on the NL Central, too. Cincinnati went out, spent a lot of money, and added about 15 hitters. They weren't all going to get at-bats. Now that's going to be a lot easier. Likewise, Ryan Braun was on his way to becoming a part-time player/pinch hitter in Milwaukee. Now he can DH. Same thing with Matt Carpenter. Same with Kyle Schwarber, who, let's face it, was basically already a DH anyway.
With all that being said, though, the Cardinals always somehow find a way. Last year, it was St. Louis who won the division, then they went and beat Atlanta in the playoffs. And how did the Cardinals respond to the spending sprees by their division rivals? By not doing a damn thing! Which probably means some dude you've never heard of will emerge in September and lead them to another division title.
1. St. Louis Cardinals: The Cardinals are like the National League version of the A's. When you expect them to be good, they aren't. When you don't, they randomly make the playoffs. That was certainly the case last season, a lot of which was due to the emergence of Jack Flaherty. Flaherty and Dakota Hudson combined to win 27 games in 2019. If they can put up similar numbers and the Cardinals get even representative efforts from veterans Miles Mikolas and Adam Wainwright, that takes a lot of pressure off their bullpen. And their offense.
While unlikely, this could be Yadi Molina's final season before he gets his statue outside Busch Stadium and plaque in Cooperstown (Yadi is only 37 hits from 2,000, so that's one milestone that actually can still happen this year!). He's no longer the focal point of the offense, but he's still the engine that makes this team go. Ditto with Matt Carpenter, who may not completely enjoy DHing, but he's a calming veteran presence and a bat you want in the lineup. And part of the reason St. Louis didn't do anything in the offseason is because that lineup was already plenty good enough to win the NL Central.
Projected Lineup: Dexter Fowler-RF, Matt Carpenter-DH, Paul Goldschmidt-1B, Paul DeJong-SS, Tommy Edman-3B, Harrison Bader-CF, Tyler O'Neill-LF, Yadier Molina-C, Kolten Wong-2B
Projected Rotation: Jack Flaherty, Dakota Hudson, Miles Mikolas, Adam Wainwright, Kwang Hyun Kim
Closer: Andrew Miller
Projected Record: 34-26
2. Chicago Cubs: Will there be one last run on the North Side before the Cubs officially close the book on the Bryant/Rizzo/Baez Era? Of course, they got their title, which will tide their fans over for a while. But the Cubs could've been so much more! They could've been a dynasty! Instead, they followed the disappointment of their Wild Card Game loss in 2018 with a terrible 2019 season that got manager Joe Maddon pushed out the door. Replacing him is first-time manager David Ross, a backup catcher on that 2016 championship team. (And with Maddon gone and a DH, they won't annoy me by batting their pitcher eighth in every game this season!)
It's unfair to pin it all on Maddon, but we'll see how much of a difference the manager can make. Because this is a good team and if Ross isn't in over his head, they're fully capable of rebounding. In fact, talent-wise, they're still the best team in the division. But, again, they need to play like it. Getting Schwarber out of left field will certainly help, too, as it'll allow them to play both Ian Happ and Albert Almora (and get a non-fielder off the field!). Although, I wouldn't be surprised if Victor Caratini, their backup catcher, ends up DHing a lot.
Projected Lineup: Ian Happ-CF, Kris Bryant-3B, Javier Baez-SS, Anthony Rizzo-1B, Willson Contreras-C, Kyle Schwarber-DH, Jason Heyward-RF, Nico Hoerner-2B, Albert Almora Jr.-LF
Projected Rotation: Jon Lester, Yu Darvish, Kyle Hendricks, Jose Quintana, Tyler Chatwood
Closer: Craig Kimbrel
Projected Record: 32-28 (Wild Card)
3. Cincinnati Reds: Where did the Reds suddenly find all this money? Cincinnati hasn't had a winning record since 2013, yet loaded up in free agency for an all-out run at 2020. And who knows? With the shortened season, it might pay off. Because I can see them getting hot for a few weeks and riding it. In a 162-game season, I think they would've been exposed. But in 60 games, it's possible.
Cincinnati was almost too aggressive, getting more players than they had positions for. So the Reds are one team that will take full advantage of having an extra bat in the lineup every game. That will likely help their pitching staff, too. And that pitching staff will be the key to their success. Because we know they're gonna score runs. That's always been the case. The problem was they didn't have solid enough pitching and would lose 7-5. Can they flip those into 6-4 victories? If they can, their playoff drought might end. But they're still missing a couple pieces, so they look to be a year away. Finishing .500, however, is a reasonable goal.
Projected Lineup: Nick Senzel-CF, Joey Votto-1B, Eugenio Suarez-3B, Nick Castellanos-DH, Mike Moustakas-2B, Jesse Winkler-LF, Shogo Akiyama-RF, Freddy Galvis-SS, Tucker Barnhardt-C
Projected Rotation: Luis Castillo, Sonny Gray, Trevor Bauer, Anthony DeSclafini, Wade Miley
Closer: Raisel Iglesias
Projected Record: 31-29
4. Milwaukee Brewers: Craig Counsell has had his biggest weapon taken away from him. His mastery of the September 40-man rosters is a big reason why the Brewers have made back-to-back playoff appearances. Of course, having Christian Yelich and Josh Hader hasn't hurt, either, but the point remains. The Brewers won't have all of those extra guys at their disposal this year, which will make the September run a little more challenging.
However, to discount the Brewers with the ridiculous amount of talent on this roster would just be idiotic. They already had Yelich and Lorenzo Cain in the outfield, then added Avisail Garcia to it, which moved Braun to first base, but only as the right-handed half of a platoon with Justin Smoak. And we all know about the Brewers' bullpen. The weakness of this team is probably the starting rotation, which puts a lot of pressure on Brandon Woodruff. And the rotation is the reason why I can't see Milwaukee making a return trip to the postseason. Although, with a bullpen that good, the starters might only need to go five because they know Yelich and Co. will score plenty of runs.
Projected Lineup: Lorenzo Cain-CF, Keston Hiura-2B, Christian Yelich-LF, Avisail Garcia-RF, Ryan Braun-DH, Justin Smoak-1B, Eric Sogard-3B, Orlando Arcia-SS, Omar Narvaez-C
Projected Rotation: Brandon Woodruff, Adrian Hauser, Brett Anderson, Josh Lindblom, Brent Suter
Closer: Josh Hader
Projected Record: 29-31
5. Pittsburgh Pirates: When they announced the universal DH for this season and people started going through potential in-house options for the Pirates, everybody was stumped. Simply put, Pittsburgh barely has eight Major League hitters to make a lineup. Now you want them to make one with nine? Don't get me wrong. They're not in Marlins/Orioles/Tigers territory. And things aren't as bad as they were a few years ago. But look for the Pirates' best players to not be wearing Pittsburgh uniforms at season's end.
Because there actually are some worthwhile pieces here beyond just Josh Bell and Chris Archer. Joe Musgrove "won" a ring in Houston and could definitely help a team looking for a starter. And you know there'll be plenty of interest in closer Keone Kela. Problem is, the Pirates don't have enough talent to keep pace with the other four teams in this division. Besides Bell and maybe Gregory Polanco, would any of their regulars start on another Major League team? And with those four closely matched and duking at the top, that leaves last place for the Pirates. It would be very surprising if it didn't.
Projected Lineup: Jarrod Dyson-CF, Kevin Newman-SS, Josh Bell-1B, Gregory Polanco-RF, Bryan Reynolds-LF, Adam Frazier-2B, Colin Moran-3B, Guillermo Heredia-DH, Jacob Stallings-C
Projected Rotation: Chris Archer, Joe Musgrove, Trevor Williams, Mitch Keller, Derek Holland
Closer: Keone Kela
Projected Record: 27-33
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