From top to bottom, the AL Central might be the weakest division in baseball. Mainly because the bottom two teams--Detroit and Kansas City--are really bad. If this season was going to be the normal length, we might be looking at an 85-86 win division champion. As it is, the short season and regionalized schedule will help those top three teams, any of whom is capable of winning the division.
Don't get me wrong. The Twins are still the best of the five teams. They set a Major League record for home runs last season and made their lineup even deeper with the addition of Josh Donaldson. Cleveland's been trending downward and appears to be seriously thinking about trading Francisco Lindor, but they also have the strongest pitching in the division. And the White Sox have all the makings of being a spoiler.
So, even though it's not the strongest division, the AL Central still looks to be reasonably competitive at the top. That, unfortunately, is probably the only path to the postseason for those three teams, though. The Rays/Yankees non-AL East winner and the two teams in the West figure to be better positioned for the wild cards, but in a short season, you never know. And I have a feeling someone in the AL Central is gonna get off to a good start.
At the very least, we won't need to worry about 31-29 or 30-30 being good enough to win the division. Playing 20 games against the Tigers and Royals and another handful against the Pirates will help with that. Don't expect them to be starting the Division Series at home, though.
1. Minnesota Twins: The Twins won 101 games last season and, somewhat surprisingly, ran away with the division title. They did that almost entirely on the strength of the insane amount of home runs they hit. Which makes me wonder if that's actually sustainable or if last season was a fluke. They're likely going to hit a ridiculous number of homers again (they'll easily get over 100), but can they rely on winning games 7-5?
That'll really be up to their pitching staff. It's good, not great, which is why I don't want to say the Twins are the overwhelming favorites. Adding Kenta Maeda, frankly, doesn't make that much of a difference. And their bullpen, like their rotation, is good, not great. Good enough to win the division for the second straight year? Perhaps. Good enough to finally get out of the Division Series? Probably not.
Projected Lineup: Byron Buxton-CF, Mitch Garver-C, Josh Donaldson-3B, Nelson Cruz-DH, Eddie Rosario-LF, Miguel Sano-1B, Max Kepler-RF, Jorge Polanco-SS, Luis Arraez-2B
Projected Rotation: Jose Berrios, Jake Odorizzi, Kenta Maeda, Homer Bailey, Devin Smeltzer
Closer: Taylor Rogers
Projected Record: 34-26
2. Cleveland Indians: Will they or won't they? If the Indians are still in the mix at the trade deadline in mid-August, they'll probably try to make one last run before losing Lindor as a free agent. If they're not, it's very possible that they'll finally trade their franchise player after an offseason full of speculation. So, the first half of the season will be perhaps more important for the Indians than any other team.
And really, it'll be the pitching staff that decides whether Lindor ends the season in Cleveland or not. Because, even after trading Corey Kluber to Texas, the Indians have pitching in spades. Which is why I think they have a legitimate chance of knocking off Minnesota in the division race. The Indians have a better rotation, their bullpen is slightly better, and their lineup, while not as good as the Twins', can certainly hold its own. And don't forget, the Indians are better than at least six of the nine teams they'll be facing this season. That could make a huge difference, too. Whether or not they make the playoffs, they'll be in it until the end. Which means Lindor ends the season in an Indians uniform.
Projected Lineup: Oscar Mercado-CF, Jose Ramirez-3B, Francisco Lindor-SS, Carlos Santana-1B, Franmil Reyes-RF, Domingo Santana-DH, Jordan Luplow-LF, Roberto Perez-C, Cesar Hernandez-2B
Projected Rotation: Mike Clevinger, Shane Bieber, Carlos Carrasco, Adam Plutko, Jefry Rodriguez
Closer: Brad Hand
Projected Record: 31-29
3. Chicago White Sox: Every year there's that one team that's super active in free agency and it gets their fan base all excited about the upcoming season. It either works and they make a playoff run or it doesn't and everyone is left disappointed. Last year, that team was the Phillies. This year, it's the White Sox. They saw that this division is there for the taking, and they went all-in to try and grab it. And it just might pay off, too.
If there was one team I thought was going to get out to a fast start, it was this one. While I'm not sure if that would've been sustainable over 162 games, they don't have to worry about it. A 12-3/11-4 start would cover a quarter of the season and put them in a very good position the rest of the way. This White Sox team is plenty capable of doing that, too. Even if they don't, they're gonna give the Twins and Indians all they can handle. Make no mistake, though. Whether they're relevant in 2020 or not, the White Sox are going to be the team to beat in the AL Central in 2021 and beyond.
Projected Lineup: Tim Anderson-SS, Yoan Moncada-3B, Jose Abreu-1B, Yasmani Grandal-C, Edwin Encarnacion-DH, Luis Robert-CF, Nomar Mazara-RF, Eloy Jimenez-LF, Leury Garcia-2B
Projected Rotation: Lucas Giolito, Dallas Keuchel, Gio Gonzalez, Dylan Cease, Reynaldo Lopez
Closer: Alex Colome
Projected Record: 30-30
4. Kansas City Royals: It was just five years ago that the Kansas City Royals won the World Series. Seems like an eternity, doesn't it? (In fairness, the last four months have felt like an eternity, so anything before that might as well have been the 20th Century!) Only two key players from that team remain (Salvador Perez and Alex Gordon), as the Royals have officially entered another rebuild. The cupboard's not completely bare, though, and they're still significantly better than the Tigers.
Kansas City has the potential to be that type of team no one will want to play. They won't be good enough to be competitive, but they'll be just good enough to annoy one of the good teams. How annoying? is the question, and which team will they annoy? So, basically, the Royals will be the AL Central's answer to the Orioles and Marlins. They're not going to win the division, but they'll definitely have a say in who does. Because they're gonna go 6-4 against one of the top teams and 3-7 against another, and those three games could end up making the difference in what figures to be a tight race on top.
Projected Lineup: Whit Merrifield-CF, Adalberto Mondesi-SS, Jorge Soler-DH, Ryan O'Hearn-1B, Hunter Dozier-RF, Maikel Franco-3B, Alex Gordon-LF, Salvador Perez-C, Nicky Lopez-2B
Projected Rotation: Brad Keller, Danny Duffy, Jakob Junis, Mike Montgomery, Jorge Lopez
Closer: Ian Kennedy
Projected Record: 27-33
5. Detroit Tigers: Thanks to the pandemic and the season's delay, Miguel Cabrera's 3,000th hit and 500th home run will have to wait until next season (if not 2022). Which is probably a good thing, since no fans would be there to see it this year anyway. Yeah, that's really about all I've got on the Tigers. They aren't good and they know it. The only thing they'll be battling for is their second consecutive No. 1 pick in the draft (speaking of which, Spencer Torkelson has apparently been raking at camp, is it possible we'll see him this season?).
Detroit is probably slightly better than Baltimore, so I give the Orioles a slight edge in the race for the No. 1 pick in 2021. The Tigers do have some established veterans who are capable of at least keeping them competitive offensively. Problem is all of those established veterans are past their prime. None would still be considered a "star" (and that includes their future Hall of Famer, who has two maybe three years left, tops). This year is going to be a long one in Detroit. And as they drift further and further away from relevance, it leaves you shaking your head wondering how the Tigers were so good for so long, yet only won one pennant and zero World Series games. It'll be a while until they have the chance to win another.
Projected Lineup: Jacoby Jones-CF, Niko Goodrum-SS, Jeimer Candelario-3B, C.J. Cron-1B, Christin Stewart-LF, Miguel Cabrera-DH, Jonathan Schoop-2B, Cameron Maybin-RF, Austin Romine-C
Projected Rotation: Matthew Boyd, Jordan Zimmermann, Spencer Turnbull, Daniel Norris, Michael Fulmer
Closer: Joe Jimenez
Projected Record: 25-35
No comments:
Post a Comment