It's been three and a half long months! But there's finally light at the end of the tunnel! Opening Day 2.0 is on the horizon! And that means, it's finally time for my annual baseball preview. We'll start today with the AL East and run through all six divisions leading into the season opener between the Yankees and Nationals on July 23.
And this season is going to be one of the toughest to project. Because things are a lot different now than they would've been had they started on time. Players who were expected to miss significant time will be ready to go for the 60-game sprint, which changes the whole dynamic entirely. Two weeks could make or break the season, so you'd better not get off to a bad start!
The schedule could end up making a huge difference, too. Since you're only playing your own division and the corresponding interleague division, your opponents are going to matter. And that's going to make it tough for Boston or Toronto, who would otherwise be outside playoff contenders in a 162-game season. They have to play 10 games each against the Yankees and Rays, as well as four good NL East teams. Just reaching .500 in the shortened season will be an achievement in the shortened season.
Regardless of how long the season is, the Yankees and Rays were going to be the favorites in the AL East, if not the entire American League. The division should be a battle between the two of them, although the other three will have a big impact on which one actually does. Whoever has the better record in the 30 games against Boston, Toronto and Baltimore should be the No. 1 seed in the AL. The other will be hosting the Wild Card Game, which neither of them wants.
1. New York Yankees: No team benefited more from the delay than the Yankees. Aaron Judge, Aaron Hicks, Giancarlo Stanton and James Paxton weren't going to be available on the original Opening Day. Now they are. Although, now they're dealing with a different group of players being out, as DJ LeMahieu and Aroldis Chapman both have COVID and Masahiro Tanaka was hit by a Stanton line drive during an intrasquad game.
As they proved last year, though, the Yankees' depth is unmatched. Throw in the fact that they now have a legit No. 1 starter in Gerrit Cole, and it isn't crazy to think they could win 40 games. As it is, I think they'll fall a bit short of that target. Either way, they're the clear favorites. And their schedule over the final three weeks is so soft that if they have any sort of a cushion after 40 games, it's gonna be very tough for anybody to catch them.
Projected Lineup: Brett Gardner-LF, Aaron Judge-RF, Giancarlo Stanton-DH, Gleyber Torres-SS, Gary Sanchez-C, Luke Voit-1B, Aaron Hicks-CF, Gio Urshela-3B, Tyler Wade-2B
Projected Rotation: Gerrit Cole, James Paxton, Masahiro Tanaka, J.A. Happ, Jordan Montgomery
Closer: Zack Britton
Projected Record: 36-24
2. Tampa Bay Rays: For a team that was all about the "opener" two years ago, the Rays sure have built themselves a formidable starting rotation (further proof that they did it because of a lack of depth more than anything else). And that rotation should be what leads Tampa Bay back to the playoffs. They also seem to be the only team capable of challenging the Yankees for division supremacy. It isn't even that crazy to think they could win the AL East if things break their way.
However, there's one major difference between the two. Tampa Bay's lineup is nowhere near as good as the Yankees'. Which is why the Rays are probably looking at a wild card. Make no mistake, though. This is clearly the second-best team in the AL East. And with that pitching staff, they're not gonna need to outscore teams. Expect a lot of 3-1 and 4-2 wins. Will it be enough to top the Yankees? Probably not. Will it be enough to make the playoffs? Most likely.
Projected Lineup: Kevin Keirmaier-CF, Brandon Lowe-2B, Austin Meadows-RF, Jose Martinez-DH, Hunter Renfroe-LF, Yandy Diaz-3B, Ji-Man Choi-1B, Willy Adames-SS, Mike Zunino-C
Projected Rotation: Blake Snell, Charlie Morton, Tyler Glasnow, Yonny Chirinos, Ryan Yarbrough
Closer: Diego Castillo
Projected Record: 34-26 (Wild Card)
3. Boston Red Sox: Let's get one thing straight about the Red Sox. They're not gonna challenge the Yankees and Rays this season. They know this. But they haven't slipped into Orioles/Marlins/Tigers territory either. So, for all the dire projections talking about how "bad" Boston is this season, it's simply not true. The Red Sox might've traded Mookie Betts, the second-best player in the game, but they still have a formidable lineup that's going to keep them in games night after night. I even think they have the chance to play spoiler.
Boston's best chance for making the postseason went away when MLB opted not to expand the playoff field this season, though. Their pitching simply isn't good enough. Their pitching wasn't good enough last season, when they had Chris Sale and David Price. This year, the rotation is anchored by Eduardo Rodriguez and Nathan Eovaldi. Needless to say, that's more than a bit of a downgrade. And don't get me started on their bullpen! Brandon Workman's not exactly what you'd call an "A-list" closer. I'll just leave it at that.
Projected Lineup: Jackie Bradley Jr.-CF, Andrew Benintendi-LF, Xander Bogaerts-SS, J.D. Martinez-DH, Rafael Devers-3B, Alex Verdugo-RF, Mitch Moreland-1B, Christian Vazquez-C, Jose Peraza-2B
Projected Rotation: Eduardo Rodriguez, Nathan Eovaldi, Martin Perez, Ryan Weber, Collin McHugh
Closer: Brandon Workman
Projected Record: 29-31
4. Toronto Blue Jays: Like the Red Sox, the Blue Jays saw their best hopes of making the postseason disappear when the playoff field wasn't expanded. And their best chance of being a spoiler went away when the season shrank by 100 games. Over 162 games, Toronto's young lineup would've been a nightmare to face. Over 60, it's far less scary.
There's also the issue of where the Blue Jays are going to play. They still aren't sure whether they'll be able to play in Toronto or not. Their Spring Training complex in Florida is probably out for obvious reasons, so it seems very possible they'll be playing at least some of their games at their Triple A facility in Buffalo (which is a fine venue). Either way, they're probably a season or two away from being true contenders in the AL East. I absolutely love the fact that they've already moved Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to first base, too. That's going to make them better across the board.
Projected Lineup: Bo Bichette-SS, Cavan Biggio-2B, Vladimir Guerrero Jr.-1B, Randal Grichuk-CF, Lourdes Gurriel Jr.-LF, Rowdy Tellez-DH, Teoscar Hernandez-RF, Brandon Drury-3B, Danny Jansen-C
Projected Rotation: Hyun-Jin Ryu, Tanner Roark, Matt Shoemaker, Chase Anderson, Shun Yamaguchi
Closer: Ken Giles
Projected Record: 27-33
5. Baltimore Orioles: At least they can't lose 100 games this year! Although, they might not've even in a full season. Because the Orioles are definitely getting better. They're still the fifth-best team in the AL East by a significant margin. But they have a chance of being more competitive this season. Or, I should say, they had a chance. Because no team was hurt by the regional scheduling more than the Orioles, who along with the Marlins will be the opponent each of the other eight looks to beat up on.
I'm actually curious about this season's Orioles, too. Will Adley Rutschmann, last year's No. 1 pick, make his Major League debut? I think it's likely he will, if for no other reason than the fact that he won't see any live game action until April if they don't. So, the cancellation of the Minor League season combined with Baltimore likely being out of the race will result in Rutschmann playing for the Orioles at some point in September. There's no reason for him not to. So they might as well do what the Blue Jays did last year and take a look at their younger guys in game conditions, just to see what they have.
Projected Lineup: Hanser Alberto-2B, Jose Iglesias-SS, Trey Mancini-RF, Renato Nunez-DH, Rio Ruiz-3B, Anthony Santander-LF, Austin Hays-CF, Chris Davis-1B, Pedro Severino-C
Projected Rotation: John Means, Alex Cobb, Asher Wojciechowski, Wade LeBlanc, Tommy Milone
Closer: Mychal Givens
Projected Record: 22-38
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