Slowly but surely, the sports world is getting back to normal. Yes, it's without fans in "hub cities," but the NHL is set to resume with its first-ever 24-team Stanley Cup tournament. And I've gotta say, I've been impressed by what I've seen so far. The arenas are set up beautifully and the teams look less rusty than I thought. Most importantly, we're gonna have wall-to-wall hockey for a few weeks as they whittle down the field.
After the first exhibition games, there were some complaints about the ice conditions in Toronto. But that's to be expected when you're playing hockey in August. Maintaining the ice will be key, especially during those noon games, but I don't think is gonna end up being too much of a worry once the games get underway.
I also have to say that I really like some of the things they're doing on the broadcasts. I'm not 100 percent sure, but it looks like the main camera is closer to the ice. I think it's in the concourse instead of the press box. That's obviously something they can only get away with because there are no fans, but it makes it seem a lot more intimate. You almost forget it's an empty arena. And the hockey version of the NFL SkyCam is awesome! I hope that thing sticks around!
Anyway, what I thought when they announced the format for the restart and what I still think now after seeing at least some of most of the exhibition games, it really is anybody's tournament. They've all had four months off and now immediately have to go into playoff mode, all while dealing with all of those foreign outside factors (living in a bubble, playing in an empty arena, playing in the summer). Normally it comes down to the team with the hottest goalie, but I think it could come down to who best handles the unusual situation that ultimately ends up lifting the Cup.
Eastern Conference Seeding Games: Boston won the President's Trophy, but, I don't know, there's something about the Bruins that I'm just not feeling. I think they'll end up dropping to the 3-seed after the round robin. The Capitals look like they didn't miss a beat, so I've gotta make them the team to beat in the East. And Tampa Bay simply has too much fire power. I can even see the Flyers beating the Bruins during the round robin, but I'll keep Boston at 3 and Philadelphia at 4.
Penguins vs. Canadiens: Frankly, Pittsburgh looked like the better team in the Flyers-Penguins exhibition game. And they'll roll right over Montreal. The Canadiens are probably the weakest of the 24 teams that got to continue the season. I don't anticipate this series being close. Penguins in three.
Hurricanes vs. Rangers: This series, on the other hand, is perhaps the most competitive of the eight in the first round (maybe Calgary-Winnipeg, maybe). Part of the reason for that is the fact that the Rangers very realistically can win it. It would surprise no one if they did. They were on a roll when the regular season ended and finished only two points behind Carolina, which was the difference between No. 6 and No. 11, showing just how tight the Eastern Conference standings were at the end. Rangers in five.
Islanders vs. Panthers: It's weird. The Panthers were right there in that mix and actually ended up with a higher seed than the Rangers because of points percentage, but I rank Florida closer to Montreal than the other Eastern Conference playoff teams. And I see them having very little chance of beating the Islanders in a best-of-five. Islanders in four.
Maple Leafs vs. Blue Jackets: Outside of Rangers-Hurricanes, this is the Eastern Conference series I'm looking forward to the most. Because Toronto and Columbus are very evenly matched (hence the 8 vs. 9 matchup). However, the Maple Leafs are one of only two teams in the NHL that has the luxury of playing at home, and I think that'll make a huge difference. For all the unfamiliar everyone will have to deal with, they'll get to use their own locker room and, even though they won't have a home crowd to cheer them on, will have home ice advantage for the entire series. Which could end up being a huge factor. Maple Leafs in four.
Western Conference Seeding Games: Unlike their 2019 Stanley Cup Final opponent, the St. Louis Blues do look like the no-doubt-about-it best team in the West. In fact, I'd even be willing to tab the Blues as the overall favorite. The battle for the No. 2 seed out West will be interesting, though. Because you don't want to be No. 4 and have to deal with Edmonton. For arugment's sake, I'll just rank them 2-Golden Knights, 3-Avalanche, 4-Stars, but, frankly, the second-best team in the West might be the Oilers.
Oilers vs. Blackhawks: As if the Oilers didn't already have the advantage against Chicago, that edge only grew when they found out that they'll be playing all of their playoff games on home ice. Every! Single! One! They'll make quick work of the Blackhawks, then beat whoever ends up as the No. 4 seed. Oilers in three.
Predators vs. Coyotes: Arizona being in the playoffs is just weird to think about. Alas, the Coyotes' postseason run will likely be a short one. Nashville has the longest active playoff streak in the Western Conference (six years and counting), and it's not crazy to think the Predators have a deep run in them. Arizona may get a game. It would be great if they do. But there's no way they're getting three. Predators in four.
Canucks vs. Wild: Finally, we get to a Western Conference series that has a chance of being competitive! And this one could be all about which team gets hotter sooner. I can see a back-and-forth series that ends up going five, but I can also see each of them winning in three. Since Minnesota has the better goalie in Devan Dubnyk (as well as Mats Zuccarello), I'll give them the nod in the slight upset. Wild in four.
Flames vs. Jets: Again, you could probably flip a coin here. On paper, Calgary is probably the better team, but only slightly. Winnipeg has had that recent playoff success, though, so we'll see if that can carry them. However, even though the games are being played in Edmonton, not Calgary, it's still Alberta, so there's gotta be a certain comfort level for the Flames. Although, I'm sure it'll also be weird to play in Rogers Place and not have thousands of Oilers fans booing them from the second they take the ice to the second they leave it. Nevertheless, I'm taking Calgary in a tight series. Flames in five.
Not having to play the extra round is going to be such a huge advantage for the top four seeds in each conference. While everybody else has to get into playoff mode right away, they have the three round robin games to get into playoff mode before things really amp up. Yes, those games are still important, but it's a different kind of important. Other than Edmonton, I don't see any of the teams playing in the Qualifiers making a deep playoff run (which is usually the trademark of the Stanley Cup Playoffs).
The Stanley Cup Playoffs are always crazy. Now you throw in all of these other factors, and this year's edition could be even crazier. The teams that managed their unplanned four-month break better will be the ones that have the advantage. But in the end, I think the last two champions (Washington and St. Louis) will survive the madness and duke it out for the Cup.
Friday, July 31, 2020
Tuesday, July 28, 2020
Don't Hit the Panic Button...Yet
Baseball returned this weekend, and it was glorious! It didn't matter that there were no fans in the stands (outside of cardboard cutouts) or that the broadcasts were being done remotely. People who've been craving the return of live sports got them back, bringing some sense of normalcy back to a world that has been turned completely upside down over the past several months.
The honeymoon period lasted a grand total of three days. On Monday, the very situation that many people feared became a reality when it was announced that the Miami Marlins had an outbreak within their team, resulting in the postponement of the Marlins' series against the Orioles. Since the Marlins had just finished a series against the Phillies, Philadelphia's series against the Yankees was also called off as a precaution.
That development has been described as a "worst-case scenario" by fans and critics alike. The term "It's over," was even tossed around, as if to imply there's no possible way for MLB to successfully complete the season amid the Marlins situation. However, while it's admittedly not good, it's way too early to think of this as a doomsday scenario. MLB certainly isn't. And they shouldn't. Because it is too early.
This wasn't a completely unexpected situation. MLB released its incredibly detailed "return to play" plan, which included the protocols for what should be done if there was an outbreak among an entire team. That includes the COVID-specific injured list and the 30-player taxi squad at each team's alternate site who could be called up to the Big League club at any moment should they be needed. The hope above all hopes was that these precautions would be enough for them to be able to continue the season with as little disruption as possible even if the virus took out an entire team. Which, of course, is exactly what happened.
However, it looks like things are isolated to the Marlins. Consider all of the other teams that they've been in contact with, either directly or indirectly, and you can see why there's no need to take the nuclear option.
They most likely contracted it during their trip to Atlanta for an exhibition game. The Braves have had a few cases, including losing both of their Opening Day catchers, but it so far hasn't been widespread among the team. Atlanta then traveled to face the Mets to open the season. The Mets have all tested negative. And, outside of one staff member, no one on the Phillies has tested positive, either. So there's no reason to think this goes beyond the Marlins clubhouse.
And, frankly, a lot of the blame here falls directly on the Marlins' shoulders. After the first handful of positives on Saturday, they evidently voted as a team to play the game on Sunday anyway. That obviously should not have happened. And that irresponsible, reckless decision only exacerbated the problem. Who knows how many more players were exposed because of that?
What this means, though, is that MLB needs to be much stricter on enforcement. Among the many pandemic-related policies in place this season, players aren't supposed to high-five or spit, among many other actions that have become second-nature. Yet on Opening Weekend, there was plenty of high-fiving and hugging, with nobody there telling them not to, so it seems unlikely there will be any sort of punishment coming their way.
It's a similar situation here. MLB finds itself in this position because the rule for positive tests only applies to individual players. The Marlins voted to play without those players anyway, which they were well within their rights to do, but knowingly put the Phillies in harm's way as a result. So maybe that's something they need to revisit. It shouldn't be left to the teams' discretion whether or not they play. MLB should make that decision for them, especially in a case like this.
As a result, MLB has created quite a headache for itself. It was already gonna be tough to play 60 games in 66 days. Now they have one team completely out of commission for a week, which obviously impacts the schedules of their opponents, as well. It seems virtually impossible for the Marlins to get all 60 games in. How will they handle that at the end of the season, especially if it has a bearing on the postseason (which would apply more to Miami's opponents than the Marlins themselves)?
Some people have criticized MLB for opting to have teams play at their home ballparks instead of utilizing a "bubble." This situation has only added fuel to their criticism. The argument is that traveling around the country and going home every night exposes them to more risk and, thus, increases the likelihood of this exact scenario. They may be right. But, again, you can't point to this as an example that the MLB plan was "wrong" either. There simply isn't enough evidence of that.
Don't forget that the "bubbles" aren't exactly impenetrable either. Nashville had its first game in the MLS Is Back Tournament postponed after several players tested positive, then was removed from the tournament entirely. Dallas was also withdrawn before the tournament even started. But two teams weren't enough to shut down the whole thing, and MLS simply proceeded with the remaining 24 clubs.
Unfortunately, Major League Baseball doesn't have that same option with the Marlins. They can't simply continue the season with 29 teams as if nothing had happened. That would wreak total havoc on a schedule that's already been completely upended! (Which I guess is another argument for the critics to use.)
There's one other important factor to keep in mind here, too. We're talking about one of 30 teams. There have been cases on pretty much every team, which was expected, but none of the other 29 has had a Marlins-sized issue (at least not yet, and hopefully not at all). Why should they suffer because of one teams' stupidity? Especially when 20 of them will have no interaction with the Marlins this season?
Postponing the Marlins-Orioles and Yankees-Phillies series, as well as the Marlins' weekend series against the Nationals, was the right decision. They didn't really have a choice, especially with the safety concerns and the necessary precautions they had take. And the Nationals were hesitant to travel to Miami (rightfully so), so it wouldn't have been right to ask them to under the circumstances. This also gives the Marlins some extra time to figure things out on their end before resuming the season.
Is this bad? Of course! Is this the exact situation Rob Manfred was hoping NOT to have to deal with, even though he knew he almost certainly would at some point? Absolutely. But to suggest MLB needs to take the nuclear option is premature. If anything, it's a reminder call that getting through this already unprecedented season is going to be extremely difficult. It served as a wake-up call for MLB and all 30 teams. Hopefully they all get the message.
The honeymoon period lasted a grand total of three days. On Monday, the very situation that many people feared became a reality when it was announced that the Miami Marlins had an outbreak within their team, resulting in the postponement of the Marlins' series against the Orioles. Since the Marlins had just finished a series against the Phillies, Philadelphia's series against the Yankees was also called off as a precaution.
That development has been described as a "worst-case scenario" by fans and critics alike. The term "It's over," was even tossed around, as if to imply there's no possible way for MLB to successfully complete the season amid the Marlins situation. However, while it's admittedly not good, it's way too early to think of this as a doomsday scenario. MLB certainly isn't. And they shouldn't. Because it is too early.
This wasn't a completely unexpected situation. MLB released its incredibly detailed "return to play" plan, which included the protocols for what should be done if there was an outbreak among an entire team. That includes the COVID-specific injured list and the 30-player taxi squad at each team's alternate site who could be called up to the Big League club at any moment should they be needed. The hope above all hopes was that these precautions would be enough for them to be able to continue the season with as little disruption as possible even if the virus took out an entire team. Which, of course, is exactly what happened.
However, it looks like things are isolated to the Marlins. Consider all of the other teams that they've been in contact with, either directly or indirectly, and you can see why there's no need to take the nuclear option.
They most likely contracted it during their trip to Atlanta for an exhibition game. The Braves have had a few cases, including losing both of their Opening Day catchers, but it so far hasn't been widespread among the team. Atlanta then traveled to face the Mets to open the season. The Mets have all tested negative. And, outside of one staff member, no one on the Phillies has tested positive, either. So there's no reason to think this goes beyond the Marlins clubhouse.
And, frankly, a lot of the blame here falls directly on the Marlins' shoulders. After the first handful of positives on Saturday, they evidently voted as a team to play the game on Sunday anyway. That obviously should not have happened. And that irresponsible, reckless decision only exacerbated the problem. Who knows how many more players were exposed because of that?
What this means, though, is that MLB needs to be much stricter on enforcement. Among the many pandemic-related policies in place this season, players aren't supposed to high-five or spit, among many other actions that have become second-nature. Yet on Opening Weekend, there was plenty of high-fiving and hugging, with nobody there telling them not to, so it seems unlikely there will be any sort of punishment coming their way.
It's a similar situation here. MLB finds itself in this position because the rule for positive tests only applies to individual players. The Marlins voted to play without those players anyway, which they were well within their rights to do, but knowingly put the Phillies in harm's way as a result. So maybe that's something they need to revisit. It shouldn't be left to the teams' discretion whether or not they play. MLB should make that decision for them, especially in a case like this.
As a result, MLB has created quite a headache for itself. It was already gonna be tough to play 60 games in 66 days. Now they have one team completely out of commission for a week, which obviously impacts the schedules of their opponents, as well. It seems virtually impossible for the Marlins to get all 60 games in. How will they handle that at the end of the season, especially if it has a bearing on the postseason (which would apply more to Miami's opponents than the Marlins themselves)?
Some people have criticized MLB for opting to have teams play at their home ballparks instead of utilizing a "bubble." This situation has only added fuel to their criticism. The argument is that traveling around the country and going home every night exposes them to more risk and, thus, increases the likelihood of this exact scenario. They may be right. But, again, you can't point to this as an example that the MLB plan was "wrong" either. There simply isn't enough evidence of that.
Don't forget that the "bubbles" aren't exactly impenetrable either. Nashville had its first game in the MLS Is Back Tournament postponed after several players tested positive, then was removed from the tournament entirely. Dallas was also withdrawn before the tournament even started. But two teams weren't enough to shut down the whole thing, and MLS simply proceeded with the remaining 24 clubs.
Unfortunately, Major League Baseball doesn't have that same option with the Marlins. They can't simply continue the season with 29 teams as if nothing had happened. That would wreak total havoc on a schedule that's already been completely upended! (Which I guess is another argument for the critics to use.)
There's one other important factor to keep in mind here, too. We're talking about one of 30 teams. There have been cases on pretty much every team, which was expected, but none of the other 29 has had a Marlins-sized issue (at least not yet, and hopefully not at all). Why should they suffer because of one teams' stupidity? Especially when 20 of them will have no interaction with the Marlins this season?
Postponing the Marlins-Orioles and Yankees-Phillies series, as well as the Marlins' weekend series against the Nationals, was the right decision. They didn't really have a choice, especially with the safety concerns and the necessary precautions they had take. And the Nationals were hesitant to travel to Miami (rightfully so), so it wouldn't have been right to ask them to under the circumstances. This also gives the Marlins some extra time to figure things out on their end before resuming the season.
Is this bad? Of course! Is this the exact situation Rob Manfred was hoping NOT to have to deal with, even though he knew he almost certainly would at some point? Absolutely. But to suggest MLB needs to take the nuclear option is premature. If anything, it's a reminder call that getting through this already unprecedented season is going to be extremely difficult. It served as a wake-up call for MLB and all 30 teams. Hopefully they all get the message.
Friday, July 24, 2020
My Favorite Olympic Openings
Today had been circled on my calendar for years. Today was supposed to be the Opening Ceremony of the Tokyo Olympics. Instead, our friendly global pandemic happened and we have to wait another year for the Olympics (if they're even able to happen then, which I think they will)! So, needless to say, even with baseball finally back, I'm gonna be feeling what 2020 has taken away from us a little bit more over the next two weeks.
Every Olympic Opening Ceremony is spectacular in its own unique way, and next year's celebration in Tokyo figures to be no different. IOC President Thomas Bach is keen on bringing the world together to show the global resolve in overcoming the virus, which is something I think we'll all need by then. They obviously won't be able to ignore the elephant in the room, and the organizers have promised to "scale down" the Olympics. What that means for the Opening Ceremony is unclear, but either way, it promises to be spectacular.
The Opening Ceremony has been a staple of every Olympics since the First Modern Games in 1896. However, it has changed dramatically over the years. Certain formal elements, such as the Parade of Nations, the Head of State officially opening the Games and the athlete's oath, have always been included. The Olympic flag debuted in 1920 and the torch relay in 1936. But the Opening Ceremony as we know it today wasn't a thing until 40 years ago.
It wasn't the 1980 Games in Moscow when the Russians wanted to show off their culture to the world that the artistic presentation became the featured portion of the Opening Ceremony. They did the formal stuff first, followed by the artistic portion. Four years later in LA, the order was reversed. Every Olympic host ever since has followed that same format, taking advantage of the biggest stage they'll ever have to showcase their country and city to a worldwide audience.
Tokyo is set to become the 10th Olympic Opening Ceremony to use the format established in LA. Which was the best? That's obviously a subjective question, and people have their own reasons for their personal favorites. Here's how I rank the previous nine:
9. Seoul 1988: My biggest problem here weren't entirely Seoul's fault. It was held at 10:00 in the morning so that NBC could broadcast it live. And there's something about the Olympic torch being lit in bright sunshine that makes it significantly less dramatic. There were other issues, though. The lighting of the cauldron wasn't the climax. They went for another half hour afterwards. But that wasn't the weirdest part. The athletes were gone by then. They marched in, they lit the cauldron, the athletes left the stadium, then they had a whole nother segment! It was all just odd!
8. Atlanta 1996: Not even Muhammad Ali could save Atlanta! (Speaking of which, the Atlanta Olympics as a whole weren't the best.) The big problem this time? It was way too long! The Ceremony started a little after eight (after NBC had like 90 minutes of pregame!), but The Greatest didn't make his appearance until after midnight. And, outside of Muhammad Ali, there's nothing memorable about it. That shouldn't be the case for the Centennial Olympic Opening Ceremony.
7. Rio 2016: Everyone knew Rio's Opening Ceremony would be drastically different than the spectacles of Beijing and London. So comparing it to those two wouldn't be remotely fair. And Rio's simplified Opening Ceremony achieved its purpose, which was made even harder by the fact that it was the first Olympics in South America, so they were representing an entire continent, not just a country. So why No. 7? Because while there wasn't anything "bad" about it, it simply wasn't as memorable as those above it on the list.
6. Athens 2004: I just wish Athens had done more. It was an Olympic homecoming 108 years in the making, and they did honor both the first Modern Games and the Ancient Olympics. I also loved the beginning, where the entire stadium floor was flooded and empty other than a boy in a boat. However, like Rio, there are few memorable moments that stand out (Greece both starting and ending the Parade of Nations was perhaps the best). Which is why I can't rank Athens any higher than No. 6.
5. Barcelona 1992: This is the first one I can actually remember watching "live," and afterwards I was hooked! They replay it on Olympic Channel every once in a while, and I find myself watching almost every time it's on. It's the first Opening Ceremony that took place at night, and the difference is remarkable. Would that flaming arrow have had anywhere near the same type of impact if it wasn't flying through the pitch black sky?
4. Los Angeles 1984: Home team bias? Perhaps! But this was the first "modern" Opening Ceremony, and LA really did set a great example for how it should be done. It played out like a major Hollywood production, which is fitting considering the setting. I'm even willing to overlook the daylight thing because there was very little they could do about it thanks to the time difference between the East and West coasts.
3. Beijing 2008: A lot of people consider this one to be the best Olympic Opening Ceremony ever and don't even think it's close. Not me. Personally, I think they overdid it. It was too much. Don't get me wrong, it was quite a display and there were some spectacular elements. But I found it overwhelming. Although, considering the worldwide reception, get ready to be overwhelmed again 18 months from now when Beijing hosts the Winter Games.
2. London 2012: Personally, I preferred London's Opening Ceremony to Beijing's. It was just as grand in a very different way. And it was quintessentially British. You knew right away what country the 2012 Olympics were taking place in. The first Olympics in a Twitter/Instagram world even gave us the first viral Olympic moment. Who can ever forget the Queen and James Bond parachuting in? Hands down, the best entrance by any Head of State at any sporting event ever!
1. Sydney 2000: For me, it will be hard for any Olympic Opening Ceremony ever to match the amazing show put on in Sydney. The Aussies did everything right with the 2000 Olympics, starting with the Opening Ceremony. Scary fact: Nikki Webster, the little girl who stole the show, is now 33 years old! And that climax, with Cathy Freeman walking through that pool of water, setting it ablaze and watching the Olympic flame rise still gives me chills!
Every Olympic Opening Ceremony is spectacular in its own unique way, and next year's celebration in Tokyo figures to be no different. IOC President Thomas Bach is keen on bringing the world together to show the global resolve in overcoming the virus, which is something I think we'll all need by then. They obviously won't be able to ignore the elephant in the room, and the organizers have promised to "scale down" the Olympics. What that means for the Opening Ceremony is unclear, but either way, it promises to be spectacular.
The Opening Ceremony has been a staple of every Olympics since the First Modern Games in 1896. However, it has changed dramatically over the years. Certain formal elements, such as the Parade of Nations, the Head of State officially opening the Games and the athlete's oath, have always been included. The Olympic flag debuted in 1920 and the torch relay in 1936. But the Opening Ceremony as we know it today wasn't a thing until 40 years ago.
It wasn't the 1980 Games in Moscow when the Russians wanted to show off their culture to the world that the artistic presentation became the featured portion of the Opening Ceremony. They did the formal stuff first, followed by the artistic portion. Four years later in LA, the order was reversed. Every Olympic host ever since has followed that same format, taking advantage of the biggest stage they'll ever have to showcase their country and city to a worldwide audience.
Tokyo is set to become the 10th Olympic Opening Ceremony to use the format established in LA. Which was the best? That's obviously a subjective question, and people have their own reasons for their personal favorites. Here's how I rank the previous nine:
Wednesday, July 22, 2020
Baseball At Long Last (NL West)
When it comes to the NL West, there's no use even pretending. The Dodgers are so clearly ahead of the pack, and everybody knows it. They've won the division every year since 2013, and there's no reason to think they won't make it eight in a row this season. In fact, I don't think I'm going too far out on a limb to say they've got a shot at breaking the Braves' Major League-record 14 consecutive division titles.
While the Dodgers' sole focus is on ending their 31-year championship drought, the rest of the division is fighting for respectability. There may be an outside shot at a wild card for the second-place finisher, but I think we're more likely looking at each of them hovering around .500. So, the NL West will be competitive in a different sense.
I can't even say which of the other four is "most likely" to give the Dodgers a run for their money. Because LA is in a completely different league! For anyone else to even have a chance, it'll require a ridiculous start on their end and a complete meltdown by the Dodgers. While the first part of that scenario could happen, the other half seems incredibly unlikely.
1. Los Angeles Dodgers: You didn't think they traded for Mookie Betts to have him just for one season, did you? It's really kind of unfair how many young stars the Dodgers have. And none of them are going anywhere! Things are going so good in LA (relatively speaking) that they optioned Garret Lux, a popular preseason pick for NL Rookie of the Year, to their secondary camp. And after trying to trade Joc Pederson across town only to have the deal fall through, they add the DH to the NL this season, giving the Dodgers a chance to start all four of their outfielders!
David Price was also included in the Betts trade, announced he won't be pitching this season, and it hardly matters. Because the Dodgers still have about eight starting pitchers, one of which is a future Hall of Famer who many don't even consider their ace anymore (but he'll still make the Opening Night start!). And they back up that rotation with a bullpen that was once considered a weakness, but is now a potential strength. Even if Kenley Jansen misses time after his coronavirus positive, they've got former Oakland closer Blake Treinen ready to step in. Yeah, this team is only thinking about October.
Projected Lineup: Mookie Betts-RF, Chris Taylor-2B, Justin Turner-3B, Cody Bellinger-CF, Max Muncy-1B, Corey Seager-SS, Joc Pederson-DH, A.J. Pollock-CF, Will Smith-C
Projected Rotation: Clayton Kershaw, Walker Buehler, Alex Wood, Julio Urias, Ross Stripling
Closer: Kenley Jansen
Projected Record: 38-22
2. San Diego Padres: About two months ago, pandemic boredom and lack of sports finally got to me and I downloaded "Out of the Park Baseball." You choose your team and each "game" is the season. I played as the Dodgers once and actually ended up finishing second in the NL West, mainly because I couldn't beat the Padres (I was something like 4-15 against them and went winless in San Diego)!
That's not the only reason why I'm picking the Padres to finish second this season, though. Talent-wise, I think San Diego does have the pieces to end its streak of 10 consecutive losing seasons. They didn't make the flashy free agent signing this winter. Instead they went the trade route, getting Tommy Pham from Tampa Bay. More importantly, though, they've been quietly building an outstanding bullpen anchored by Kirby Yates. And I really like No. 1 starter Chris Paddack, too. Plus, the brown is back!
Projected Lineup: Tommy Pham-LF, Jurickson Profar-2B, Manny Machado-3B, Fernando Tatis Jr.-SS, Eric Hosmer-1B, Wil Myers-DH, Trent Grisham-CF, Francisco Mejia-C, Josh Naylor-RF
Projected Rotation: Chris Paddack, Dinelson Lamet, Garrett Richards, Zach Davies, Joey Lucchesi
Closer: Kirby Yates
Projected Record: 30-30
3. Arizona Diamondbacks: Apparently, in Arizona, one Marte is better than two. Because they went out and got Starling from the Pirates to patrol center field, which allows them to move Ketel back to his natural position of second base. They also have like four guys who should be DHs, so being able to put one of their bats in the lineup while not having to worry about their defense will be a good thing for a Diamondbacks team that figures to score its share of runs.
Although, having a DH also means Madison Bumgarner, one of the few pitchers in baseball who actually can hit, won't get to. Watching Bumgarner in a Diamondbacks jersey will definitely be jarring at first glance and will absolutely require some getting used to. But he does give them the No. 1 pitcher they lost when they traded Zack Greinke in the middle of a game (that he started!) last season. Bumgarner's not the same pitcher who single-handedly won the World Series six years ago, but he's still an above-average Major League starter, so it was a good signing. More importantly, it keeps Robbie Ray in the No. 2 spot for which he's much better suited.
Projected Lineup: Ketel Marte-2B, Nick Ahmed-SS, Christian Walker-1B, Starling Marte-CF, Eduardo Escobar-3B, Jake Lamb-DH, Kole Calhoun-RF, Carson Kelly-C, David Peralta-LF
Projected Rotation: Madison Bumgarner, Robbie Ray, Luke Weaver, Zac Gallen, Merrill Kelly
Closer: Archie Bradley
Projected Record: 29-31
4. Colorado Rockies: It's the same old story in Colorado. Lots of offensive stars who'll score a lot of runs, but not enough pitching depth. Which isn't meant as a swipe at German Marquez, Jon Gray and Kyle Freeland. Pitching in Denver has been tough for the nearly 30 years they've been around. I don't see these guys being able to hold opponents under 4-5 runs a game, though. Which means they're gonna need to rely on their hitters to win games 7-5, and that's a tough thing to ask every night.
Nevertheless, Nolan Arenado is a legitimate superstar, and he anchors a middle of the lineup that can compete with anybody's. That's true even without Ian Desmond, who'll be sitting out the season. Although, I'm curious to see if Charlie Blackmon will show any ill-effects of having had the coronavirus. And the DH, which almost certainly would've been Desmond's spot, gives them the chance to move some guys around. Although, don't be surprised to see Ryan McMahon end up playing first most of the time, pushing Daniel Murphy into the DH role.
Projected Lineup: Trevor Story-SS, Charlie Blackmon-RF, Nolan Arenado-3B, David Dahl-CF, Daniel Murphy-DH, Ryan McMahon-1B, Tony Wolters-C, Raimel Tapia-LF, Garrett Hampson-2B
Projected Rotation: German Marquez, Jon Gray, Kyle Freeland, Antonio Senzatela, Jeff Hoffman
Closer: Wade Davis
Projected Record: 26-34
5. San Francisco Giants: Doesn't it seem like a lifetime ago when the Giants won the World Series in every even-numbered year? Things will really be different in San Francisco this season with the last two links to that championship era gone. Madison Bumgarner is in Arizona, while Buster Posey is one of the more prominent names who has decided not to play this year.
Even the manager is different for the first time in 14 years, with Bruce Bochy retiring after last season. They've brought in Gabe Kapler to replace him, which is a curious choice if you ask me. Kapler found himself in over his head way too many times to count during his two seasons with the Phillies, so it seems odd that he was given another Major League managing job right away. Although, there will be significantly less pressure to win with a young Giants team that's not expected to be very good. Maybe that's enough of a difference and Kapler will end up proving to be a good hire. Either way, this season doesn't seem to be very pretty in San Francisco.
Projected Lineup: Billy Hamilton-CF, Mike Yastrezmski-RF, Evan Longoria-3B, Hunter Pence-DH, Brandon Belt-1B, Alex Dickerson-LF, Brandon Crawford-SS, Mauricio Dubon-2B, Tyler Heineman-C
Projected Rotation: Johnny Cueto, Jeff Samardzija, Kevin Gausman, Drew Smyly, Logan Webb
Closer: Tony Watson
Projected Record: 25-35
And what is this crap about there still possibly being expanded playoffs for this season?! I though that ship had sailed. Now, all of a sudden, they want to do it again? The day before the season starts? Come on!
Anyway, I'm going to assume that the expanded playoffs falls through, just like it did throughout the entire three months of initial negotiations. So, my postseason picks are going to reflect only the standard two wild cards in each league (not the ridiculous five). Either way, regardless of how many wild card teams there are, the two best teams are clear. Whether they played 60 games or 162 games, my World Series pick wouldn't have been any different.
AL Wild Card: Rays over Angels
ALDS: Yankees over Rays, Astros over Twins
ALCS: Yankees over Astros
NL Wild Card: Cubs over Phillies
NLDS: Dodgers over Cubs, Braves over Cardinals
NLCS: Dodgers over Braves
World Series: Dodgers over Yankees
While the Dodgers' sole focus is on ending their 31-year championship drought, the rest of the division is fighting for respectability. There may be an outside shot at a wild card for the second-place finisher, but I think we're more likely looking at each of them hovering around .500. So, the NL West will be competitive in a different sense.
I can't even say which of the other four is "most likely" to give the Dodgers a run for their money. Because LA is in a completely different league! For anyone else to even have a chance, it'll require a ridiculous start on their end and a complete meltdown by the Dodgers. While the first part of that scenario could happen, the other half seems incredibly unlikely.
1. Los Angeles Dodgers: You didn't think they traded for Mookie Betts to have him just for one season, did you? It's really kind of unfair how many young stars the Dodgers have. And none of them are going anywhere! Things are going so good in LA (relatively speaking) that they optioned Garret Lux, a popular preseason pick for NL Rookie of the Year, to their secondary camp. And after trying to trade Joc Pederson across town only to have the deal fall through, they add the DH to the NL this season, giving the Dodgers a chance to start all four of their outfielders!
David Price was also included in the Betts trade, announced he won't be pitching this season, and it hardly matters. Because the Dodgers still have about eight starting pitchers, one of which is a future Hall of Famer who many don't even consider their ace anymore (but he'll still make the Opening Night start!). And they back up that rotation with a bullpen that was once considered a weakness, but is now a potential strength. Even if Kenley Jansen misses time after his coronavirus positive, they've got former Oakland closer Blake Treinen ready to step in. Yeah, this team is only thinking about October.
Projected Lineup: Mookie Betts-RF, Chris Taylor-2B, Justin Turner-3B, Cody Bellinger-CF, Max Muncy-1B, Corey Seager-SS, Joc Pederson-DH, A.J. Pollock-CF, Will Smith-C
Projected Rotation: Clayton Kershaw, Walker Buehler, Alex Wood, Julio Urias, Ross Stripling
Closer: Kenley Jansen
Projected Record: 38-22
2. San Diego Padres: About two months ago, pandemic boredom and lack of sports finally got to me and I downloaded "Out of the Park Baseball." You choose your team and each "game" is the season. I played as the Dodgers once and actually ended up finishing second in the NL West, mainly because I couldn't beat the Padres (I was something like 4-15 against them and went winless in San Diego)!
That's not the only reason why I'm picking the Padres to finish second this season, though. Talent-wise, I think San Diego does have the pieces to end its streak of 10 consecutive losing seasons. They didn't make the flashy free agent signing this winter. Instead they went the trade route, getting Tommy Pham from Tampa Bay. More importantly, though, they've been quietly building an outstanding bullpen anchored by Kirby Yates. And I really like No. 1 starter Chris Paddack, too. Plus, the brown is back!
Projected Lineup: Tommy Pham-LF, Jurickson Profar-2B, Manny Machado-3B, Fernando Tatis Jr.-SS, Eric Hosmer-1B, Wil Myers-DH, Trent Grisham-CF, Francisco Mejia-C, Josh Naylor-RF
Projected Rotation: Chris Paddack, Dinelson Lamet, Garrett Richards, Zach Davies, Joey Lucchesi
Closer: Kirby Yates
Projected Record: 30-30
3. Arizona Diamondbacks: Apparently, in Arizona, one Marte is better than two. Because they went out and got Starling from the Pirates to patrol center field, which allows them to move Ketel back to his natural position of second base. They also have like four guys who should be DHs, so being able to put one of their bats in the lineup while not having to worry about their defense will be a good thing for a Diamondbacks team that figures to score its share of runs.
Although, having a DH also means Madison Bumgarner, one of the few pitchers in baseball who actually can hit, won't get to. Watching Bumgarner in a Diamondbacks jersey will definitely be jarring at first glance and will absolutely require some getting used to. But he does give them the No. 1 pitcher they lost when they traded Zack Greinke in the middle of a game (that he started!) last season. Bumgarner's not the same pitcher who single-handedly won the World Series six years ago, but he's still an above-average Major League starter, so it was a good signing. More importantly, it keeps Robbie Ray in the No. 2 spot for which he's much better suited.
Projected Lineup: Ketel Marte-2B, Nick Ahmed-SS, Christian Walker-1B, Starling Marte-CF, Eduardo Escobar-3B, Jake Lamb-DH, Kole Calhoun-RF, Carson Kelly-C, David Peralta-LF
Projected Rotation: Madison Bumgarner, Robbie Ray, Luke Weaver, Zac Gallen, Merrill Kelly
Closer: Archie Bradley
Projected Record: 29-31
4. Colorado Rockies: It's the same old story in Colorado. Lots of offensive stars who'll score a lot of runs, but not enough pitching depth. Which isn't meant as a swipe at German Marquez, Jon Gray and Kyle Freeland. Pitching in Denver has been tough for the nearly 30 years they've been around. I don't see these guys being able to hold opponents under 4-5 runs a game, though. Which means they're gonna need to rely on their hitters to win games 7-5, and that's a tough thing to ask every night.
Nevertheless, Nolan Arenado is a legitimate superstar, and he anchors a middle of the lineup that can compete with anybody's. That's true even without Ian Desmond, who'll be sitting out the season. Although, I'm curious to see if Charlie Blackmon will show any ill-effects of having had the coronavirus. And the DH, which almost certainly would've been Desmond's spot, gives them the chance to move some guys around. Although, don't be surprised to see Ryan McMahon end up playing first most of the time, pushing Daniel Murphy into the DH role.
Projected Lineup: Trevor Story-SS, Charlie Blackmon-RF, Nolan Arenado-3B, David Dahl-CF, Daniel Murphy-DH, Ryan McMahon-1B, Tony Wolters-C, Raimel Tapia-LF, Garrett Hampson-2B
Projected Rotation: German Marquez, Jon Gray, Kyle Freeland, Antonio Senzatela, Jeff Hoffman
Closer: Wade Davis
Projected Record: 26-34
5. San Francisco Giants: Doesn't it seem like a lifetime ago when the Giants won the World Series in every even-numbered year? Things will really be different in San Francisco this season with the last two links to that championship era gone. Madison Bumgarner is in Arizona, while Buster Posey is one of the more prominent names who has decided not to play this year.
Even the manager is different for the first time in 14 years, with Bruce Bochy retiring after last season. They've brought in Gabe Kapler to replace him, which is a curious choice if you ask me. Kapler found himself in over his head way too many times to count during his two seasons with the Phillies, so it seems odd that he was given another Major League managing job right away. Although, there will be significantly less pressure to win with a young Giants team that's not expected to be very good. Maybe that's enough of a difference and Kapler will end up proving to be a good hire. Either way, this season doesn't seem to be very pretty in San Francisco.
Projected Lineup: Billy Hamilton-CF, Mike Yastrezmski-RF, Evan Longoria-3B, Hunter Pence-DH, Brandon Belt-1B, Alex Dickerson-LF, Brandon Crawford-SS, Mauricio Dubon-2B, Tyler Heineman-C
Projected Rotation: Johnny Cueto, Jeff Samardzija, Kevin Gausman, Drew Smyly, Logan Webb
Closer: Tony Watson
Projected Record: 25-35
And what is this crap about there still possibly being expanded playoffs for this season?! I though that ship had sailed. Now, all of a sudden, they want to do it again? The day before the season starts? Come on!
Anyway, I'm going to assume that the expanded playoffs falls through, just like it did throughout the entire three months of initial negotiations. So, my postseason picks are going to reflect only the standard two wild cards in each league (not the ridiculous five). Either way, regardless of how many wild card teams there are, the two best teams are clear. Whether they played 60 games or 162 games, my World Series pick wouldn't have been any different.
AL Wild Card: Rays over Angels
ALDS: Yankees over Rays, Astros over Twins
ALCS: Yankees over Astros
NL Wild Card: Cubs over Phillies
NLDS: Dodgers over Cubs, Braves over Cardinals
NLCS: Dodgers over Braves
World Series: Dodgers over Yankees
Tuesday, July 21, 2020
Baseball At Long Last (AL West)
Will any team benefit more from the fact that there will be no fans in the stands all season than the Houston Astros? Not that they don't deserve the treatment they would've gotten in EVERY. SINGLE. stadium they visited this year. But they're essentially getting a "Get Out of Jail Free" card. I'm not saying fans will have forgotten by next season, but the reaction won't be nearly what it would've been. Fortunately, other teams haven't forgotten, either. So the Astros will still face plenty of hostility in 2020.
Houston's dominance of the AL West is reaching its ends, too. Garbage can or not, the Astros are still the best team in the division. But this might be the last year we can unquestionably say that. Because it's not just the A's anymore. The Angels may finally have enough to be relevant! They might even be able to send Mike Trout to the playoffs for the second time in his career (had the MLBPA agreed to the expanded postseason, that would've been virtually guaranteed).
The Rangers made a big push, too, in hopes of christening their new ballpark (which looks like either an airplane hangar or a warehouse depending on whether the roof is open or not) with a playoff berth. They're still only the fourth-best team in the division, though, so playing half their games against the three that are better than them (plus a handful with the Dodgers) isn't going to help matters.
Then there are our friends in Seattle. One thing the Mariners have going for them is the fact that they won't be the team that logs the most travel miles for a change. And, let's not forget, they started 13-2 last season before coming back to earth. But this season, 15 games is a quarter of the schedule. So if they can get out to another fast start, who knows what could happen?
1. Houston Astros: It wasn't all the garbage can (which actually makes the whole thing much worse)! The Astros' players have plenty of talent on their own, and they'll be out to show that they can win the legitimate way, too. And they know they have a target on their backs, both for the cheating and for the simple fact that they're the hunted. Combine that with the fact that they'll actually face some real competition in the AL West and we'll see an Astros team playing with a different purpose in 2020.
Yet, despite all the offseason turmoil, Houston remains the team to beat in the division. Even without Gerrit Cole, their rotation is far superior to their division rivals, and the delay only helped in that ace Justin Verlander, who wouldn't have been ready in April, is good to go. My biggest concern about the Astros, actually, is how they'll respond to Dusty Baker, who's a much different type of manager than A.J. Hinch. I doubt it'll be much of an issue, though. Dusty's a well-respected baseball man. He'll make the most of this talented team, get them to play the right way, and they'll legitimately win another division title.
Projected Lineup: George Springer-CF, Alex Bregman-3B, Jose Altuve-2B, Michael Brantley-LF, Yordan Alvarez-DH, Carlos Correa-SS, Yuli Gurriel-1B, Josh Reddick-RF, Martin Maldonado-C
Projected Rotation: Justin Verlander, Zack Greinke, Lance McCullers Jr., Jose Urquidy, Austin Pruitt
Closer: Roberto Osuna
Projected Record: 34-26
2. Los Angeles Angels: They missed out on Gerrit Cole, but it wasn't a completely lost winter for the Angels, who ended up with the biggest free agent offensive prize in Anthony Rendon. The lineup was never the problem, but the addition of Rendon makes it that much stronger. Most of all, it gives Trout some protection, which great as he once was, future Hall of Famer Albert Pujols hasn't provided in several years. BTW, Albert's just five home runs away from passing Willie Mays for fifth all-time. Sadly, he'll hit it in an empty stadium.
Pitching has long been the Angels' Achilles heel, though, and it looks like that will be the case again. Shohei Ohtani is back on the mound after being limited to DH duty last season, which will obviously help tremendously. But he'll only start once a week, so how much difference will 10 starts really make? Instead, Julio Teheran and Dylan Bundy could be the key. It was smart to bring in two veteran guys at the back end of the rotation. If they can give the Angels 7-8 quality starts each, that could be what gets them a wild card.
Projected Lineup: Tommy La Stella-2B, Mike Trout-CF, Anthony Rendon-3B, Shohei Ohtani-DH, Justin Upton-LF, Andrelton Simmons-SS, Albert Pujols-1B, Brian Goodwin-LF, Jason Castro-C
Projected Rotation: Shohei Ohtani, Andrew Heaney, Julio Teheran, Dylan Bundy, Matt Andriese, Felix Pena
Closer: Hansel Robles
Projected Record: 33-27 (Wild Card)
3. Oakland Athletics: Some experts are really high on Oakland. And with good reason. The A's have made back-to-back Wild Card Game appearances and won 97 games both times. They likely would've won a division title if not for Houston's three straight 100-win campaigns, but instead were one-and-done in the postseason. So their mission is simple. Finish ahead of the Astros and avoid the one-game vs. the Yankees or Rays scenario.
Problem is, the Angels are significantly better this year, so this will be a three-way race. That doesn't mean Oakland can't win it, though. The A's have three All*Stars in the infield, including shortstop Marcus Semien, who finished third in MVP voting last year. And their starting rotation, while unheralded, is strong. Sean Manaea returns from Tommy John surgery, and don't be surprised if either Jesus Luzardo or A.J. Puk is the AL Rookie of the Year. The rotation is headed by Mike Fiers, who was the whistleblower about what went on in Houston, so it'll be interesting to see what happens when he faces the Astros.
Projected Lineup: Marcus Semien-SS, Ramon Laureano-CF, Matt Chapman-3B, Matt Olson-1B, Khris Davis-DH, Stephen Piscotty-RF, Mark Canha-LF, Sean Murphy-C, Franklin Barreto-2B
Projected Rotation: Mike Fiers, Sean Manaea, Frankie Montas, Jesus Luzardo, A.J. Puk
Closer: Liam Hendriks
Projected Record: 31-29
4. Texas Rangers: If the Rangers were in the AL Central, we'd be talking about them as a potential playoff team. Problem is they're in the AL West, so that's a long shot. There's definitely a chance that the Rangers will be disrupters. But to think they'll finish ahead of two in the Astros/Angels/A's group is asking a lot. We also have no idea how their new park is going to play. They're going from playing on grass in the oppressive Dallas summer heat to playing on turf under a retractable roof that will probably be closed most of the time. We'll see how much of a difference that makes.
Discount Texas at your own risk, though. Because you know Joey Gallo's going to hit a bunch of home runs, and the rest of the offense has to potential to do that, too. Most importantly, though, the Rangers enhanced their pitching staff big time with the trade for Corey Kluber. Yes, 2019 was an injury-plagued lost season, but this is a guy who went 20-7 two years ago and had 18 wins each of the two seasons before that. If they got that Corey Kluber, it was a steal. More importantly, he consistently throws 200 innings. And for a team whose glaring weakness is the bullpen, getting as many innings as possible out of the rotation is a very good idea.
Projected Lineup: Shin-Soo Choo-DH, Rougned Odor-2B, Elvis Andrus-SS, Joey Gallo-RF, Danny Santana-CF, Todd Frazier-3B, Ronald Guzman-1B, Robinson Chirinos-C, Willie Calhoun-LF
Projected Rotation: Corey Kluber, Mike Minor, Lance Lynn, Kyle Gibson, Jordan Lyles
Closer: Jose Leclerc
Projected Record: 28-32
5. Seattle Mariners: Now that the Nationals have been there, the Mariners have the distinction as the only team in the Majors to have never played in the World Series. They also have the longest playoff drought in baseball, having not reached the postseason since 2001. Don't expect either of those to change this season. Because the Mariners, after several years of trying to be good, are not anymore. And, with three good teams in the division, there's really no logical landing place for them other than the cellar.
Even worse, now that Felix Hernandez is gone, the Mariners don't even have a franchise player (I guess it's maybe Kyle Seager). So, this really is a new era in Seattle. And, other than one or two guys, nobody in the lineup really scares you, and the rotation doesn't either. They aren't nearly as bad as the Orioles or Tigers, so it would be unfair to put them in that category, but, even though it's only 60 games, this will still be a long season in Seattle. The good thing is there were probably going to be a lot of empty seats at Mariners games anyway, so they might not even notice the difference.
Projected Lineup: Mallex Smith-CF, Dee Gordon-2B, Kyle Seager-3B, Daniel Vogelbach-DH, Evan White-1B, J.P. Crawford-SS, Jake Fraley-LF, Tom Murphy-C, Kyle Lewis-RF
Projected Rotation: Marco Gonzalez, Taijuan Walker, Yusei Kikuchi, Kendall Graveman, Justus Sheffield
Closer: Matt Magill
Projected Record: 26-34
Houston's dominance of the AL West is reaching its ends, too. Garbage can or not, the Astros are still the best team in the division. But this might be the last year we can unquestionably say that. Because it's not just the A's anymore. The Angels may finally have enough to be relevant! They might even be able to send Mike Trout to the playoffs for the second time in his career (had the MLBPA agreed to the expanded postseason, that would've been virtually guaranteed).
The Rangers made a big push, too, in hopes of christening their new ballpark (which looks like either an airplane hangar or a warehouse depending on whether the roof is open or not) with a playoff berth. They're still only the fourth-best team in the division, though, so playing half their games against the three that are better than them (plus a handful with the Dodgers) isn't going to help matters.
Then there are our friends in Seattle. One thing the Mariners have going for them is the fact that they won't be the team that logs the most travel miles for a change. And, let's not forget, they started 13-2 last season before coming back to earth. But this season, 15 games is a quarter of the schedule. So if they can get out to another fast start, who knows what could happen?
1. Houston Astros: It wasn't all the garbage can (which actually makes the whole thing much worse)! The Astros' players have plenty of talent on their own, and they'll be out to show that they can win the legitimate way, too. And they know they have a target on their backs, both for the cheating and for the simple fact that they're the hunted. Combine that with the fact that they'll actually face some real competition in the AL West and we'll see an Astros team playing with a different purpose in 2020.
Yet, despite all the offseason turmoil, Houston remains the team to beat in the division. Even without Gerrit Cole, their rotation is far superior to their division rivals, and the delay only helped in that ace Justin Verlander, who wouldn't have been ready in April, is good to go. My biggest concern about the Astros, actually, is how they'll respond to Dusty Baker, who's a much different type of manager than A.J. Hinch. I doubt it'll be much of an issue, though. Dusty's a well-respected baseball man. He'll make the most of this talented team, get them to play the right way, and they'll legitimately win another division title.
Projected Lineup: George Springer-CF, Alex Bregman-3B, Jose Altuve-2B, Michael Brantley-LF, Yordan Alvarez-DH, Carlos Correa-SS, Yuli Gurriel-1B, Josh Reddick-RF, Martin Maldonado-C
Projected Rotation: Justin Verlander, Zack Greinke, Lance McCullers Jr., Jose Urquidy, Austin Pruitt
Closer: Roberto Osuna
Projected Record: 34-26
2. Los Angeles Angels: They missed out on Gerrit Cole, but it wasn't a completely lost winter for the Angels, who ended up with the biggest free agent offensive prize in Anthony Rendon. The lineup was never the problem, but the addition of Rendon makes it that much stronger. Most of all, it gives Trout some protection, which great as he once was, future Hall of Famer Albert Pujols hasn't provided in several years. BTW, Albert's just five home runs away from passing Willie Mays for fifth all-time. Sadly, he'll hit it in an empty stadium.
Pitching has long been the Angels' Achilles heel, though, and it looks like that will be the case again. Shohei Ohtani is back on the mound after being limited to DH duty last season, which will obviously help tremendously. But he'll only start once a week, so how much difference will 10 starts really make? Instead, Julio Teheran and Dylan Bundy could be the key. It was smart to bring in two veteran guys at the back end of the rotation. If they can give the Angels 7-8 quality starts each, that could be what gets them a wild card.
Projected Lineup: Tommy La Stella-2B, Mike Trout-CF, Anthony Rendon-3B, Shohei Ohtani-DH, Justin Upton-LF, Andrelton Simmons-SS, Albert Pujols-1B, Brian Goodwin-LF, Jason Castro-C
Projected Rotation: Shohei Ohtani, Andrew Heaney, Julio Teheran, Dylan Bundy, Matt Andriese, Felix Pena
Closer: Hansel Robles
Projected Record: 33-27 (Wild Card)
3. Oakland Athletics: Some experts are really high on Oakland. And with good reason. The A's have made back-to-back Wild Card Game appearances and won 97 games both times. They likely would've won a division title if not for Houston's three straight 100-win campaigns, but instead were one-and-done in the postseason. So their mission is simple. Finish ahead of the Astros and avoid the one-game vs. the Yankees or Rays scenario.
Problem is, the Angels are significantly better this year, so this will be a three-way race. That doesn't mean Oakland can't win it, though. The A's have three All*Stars in the infield, including shortstop Marcus Semien, who finished third in MVP voting last year. And their starting rotation, while unheralded, is strong. Sean Manaea returns from Tommy John surgery, and don't be surprised if either Jesus Luzardo or A.J. Puk is the AL Rookie of the Year. The rotation is headed by Mike Fiers, who was the whistleblower about what went on in Houston, so it'll be interesting to see what happens when he faces the Astros.
Projected Lineup: Marcus Semien-SS, Ramon Laureano-CF, Matt Chapman-3B, Matt Olson-1B, Khris Davis-DH, Stephen Piscotty-RF, Mark Canha-LF, Sean Murphy-C, Franklin Barreto-2B
Projected Rotation: Mike Fiers, Sean Manaea, Frankie Montas, Jesus Luzardo, A.J. Puk
Closer: Liam Hendriks
Projected Record: 31-29
4. Texas Rangers: If the Rangers were in the AL Central, we'd be talking about them as a potential playoff team. Problem is they're in the AL West, so that's a long shot. There's definitely a chance that the Rangers will be disrupters. But to think they'll finish ahead of two in the Astros/Angels/A's group is asking a lot. We also have no idea how their new park is going to play. They're going from playing on grass in the oppressive Dallas summer heat to playing on turf under a retractable roof that will probably be closed most of the time. We'll see how much of a difference that makes.
Discount Texas at your own risk, though. Because you know Joey Gallo's going to hit a bunch of home runs, and the rest of the offense has to potential to do that, too. Most importantly, though, the Rangers enhanced their pitching staff big time with the trade for Corey Kluber. Yes, 2019 was an injury-plagued lost season, but this is a guy who went 20-7 two years ago and had 18 wins each of the two seasons before that. If they got that Corey Kluber, it was a steal. More importantly, he consistently throws 200 innings. And for a team whose glaring weakness is the bullpen, getting as many innings as possible out of the rotation is a very good idea.
Projected Lineup: Shin-Soo Choo-DH, Rougned Odor-2B, Elvis Andrus-SS, Joey Gallo-RF, Danny Santana-CF, Todd Frazier-3B, Ronald Guzman-1B, Robinson Chirinos-C, Willie Calhoun-LF
Projected Rotation: Corey Kluber, Mike Minor, Lance Lynn, Kyle Gibson, Jordan Lyles
Closer: Jose Leclerc
Projected Record: 28-32
5. Seattle Mariners: Now that the Nationals have been there, the Mariners have the distinction as the only team in the Majors to have never played in the World Series. They also have the longest playoff drought in baseball, having not reached the postseason since 2001. Don't expect either of those to change this season. Because the Mariners, after several years of trying to be good, are not anymore. And, with three good teams in the division, there's really no logical landing place for them other than the cellar.
Even worse, now that Felix Hernandez is gone, the Mariners don't even have a franchise player (I guess it's maybe Kyle Seager). So, this really is a new era in Seattle. And, other than one or two guys, nobody in the lineup really scares you, and the rotation doesn't either. They aren't nearly as bad as the Orioles or Tigers, so it would be unfair to put them in that category, but, even though it's only 60 games, this will still be a long season in Seattle. The good thing is there were probably going to be a lot of empty seats at Mariners games anyway, so they might not even notice the difference.
Projected Lineup: Mallex Smith-CF, Dee Gordon-2B, Kyle Seager-3B, Daniel Vogelbach-DH, Evan White-1B, J.P. Crawford-SS, Jake Fraley-LF, Tom Murphy-C, Kyle Lewis-RF
Projected Rotation: Marco Gonzalez, Taijuan Walker, Yusei Kikuchi, Kendall Graveman, Justus Sheffield
Closer: Matt Magill
Projected Record: 26-34
Sunday, July 19, 2020
Baseball At Long Last (NL Central)
Just like the NL East, the NL Central is wide open. Just like the NL East, you can take the last place team (Pittsburgh), put the other four in a hat, pull them out, and that could easily be your final standings. The differences between them are that subtle.
Unlike the NL East, however, the NL Central is a haven of mediocrity. In the NL East, four good teams will be battling for the division title. In the NL Central, it's four teams that are definitely flawed. Which means we've likely got the makings of a very competitive race. Especially since none of them have to play the Dodgers or any of the NL East teams. They're only facing the two worst divisions in baseball.
I think the universal DH this season will have a big impact on the NL Central, too. Cincinnati went out, spent a lot of money, and added about 15 hitters. They weren't all going to get at-bats. Now that's going to be a lot easier. Likewise, Ryan Braun was on his way to becoming a part-time player/pinch hitter in Milwaukee. Now he can DH. Same thing with Matt Carpenter. Same with Kyle Schwarber, who, let's face it, was basically already a DH anyway.
With all that being said, though, the Cardinals always somehow find a way. Last year, it was St. Louis who won the division, then they went and beat Atlanta in the playoffs. And how did the Cardinals respond to the spending sprees by their division rivals? By not doing a damn thing! Which probably means some dude you've never heard of will emerge in September and lead them to another division title.
1. St. Louis Cardinals: The Cardinals are like the National League version of the A's. When you expect them to be good, they aren't. When you don't, they randomly make the playoffs. That was certainly the case last season, a lot of which was due to the emergence of Jack Flaherty. Flaherty and Dakota Hudson combined to win 27 games in 2019. If they can put up similar numbers and the Cardinals get even representative efforts from veterans Miles Mikolas and Adam Wainwright, that takes a lot of pressure off their bullpen. And their offense.
While unlikely, this could be Yadi Molina's final season before he gets his statue outside Busch Stadium and plaque in Cooperstown (Yadi is only 37 hits from 2,000, so that's one milestone that actually can still happen this year!). He's no longer the focal point of the offense, but he's still the engine that makes this team go. Ditto with Matt Carpenter, who may not completely enjoy DHing, but he's a calming veteran presence and a bat you want in the lineup. And part of the reason St. Louis didn't do anything in the offseason is because that lineup was already plenty good enough to win the NL Central.
Projected Lineup: Dexter Fowler-RF, Matt Carpenter-DH, Paul Goldschmidt-1B, Paul DeJong-SS, Tommy Edman-3B, Harrison Bader-CF, Tyler O'Neill-LF, Yadier Molina-C, Kolten Wong-2B
Projected Rotation: Jack Flaherty, Dakota Hudson, Miles Mikolas, Adam Wainwright, Kwang Hyun Kim
Closer: Andrew Miller
Projected Record: 34-26
2. Chicago Cubs: Will there be one last run on the North Side before the Cubs officially close the book on the Bryant/Rizzo/Baez Era? Of course, they got their title, which will tide their fans over for a while. But the Cubs could've been so much more! They could've been a dynasty! Instead, they followed the disappointment of their Wild Card Game loss in 2018 with a terrible 2019 season that got manager Joe Maddon pushed out the door. Replacing him is first-time manager David Ross, a backup catcher on that 2016 championship team. (And with Maddon gone and a DH, they won't annoy me by batting their pitcher eighth in every game this season!)
It's unfair to pin it all on Maddon, but we'll see how much of a difference the manager can make. Because this is a good team and if Ross isn't in over his head, they're fully capable of rebounding. In fact, talent-wise, they're still the best team in the division. But, again, they need to play like it. Getting Schwarber out of left field will certainly help, too, as it'll allow them to play both Ian Happ and Albert Almora (and get a non-fielder off the field!). Although, I wouldn't be surprised if Victor Caratini, their backup catcher, ends up DHing a lot.
Projected Lineup: Ian Happ-CF, Kris Bryant-3B, Javier Baez-SS, Anthony Rizzo-1B, Willson Contreras-C, Kyle Schwarber-DH, Jason Heyward-RF, Nico Hoerner-2B, Albert Almora Jr.-LF
Projected Rotation: Jon Lester, Yu Darvish, Kyle Hendricks, Jose Quintana, Tyler Chatwood
Closer: Craig Kimbrel
Projected Record: 32-28 (Wild Card)
3. Cincinnati Reds: Where did the Reds suddenly find all this money? Cincinnati hasn't had a winning record since 2013, yet loaded up in free agency for an all-out run at 2020. And who knows? With the shortened season, it might pay off. Because I can see them getting hot for a few weeks and riding it. In a 162-game season, I think they would've been exposed. But in 60 games, it's possible.
Cincinnati was almost too aggressive, getting more players than they had positions for. So the Reds are one team that will take full advantage of having an extra bat in the lineup every game. That will likely help their pitching staff, too. And that pitching staff will be the key to their success. Because we know they're gonna score runs. That's always been the case. The problem was they didn't have solid enough pitching and would lose 7-5. Can they flip those into 6-4 victories? If they can, their playoff drought might end. But they're still missing a couple pieces, so they look to be a year away. Finishing .500, however, is a reasonable goal.
Projected Lineup: Nick Senzel-CF, Joey Votto-1B, Eugenio Suarez-3B, Nick Castellanos-DH, Mike Moustakas-2B, Jesse Winkler-LF, Shogo Akiyama-RF, Freddy Galvis-SS, Tucker Barnhardt-C
Projected Rotation: Luis Castillo, Sonny Gray, Trevor Bauer, Anthony DeSclafini, Wade Miley
Closer: Raisel Iglesias
Projected Record: 31-29
4. Milwaukee Brewers: Craig Counsell has had his biggest weapon taken away from him. His mastery of the September 40-man rosters is a big reason why the Brewers have made back-to-back playoff appearances. Of course, having Christian Yelich and Josh Hader hasn't hurt, either, but the point remains. The Brewers won't have all of those extra guys at their disposal this year, which will make the September run a little more challenging.
However, to discount the Brewers with the ridiculous amount of talent on this roster would just be idiotic. They already had Yelich and Lorenzo Cain in the outfield, then added Avisail Garcia to it, which moved Braun to first base, but only as the right-handed half of a platoon with Justin Smoak. And we all know about the Brewers' bullpen. The weakness of this team is probably the starting rotation, which puts a lot of pressure on Brandon Woodruff. And the rotation is the reason why I can't see Milwaukee making a return trip to the postseason. Although, with a bullpen that good, the starters might only need to go five because they know Yelich and Co. will score plenty of runs.
Projected Lineup: Lorenzo Cain-CF, Keston Hiura-2B, Christian Yelich-LF, Avisail Garcia-RF, Ryan Braun-DH, Justin Smoak-1B, Eric Sogard-3B, Orlando Arcia-SS, Omar Narvaez-C
Projected Rotation: Brandon Woodruff, Adrian Hauser, Brett Anderson, Josh Lindblom, Brent Suter
Closer: Josh Hader
Projected Record: 29-31
5. Pittsburgh Pirates: When they announced the universal DH for this season and people started going through potential in-house options for the Pirates, everybody was stumped. Simply put, Pittsburgh barely has eight Major League hitters to make a lineup. Now you want them to make one with nine? Don't get me wrong. They're not in Marlins/Orioles/Tigers territory. And things aren't as bad as they were a few years ago. But look for the Pirates' best players to not be wearing Pittsburgh uniforms at season's end.
Because there actually are some worthwhile pieces here beyond just Josh Bell and Chris Archer. Joe Musgrove "won" a ring in Houston and could definitely help a team looking for a starter. And you know there'll be plenty of interest in closer Keone Kela. Problem is, the Pirates don't have enough talent to keep pace with the other four teams in this division. Besides Bell and maybe Gregory Polanco, would any of their regulars start on another Major League team? And with those four closely matched and duking at the top, that leaves last place for the Pirates. It would be very surprising if it didn't.
Projected Lineup: Jarrod Dyson-CF, Kevin Newman-SS, Josh Bell-1B, Gregory Polanco-RF, Bryan Reynolds-LF, Adam Frazier-2B, Colin Moran-3B, Guillermo Heredia-DH, Jacob Stallings-C
Projected Rotation: Chris Archer, Joe Musgrove, Trevor Williams, Mitch Keller, Derek Holland
Closer: Keone Kela
Projected Record: 27-33
Unlike the NL East, however, the NL Central is a haven of mediocrity. In the NL East, four good teams will be battling for the division title. In the NL Central, it's four teams that are definitely flawed. Which means we've likely got the makings of a very competitive race. Especially since none of them have to play the Dodgers or any of the NL East teams. They're only facing the two worst divisions in baseball.
I think the universal DH this season will have a big impact on the NL Central, too. Cincinnati went out, spent a lot of money, and added about 15 hitters. They weren't all going to get at-bats. Now that's going to be a lot easier. Likewise, Ryan Braun was on his way to becoming a part-time player/pinch hitter in Milwaukee. Now he can DH. Same thing with Matt Carpenter. Same with Kyle Schwarber, who, let's face it, was basically already a DH anyway.
With all that being said, though, the Cardinals always somehow find a way. Last year, it was St. Louis who won the division, then they went and beat Atlanta in the playoffs. And how did the Cardinals respond to the spending sprees by their division rivals? By not doing a damn thing! Which probably means some dude you've never heard of will emerge in September and lead them to another division title.
1. St. Louis Cardinals: The Cardinals are like the National League version of the A's. When you expect them to be good, they aren't. When you don't, they randomly make the playoffs. That was certainly the case last season, a lot of which was due to the emergence of Jack Flaherty. Flaherty and Dakota Hudson combined to win 27 games in 2019. If they can put up similar numbers and the Cardinals get even representative efforts from veterans Miles Mikolas and Adam Wainwright, that takes a lot of pressure off their bullpen. And their offense.
While unlikely, this could be Yadi Molina's final season before he gets his statue outside Busch Stadium and plaque in Cooperstown (Yadi is only 37 hits from 2,000, so that's one milestone that actually can still happen this year!). He's no longer the focal point of the offense, but he's still the engine that makes this team go. Ditto with Matt Carpenter, who may not completely enjoy DHing, but he's a calming veteran presence and a bat you want in the lineup. And part of the reason St. Louis didn't do anything in the offseason is because that lineup was already plenty good enough to win the NL Central.
Projected Lineup: Dexter Fowler-RF, Matt Carpenter-DH, Paul Goldschmidt-1B, Paul DeJong-SS, Tommy Edman-3B, Harrison Bader-CF, Tyler O'Neill-LF, Yadier Molina-C, Kolten Wong-2B
Projected Rotation: Jack Flaherty, Dakota Hudson, Miles Mikolas, Adam Wainwright, Kwang Hyun Kim
Closer: Andrew Miller
Projected Record: 34-26
2. Chicago Cubs: Will there be one last run on the North Side before the Cubs officially close the book on the Bryant/Rizzo/Baez Era? Of course, they got their title, which will tide their fans over for a while. But the Cubs could've been so much more! They could've been a dynasty! Instead, they followed the disappointment of their Wild Card Game loss in 2018 with a terrible 2019 season that got manager Joe Maddon pushed out the door. Replacing him is first-time manager David Ross, a backup catcher on that 2016 championship team. (And with Maddon gone and a DH, they won't annoy me by batting their pitcher eighth in every game this season!)
It's unfair to pin it all on Maddon, but we'll see how much of a difference the manager can make. Because this is a good team and if Ross isn't in over his head, they're fully capable of rebounding. In fact, talent-wise, they're still the best team in the division. But, again, they need to play like it. Getting Schwarber out of left field will certainly help, too, as it'll allow them to play both Ian Happ and Albert Almora (and get a non-fielder off the field!). Although, I wouldn't be surprised if Victor Caratini, their backup catcher, ends up DHing a lot.
Projected Lineup: Ian Happ-CF, Kris Bryant-3B, Javier Baez-SS, Anthony Rizzo-1B, Willson Contreras-C, Kyle Schwarber-DH, Jason Heyward-RF, Nico Hoerner-2B, Albert Almora Jr.-LF
Projected Rotation: Jon Lester, Yu Darvish, Kyle Hendricks, Jose Quintana, Tyler Chatwood
Closer: Craig Kimbrel
Projected Record: 32-28 (Wild Card)
3. Cincinnati Reds: Where did the Reds suddenly find all this money? Cincinnati hasn't had a winning record since 2013, yet loaded up in free agency for an all-out run at 2020. And who knows? With the shortened season, it might pay off. Because I can see them getting hot for a few weeks and riding it. In a 162-game season, I think they would've been exposed. But in 60 games, it's possible.
Cincinnati was almost too aggressive, getting more players than they had positions for. So the Reds are one team that will take full advantage of having an extra bat in the lineup every game. That will likely help their pitching staff, too. And that pitching staff will be the key to their success. Because we know they're gonna score runs. That's always been the case. The problem was they didn't have solid enough pitching and would lose 7-5. Can they flip those into 6-4 victories? If they can, their playoff drought might end. But they're still missing a couple pieces, so they look to be a year away. Finishing .500, however, is a reasonable goal.
Projected Lineup: Nick Senzel-CF, Joey Votto-1B, Eugenio Suarez-3B, Nick Castellanos-DH, Mike Moustakas-2B, Jesse Winkler-LF, Shogo Akiyama-RF, Freddy Galvis-SS, Tucker Barnhardt-C
Projected Rotation: Luis Castillo, Sonny Gray, Trevor Bauer, Anthony DeSclafini, Wade Miley
Closer: Raisel Iglesias
Projected Record: 31-29
4. Milwaukee Brewers: Craig Counsell has had his biggest weapon taken away from him. His mastery of the September 40-man rosters is a big reason why the Brewers have made back-to-back playoff appearances. Of course, having Christian Yelich and Josh Hader hasn't hurt, either, but the point remains. The Brewers won't have all of those extra guys at their disposal this year, which will make the September run a little more challenging.
However, to discount the Brewers with the ridiculous amount of talent on this roster would just be idiotic. They already had Yelich and Lorenzo Cain in the outfield, then added Avisail Garcia to it, which moved Braun to first base, but only as the right-handed half of a platoon with Justin Smoak. And we all know about the Brewers' bullpen. The weakness of this team is probably the starting rotation, which puts a lot of pressure on Brandon Woodruff. And the rotation is the reason why I can't see Milwaukee making a return trip to the postseason. Although, with a bullpen that good, the starters might only need to go five because they know Yelich and Co. will score plenty of runs.
Projected Lineup: Lorenzo Cain-CF, Keston Hiura-2B, Christian Yelich-LF, Avisail Garcia-RF, Ryan Braun-DH, Justin Smoak-1B, Eric Sogard-3B, Orlando Arcia-SS, Omar Narvaez-C
Projected Rotation: Brandon Woodruff, Adrian Hauser, Brett Anderson, Josh Lindblom, Brent Suter
Closer: Josh Hader
Projected Record: 29-31
5. Pittsburgh Pirates: When they announced the universal DH for this season and people started going through potential in-house options for the Pirates, everybody was stumped. Simply put, Pittsburgh barely has eight Major League hitters to make a lineup. Now you want them to make one with nine? Don't get me wrong. They're not in Marlins/Orioles/Tigers territory. And things aren't as bad as they were a few years ago. But look for the Pirates' best players to not be wearing Pittsburgh uniforms at season's end.
Because there actually are some worthwhile pieces here beyond just Josh Bell and Chris Archer. Joe Musgrove "won" a ring in Houston and could definitely help a team looking for a starter. And you know there'll be plenty of interest in closer Keone Kela. Problem is, the Pirates don't have enough talent to keep pace with the other four teams in this division. Besides Bell and maybe Gregory Polanco, would any of their regulars start on another Major League team? And with those four closely matched and duking at the top, that leaves last place for the Pirates. It would be very surprising if it didn't.
Projected Lineup: Jarrod Dyson-CF, Kevin Newman-SS, Josh Bell-1B, Gregory Polanco-RF, Bryan Reynolds-LF, Adam Frazier-2B, Colin Moran-3B, Guillermo Heredia-DH, Jacob Stallings-C
Projected Rotation: Chris Archer, Joe Musgrove, Trevor Williams, Mitch Keller, Derek Holland
Closer: Keone Kela
Projected Record: 27-33
Thursday, July 16, 2020
Baseball at Long Last (AL Central)
From top to bottom, the AL Central might be the weakest division in baseball. Mainly because the bottom two teams--Detroit and Kansas City--are really bad. If this season was going to be the normal length, we might be looking at an 85-86 win division champion. As it is, the short season and regionalized schedule will help those top three teams, any of whom is capable of winning the division.
Don't get me wrong. The Twins are still the best of the five teams. They set a Major League record for home runs last season and made their lineup even deeper with the addition of Josh Donaldson. Cleveland's been trending downward and appears to be seriously thinking about trading Francisco Lindor, but they also have the strongest pitching in the division. And the White Sox have all the makings of being a spoiler.
So, even though it's not the strongest division, the AL Central still looks to be reasonably competitive at the top. That, unfortunately, is probably the only path to the postseason for those three teams, though. The Rays/Yankees non-AL East winner and the two teams in the West figure to be better positioned for the wild cards, but in a short season, you never know. And I have a feeling someone in the AL Central is gonna get off to a good start.
At the very least, we won't need to worry about 31-29 or 30-30 being good enough to win the division. Playing 20 games against the Tigers and Royals and another handful against the Pirates will help with that. Don't expect them to be starting the Division Series at home, though.
1. Minnesota Twins: The Twins won 101 games last season and, somewhat surprisingly, ran away with the division title. They did that almost entirely on the strength of the insane amount of home runs they hit. Which makes me wonder if that's actually sustainable or if last season was a fluke. They're likely going to hit a ridiculous number of homers again (they'll easily get over 100), but can they rely on winning games 7-5?
That'll really be up to their pitching staff. It's good, not great, which is why I don't want to say the Twins are the overwhelming favorites. Adding Kenta Maeda, frankly, doesn't make that much of a difference. And their bullpen, like their rotation, is good, not great. Good enough to win the division for the second straight year? Perhaps. Good enough to finally get out of the Division Series? Probably not.
Projected Lineup: Byron Buxton-CF, Mitch Garver-C, Josh Donaldson-3B, Nelson Cruz-DH, Eddie Rosario-LF, Miguel Sano-1B, Max Kepler-RF, Jorge Polanco-SS, Luis Arraez-2B
Projected Rotation: Jose Berrios, Jake Odorizzi, Kenta Maeda, Homer Bailey, Devin Smeltzer
Closer: Taylor Rogers
Projected Record: 34-26
2. Cleveland Indians: Will they or won't they? If the Indians are still in the mix at the trade deadline in mid-August, they'll probably try to make one last run before losing Lindor as a free agent. If they're not, it's very possible that they'll finally trade their franchise player after an offseason full of speculation. So, the first half of the season will be perhaps more important for the Indians than any other team.
And really, it'll be the pitching staff that decides whether Lindor ends the season in Cleveland or not. Because, even after trading Corey Kluber to Texas, the Indians have pitching in spades. Which is why I think they have a legitimate chance of knocking off Minnesota in the division race. The Indians have a better rotation, their bullpen is slightly better, and their lineup, while not as good as the Twins', can certainly hold its own. And don't forget, the Indians are better than at least six of the nine teams they'll be facing this season. That could make a huge difference, too. Whether or not they make the playoffs, they'll be in it until the end. Which means Lindor ends the season in an Indians uniform.
Projected Lineup: Oscar Mercado-CF, Jose Ramirez-3B, Francisco Lindor-SS, Carlos Santana-1B, Franmil Reyes-RF, Domingo Santana-DH, Jordan Luplow-LF, Roberto Perez-C, Cesar Hernandez-2B
Projected Rotation: Mike Clevinger, Shane Bieber, Carlos Carrasco, Adam Plutko, Jefry Rodriguez
Closer: Brad Hand
Projected Record: 31-29
3. Chicago White Sox: Every year there's that one team that's super active in free agency and it gets their fan base all excited about the upcoming season. It either works and they make a playoff run or it doesn't and everyone is left disappointed. Last year, that team was the Phillies. This year, it's the White Sox. They saw that this division is there for the taking, and they went all-in to try and grab it. And it just might pay off, too.
If there was one team I thought was going to get out to a fast start, it was this one. While I'm not sure if that would've been sustainable over 162 games, they don't have to worry about it. A 12-3/11-4 start would cover a quarter of the season and put them in a very good position the rest of the way. This White Sox team is plenty capable of doing that, too. Even if they don't, they're gonna give the Twins and Indians all they can handle. Make no mistake, though. Whether they're relevant in 2020 or not, the White Sox are going to be the team to beat in the AL Central in 2021 and beyond.
Projected Lineup: Tim Anderson-SS, Yoan Moncada-3B, Jose Abreu-1B, Yasmani Grandal-C, Edwin Encarnacion-DH, Luis Robert-CF, Nomar Mazara-RF, Eloy Jimenez-LF, Leury Garcia-2B
Projected Rotation: Lucas Giolito, Dallas Keuchel, Gio Gonzalez, Dylan Cease, Reynaldo Lopez
Closer: Alex Colome
Projected Record: 30-30
4. Kansas City Royals: It was just five years ago that the Kansas City Royals won the World Series. Seems like an eternity, doesn't it? (In fairness, the last four months have felt like an eternity, so anything before that might as well have been the 20th Century!) Only two key players from that team remain (Salvador Perez and Alex Gordon), as the Royals have officially entered another rebuild. The cupboard's not completely bare, though, and they're still significantly better than the Tigers.
Kansas City has the potential to be that type of team no one will want to play. They won't be good enough to be competitive, but they'll be just good enough to annoy one of the good teams. How annoying? is the question, and which team will they annoy? So, basically, the Royals will be the AL Central's answer to the Orioles and Marlins. They're not going to win the division, but they'll definitely have a say in who does. Because they're gonna go 6-4 against one of the top teams and 3-7 against another, and those three games could end up making the difference in what figures to be a tight race on top.
Projected Lineup: Whit Merrifield-CF, Adalberto Mondesi-SS, Jorge Soler-DH, Ryan O'Hearn-1B, Hunter Dozier-RF, Maikel Franco-3B, Alex Gordon-LF, Salvador Perez-C, Nicky Lopez-2B
Projected Rotation: Brad Keller, Danny Duffy, Jakob Junis, Mike Montgomery, Jorge Lopez
Closer: Ian Kennedy
Projected Record: 27-33
5. Detroit Tigers: Thanks to the pandemic and the season's delay, Miguel Cabrera's 3,000th hit and 500th home run will have to wait until next season (if not 2022). Which is probably a good thing, since no fans would be there to see it this year anyway. Yeah, that's really about all I've got on the Tigers. They aren't good and they know it. The only thing they'll be battling for is their second consecutive No. 1 pick in the draft (speaking of which, Spencer Torkelson has apparently been raking at camp, is it possible we'll see him this season?).
Detroit is probably slightly better than Baltimore, so I give the Orioles a slight edge in the race for the No. 1 pick in 2021. The Tigers do have some established veterans who are capable of at least keeping them competitive offensively. Problem is all of those established veterans are past their prime. None would still be considered a "star" (and that includes their future Hall of Famer, who has two maybe three years left, tops). This year is going to be a long one in Detroit. And as they drift further and further away from relevance, it leaves you shaking your head wondering how the Tigers were so good for so long, yet only won one pennant and zero World Series games. It'll be a while until they have the chance to win another.
Projected Lineup: Jacoby Jones-CF, Niko Goodrum-SS, Jeimer Candelario-3B, C.J. Cron-1B, Christin Stewart-LF, Miguel Cabrera-DH, Jonathan Schoop-2B, Cameron Maybin-RF, Austin Romine-C
Projected Rotation: Matthew Boyd, Jordan Zimmermann, Spencer Turnbull, Daniel Norris, Michael Fulmer
Closer: Joe Jimenez
Projected Record: 25-35
Don't get me wrong. The Twins are still the best of the five teams. They set a Major League record for home runs last season and made their lineup even deeper with the addition of Josh Donaldson. Cleveland's been trending downward and appears to be seriously thinking about trading Francisco Lindor, but they also have the strongest pitching in the division. And the White Sox have all the makings of being a spoiler.
So, even though it's not the strongest division, the AL Central still looks to be reasonably competitive at the top. That, unfortunately, is probably the only path to the postseason for those three teams, though. The Rays/Yankees non-AL East winner and the two teams in the West figure to be better positioned for the wild cards, but in a short season, you never know. And I have a feeling someone in the AL Central is gonna get off to a good start.
At the very least, we won't need to worry about 31-29 or 30-30 being good enough to win the division. Playing 20 games against the Tigers and Royals and another handful against the Pirates will help with that. Don't expect them to be starting the Division Series at home, though.
1. Minnesota Twins: The Twins won 101 games last season and, somewhat surprisingly, ran away with the division title. They did that almost entirely on the strength of the insane amount of home runs they hit. Which makes me wonder if that's actually sustainable or if last season was a fluke. They're likely going to hit a ridiculous number of homers again (they'll easily get over 100), but can they rely on winning games 7-5?
That'll really be up to their pitching staff. It's good, not great, which is why I don't want to say the Twins are the overwhelming favorites. Adding Kenta Maeda, frankly, doesn't make that much of a difference. And their bullpen, like their rotation, is good, not great. Good enough to win the division for the second straight year? Perhaps. Good enough to finally get out of the Division Series? Probably not.
Projected Lineup: Byron Buxton-CF, Mitch Garver-C, Josh Donaldson-3B, Nelson Cruz-DH, Eddie Rosario-LF, Miguel Sano-1B, Max Kepler-RF, Jorge Polanco-SS, Luis Arraez-2B
Projected Rotation: Jose Berrios, Jake Odorizzi, Kenta Maeda, Homer Bailey, Devin Smeltzer
Closer: Taylor Rogers
Projected Record: 34-26
2. Cleveland Indians: Will they or won't they? If the Indians are still in the mix at the trade deadline in mid-August, they'll probably try to make one last run before losing Lindor as a free agent. If they're not, it's very possible that they'll finally trade their franchise player after an offseason full of speculation. So, the first half of the season will be perhaps more important for the Indians than any other team.
And really, it'll be the pitching staff that decides whether Lindor ends the season in Cleveland or not. Because, even after trading Corey Kluber to Texas, the Indians have pitching in spades. Which is why I think they have a legitimate chance of knocking off Minnesota in the division race. The Indians have a better rotation, their bullpen is slightly better, and their lineup, while not as good as the Twins', can certainly hold its own. And don't forget, the Indians are better than at least six of the nine teams they'll be facing this season. That could make a huge difference, too. Whether or not they make the playoffs, they'll be in it until the end. Which means Lindor ends the season in an Indians uniform.
Projected Lineup: Oscar Mercado-CF, Jose Ramirez-3B, Francisco Lindor-SS, Carlos Santana-1B, Franmil Reyes-RF, Domingo Santana-DH, Jordan Luplow-LF, Roberto Perez-C, Cesar Hernandez-2B
Projected Rotation: Mike Clevinger, Shane Bieber, Carlos Carrasco, Adam Plutko, Jefry Rodriguez
Closer: Brad Hand
Projected Record: 31-29
3. Chicago White Sox: Every year there's that one team that's super active in free agency and it gets their fan base all excited about the upcoming season. It either works and they make a playoff run or it doesn't and everyone is left disappointed. Last year, that team was the Phillies. This year, it's the White Sox. They saw that this division is there for the taking, and they went all-in to try and grab it. And it just might pay off, too.
If there was one team I thought was going to get out to a fast start, it was this one. While I'm not sure if that would've been sustainable over 162 games, they don't have to worry about it. A 12-3/11-4 start would cover a quarter of the season and put them in a very good position the rest of the way. This White Sox team is plenty capable of doing that, too. Even if they don't, they're gonna give the Twins and Indians all they can handle. Make no mistake, though. Whether they're relevant in 2020 or not, the White Sox are going to be the team to beat in the AL Central in 2021 and beyond.
Projected Lineup: Tim Anderson-SS, Yoan Moncada-3B, Jose Abreu-1B, Yasmani Grandal-C, Edwin Encarnacion-DH, Luis Robert-CF, Nomar Mazara-RF, Eloy Jimenez-LF, Leury Garcia-2B
Projected Rotation: Lucas Giolito, Dallas Keuchel, Gio Gonzalez, Dylan Cease, Reynaldo Lopez
Closer: Alex Colome
Projected Record: 30-30
4. Kansas City Royals: It was just five years ago that the Kansas City Royals won the World Series. Seems like an eternity, doesn't it? (In fairness, the last four months have felt like an eternity, so anything before that might as well have been the 20th Century!) Only two key players from that team remain (Salvador Perez and Alex Gordon), as the Royals have officially entered another rebuild. The cupboard's not completely bare, though, and they're still significantly better than the Tigers.
Kansas City has the potential to be that type of team no one will want to play. They won't be good enough to be competitive, but they'll be just good enough to annoy one of the good teams. How annoying? is the question, and which team will they annoy? So, basically, the Royals will be the AL Central's answer to the Orioles and Marlins. They're not going to win the division, but they'll definitely have a say in who does. Because they're gonna go 6-4 against one of the top teams and 3-7 against another, and those three games could end up making the difference in what figures to be a tight race on top.
Projected Lineup: Whit Merrifield-CF, Adalberto Mondesi-SS, Jorge Soler-DH, Ryan O'Hearn-1B, Hunter Dozier-RF, Maikel Franco-3B, Alex Gordon-LF, Salvador Perez-C, Nicky Lopez-2B
Projected Rotation: Brad Keller, Danny Duffy, Jakob Junis, Mike Montgomery, Jorge Lopez
Closer: Ian Kennedy
Projected Record: 27-33
5. Detroit Tigers: Thanks to the pandemic and the season's delay, Miguel Cabrera's 3,000th hit and 500th home run will have to wait until next season (if not 2022). Which is probably a good thing, since no fans would be there to see it this year anyway. Yeah, that's really about all I've got on the Tigers. They aren't good and they know it. The only thing they'll be battling for is their second consecutive No. 1 pick in the draft (speaking of which, Spencer Torkelson has apparently been raking at camp, is it possible we'll see him this season?).
Detroit is probably slightly better than Baltimore, so I give the Orioles a slight edge in the race for the No. 1 pick in 2021. The Tigers do have some established veterans who are capable of at least keeping them competitive offensively. Problem is all of those established veterans are past their prime. None would still be considered a "star" (and that includes their future Hall of Famer, who has two maybe three years left, tops). This year is going to be a long one in Detroit. And as they drift further and further away from relevance, it leaves you shaking your head wondering how the Tigers were so good for so long, yet only won one pennant and zero World Series games. It'll be a while until they have the chance to win another.
Projected Lineup: Jacoby Jones-CF, Niko Goodrum-SS, Jeimer Candelario-3B, C.J. Cron-1B, Christin Stewart-LF, Miguel Cabrera-DH, Jonathan Schoop-2B, Cameron Maybin-RF, Austin Romine-C
Projected Rotation: Matthew Boyd, Jordan Zimmermann, Spencer Turnbull, Daniel Norris, Michael Fulmer
Closer: Joe Jimenez
Projected Record: 25-35
Wednesday, July 15, 2020
Baseball at Long Last (NL East)
There's no denying that the NL East is the most competitive division in baseball. You could pencil the Marlins into the five-spot, put the other four in a hat, pull them out, and that could very well end up being the final standings. And you could do it again, get different results, and those could be the final standings. Basically what I'm saying here is that those four teams are pretty much interchangeable. The differences between them are that slim.
That was also the case last season. All the buzz was about the Phillies and their offseason additions. They ended up missing the playoffs. The Braves won the division for the second straight year, but lost to St. Louis in the playoffs. And the Nationals lost Bryce Harper, started 19-31, and ended up winning the World Series. Oh yeah, and the Mets had both the Cy Young winner and Rookie of the Year.
With the short season and the DH in play, the NL East figures to be even more of a crap shoot in 2020. You can make a legitimate case for any of those top four teams as the division champion. The Braves and Phillies both got significantly better, while the Mets and Nationals still have their dominant pitching.
Whoever ends up winning the division isn't going to run away with it. In fact, I can see this being a four-way race all season. And, just like how the Orioles won't be competitive but will still be relevant in that they'll have a say in who wins the AL East, the Marlins will have a major bearing on who wins the NL East. The team that goes 8-2 against Miami will probably make the playoffs. The team that goes 5-5 likely won't.
1. Atlanta Braves: As competitive as this division figures to be, I've still gotta give the two-time reigning NL East champs the slight edge. The Braves lost Josh Donaldson but still have the deepest lineup in the division. And that's even without Nick Markakis, who opted out of this season (he probably wasn't going to play that much anyway), or possibly Freddie Freeman, who missed the start of Summer Camp with COVID. They just added Yasiel Puig, too, which makes their lineup that much deeper.
Pitching-wise, Atlanta has at best the third-best rotation in the division. Which isn't to say it's bad. They've got a very good 1-2 in Mike Soroka and Mike Foltynewicz, and basically swapped Dallas Keuchel for Cole Hamels, which gives them three solid starters. But, their rotation still isn't anywhere near the same caliber as the Nationals or Mets. If the Braves don't win the division, their pitching will likely be the reason why. Either way, they look like a playoff team, though. Their goal should be to finally get out of the Division Series.
Projected Lineup: Ozzie Albies-2B, Dansby Swanson-SS, Ronald Acuna Jr.-RF, Freddie Freeman-1B, Marcell Ozuna-LF, Yasiel Puig-DH, Johan Camargo-3B, Travis d'Arnaud-C, Ender Inciarte-CF
Projected Rotation: Mike Soroka, Mike Foltynewicz, Cole Hamels, Max Fried, Sean Newcomb
Closer: Mark Melancon
Projected Record: 34-26
2. Philadelphia Phillies: Let's be clear about something regarding the 2019 Phillies. It's not Bryce Harper's fault they didn't make the playoffs. Yes, his contract is ridiculous, but he played 157 games and put up his regular Harper-esque numbers. Personally, I blame Gabe Kapler. He simply isn't a good manager. Joe Girardi is, so that's an obvious upgrade in that department. The addition of Didi Gregorius and a healthy Andrew McCutchen will help, too. So will the DH, since that's the only position Jay Bruce should be playing at this point in his career.
Philadelphia also improved its pitching staff by bringing in free agent Zack Wheeler, who gives them four solid starters, a must in this pitching-rich division. The questions are in the bullpen, though. Regardless, a competent manager is going to work wonders for this team. The Phillies knew they weren't far off and plugged in the few holes they had, while handing the reins to a manager who actually knows what he's doing. That should be enough to add up to a playoff spot, even in the NL East.
Projected Lineup: Andrew McCutchen-LF, J.T. Realmuto-C, Bryce Harper-RF, Rhys Hoskins-1B, Jay Bruce-DH, Didi Gregorius-SS, Jean Segura-2B, Scott Kingery-3B, Adam Haseley-CF
Projected Rotation: Aaron Nola, Zack Wheeler, Jake Arietta, Zach Eflin, Nick Pivetta
Closer: Hector Neris
Projected Record: 33-27 (Wild Card)
3. Washington Nationals: Be honest. Did anybody think last season would be the year the Nationals finally won? They've always had the dominant pitching, but last year's when it all came together, despite losing their best position player. This year, they lost their best position player again, and they've had an inordinate number of players opt out due to health concerns. But a repeat is still possible (as long as they don't start 19-31 again). Why? Because they've got the best pitching in the game.
They missed out on re-signing Anthony Rendon, in part because they were more concerned with keeping World Series MVP Stephen Strasburg in DC. Mission accomplished. Strasburg stayed put and that ridiculous 1-2-3 remains in tact. And, since the season is starting three-and-a-half months late, we also don't have to wonder how much of a bearing all of those postseason innings will have on their arms. Better still, they're only making 12 starts each, so they can let it loose from the get-go. As long as Max, Stras and Corbin (the best No. 3 starter in baseball) stay healthy, the Nats will be in the postseason discussion. All they need to do is hit a little.
Projected Lineup: Trea Turner-SS, Adam Eaton-RF, Juan Soto-LF, Eric Thames-1B, Howie Kendrick-DH, Carter Kieboom-3B, Starlin Castro-2B, Victor Robles-CF, Kurt Suzuki-C
Projected Rotation: Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, Patrick Corbin, Anibal Sanchez, Austin Voth
Closer: Sean Doolittle
Projected Record: 32-28
4. New York Mets: Other than maybe the Dodgers, was there any National League team better equipped to add the DH than the Mets? Last season, they had about 11 starters that they were trying to cram into eight lineup spots, and ended up playing some guys out of position just to get their bats in the lineup. That didn't even include Yoenis Cespedes, who will likely fill the DH spot. If the Mets can keep all these guys healthy, they'll have the hitting to match their dominant pitching.
Even without Noah Syndergaard, their starting rotation is among the best in the game. And losing Syndergaard actually saved them from making a tough decision, since they otherwise would've had six starters for five rotation spots. It all starts and ends with Jacob deGrom obviously, but the guys behind him aren't exactly slouches. And the bullpen is much improved, with Dellin Betances moving across town to give them another power arm in front of Edwin Diaz. With all this pitching talent and a deep lineup, the Mets certainly have all the makings of a playoff team. As long as they keep everyone healthy.
Projected Lineup: Jeff McNeil-3B, Brandon Nimmo-CF, Pete Alonso-1B, Robinson Cano-2B, Yoenis Cespedes-DH, Michael Conforto-RF, J.D. Davis-LF, Wilson Ramos-C, Amed Rosario-SS
Projected Rotation: Jacob deGrom, Marcus Stroman, Rick Porcello, Steven Matz, Michael Wacha
Closer: Edwin Diaz
Projected Record: 31-29
5. Miami Marlins: The Marlins are starting to move in the right direction. There's definitely some more talent in Miami this season than there was in 2019. Their problem, however, is the fact that the other four teams in the division are significantly better than them. So, if they manage to finish anywhere other than last place, it'll be considered a major achievement.
Sandy Alcantara is a legitimate No. 1 starter, even he's the fifth-best No. 1 in the division. No. 2 Caleb Smith isn't bad, either. And their lineup is going to be much deeper with the addition of former Brewers Jesus Aguilar and Jonathan Villar. That's why I think the Marlins are in slightly better shape than their closest comparison--the Orioles. Miami has some veterans to mix in with those young guys like Brian Anderson and Lewis Brinson. They'll be bad. There's no denying that. But they'll give one of the four teams above them fits, so the Marlins are going to have a very big role in determining the NL East champion.
Projected Lineup: Lewis Brinson-CF, Jonathan Villar-3B, Jesus Aguilar-DH, Brian Anderson-RF, Corey Dickerson-LF, Garrett Cooper-1B, Jorge Alfaro-C, Miguel Rojas-SS, Isan Diaz-2B
Projected Rotation: Sandy Alcantara, Caleb Smith, Pablo Lopez, Jose Urena, Jordan Yamamoto
Closer: Drew Steckenrider
Projected Record: 22-38
That was also the case last season. All the buzz was about the Phillies and their offseason additions. They ended up missing the playoffs. The Braves won the division for the second straight year, but lost to St. Louis in the playoffs. And the Nationals lost Bryce Harper, started 19-31, and ended up winning the World Series. Oh yeah, and the Mets had both the Cy Young winner and Rookie of the Year.
With the short season and the DH in play, the NL East figures to be even more of a crap shoot in 2020. You can make a legitimate case for any of those top four teams as the division champion. The Braves and Phillies both got significantly better, while the Mets and Nationals still have their dominant pitching.
Whoever ends up winning the division isn't going to run away with it. In fact, I can see this being a four-way race all season. And, just like how the Orioles won't be competitive but will still be relevant in that they'll have a say in who wins the AL East, the Marlins will have a major bearing on who wins the NL East. The team that goes 8-2 against Miami will probably make the playoffs. The team that goes 5-5 likely won't.
1. Atlanta Braves: As competitive as this division figures to be, I've still gotta give the two-time reigning NL East champs the slight edge. The Braves lost Josh Donaldson but still have the deepest lineup in the division. And that's even without Nick Markakis, who opted out of this season (he probably wasn't going to play that much anyway), or possibly Freddie Freeman, who missed the start of Summer Camp with COVID. They just added Yasiel Puig, too, which makes their lineup that much deeper.
Pitching-wise, Atlanta has at best the third-best rotation in the division. Which isn't to say it's bad. They've got a very good 1-2 in Mike Soroka and Mike Foltynewicz, and basically swapped Dallas Keuchel for Cole Hamels, which gives them three solid starters. But, their rotation still isn't anywhere near the same caliber as the Nationals or Mets. If the Braves don't win the division, their pitching will likely be the reason why. Either way, they look like a playoff team, though. Their goal should be to finally get out of the Division Series.
Projected Lineup: Ozzie Albies-2B, Dansby Swanson-SS, Ronald Acuna Jr.-RF, Freddie Freeman-1B, Marcell Ozuna-LF, Yasiel Puig-DH, Johan Camargo-3B, Travis d'Arnaud-C, Ender Inciarte-CF
Projected Rotation: Mike Soroka, Mike Foltynewicz, Cole Hamels, Max Fried, Sean Newcomb
Closer: Mark Melancon
Projected Record: 34-26
2. Philadelphia Phillies: Let's be clear about something regarding the 2019 Phillies. It's not Bryce Harper's fault they didn't make the playoffs. Yes, his contract is ridiculous, but he played 157 games and put up his regular Harper-esque numbers. Personally, I blame Gabe Kapler. He simply isn't a good manager. Joe Girardi is, so that's an obvious upgrade in that department. The addition of Didi Gregorius and a healthy Andrew McCutchen will help, too. So will the DH, since that's the only position Jay Bruce should be playing at this point in his career.
Philadelphia also improved its pitching staff by bringing in free agent Zack Wheeler, who gives them four solid starters, a must in this pitching-rich division. The questions are in the bullpen, though. Regardless, a competent manager is going to work wonders for this team. The Phillies knew they weren't far off and plugged in the few holes they had, while handing the reins to a manager who actually knows what he's doing. That should be enough to add up to a playoff spot, even in the NL East.
Projected Lineup: Andrew McCutchen-LF, J.T. Realmuto-C, Bryce Harper-RF, Rhys Hoskins-1B, Jay Bruce-DH, Didi Gregorius-SS, Jean Segura-2B, Scott Kingery-3B, Adam Haseley-CF
Projected Rotation: Aaron Nola, Zack Wheeler, Jake Arietta, Zach Eflin, Nick Pivetta
Closer: Hector Neris
Projected Record: 33-27 (Wild Card)
3. Washington Nationals: Be honest. Did anybody think last season would be the year the Nationals finally won? They've always had the dominant pitching, but last year's when it all came together, despite losing their best position player. This year, they lost their best position player again, and they've had an inordinate number of players opt out due to health concerns. But a repeat is still possible (as long as they don't start 19-31 again). Why? Because they've got the best pitching in the game.
They missed out on re-signing Anthony Rendon, in part because they were more concerned with keeping World Series MVP Stephen Strasburg in DC. Mission accomplished. Strasburg stayed put and that ridiculous 1-2-3 remains in tact. And, since the season is starting three-and-a-half months late, we also don't have to wonder how much of a bearing all of those postseason innings will have on their arms. Better still, they're only making 12 starts each, so they can let it loose from the get-go. As long as Max, Stras and Corbin (the best No. 3 starter in baseball) stay healthy, the Nats will be in the postseason discussion. All they need to do is hit a little.
Projected Lineup: Trea Turner-SS, Adam Eaton-RF, Juan Soto-LF, Eric Thames-1B, Howie Kendrick-DH, Carter Kieboom-3B, Starlin Castro-2B, Victor Robles-CF, Kurt Suzuki-C
Projected Rotation: Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, Patrick Corbin, Anibal Sanchez, Austin Voth
Closer: Sean Doolittle
Projected Record: 32-28
4. New York Mets: Other than maybe the Dodgers, was there any National League team better equipped to add the DH than the Mets? Last season, they had about 11 starters that they were trying to cram into eight lineup spots, and ended up playing some guys out of position just to get their bats in the lineup. That didn't even include Yoenis Cespedes, who will likely fill the DH spot. If the Mets can keep all these guys healthy, they'll have the hitting to match their dominant pitching.
Even without Noah Syndergaard, their starting rotation is among the best in the game. And losing Syndergaard actually saved them from making a tough decision, since they otherwise would've had six starters for five rotation spots. It all starts and ends with Jacob deGrom obviously, but the guys behind him aren't exactly slouches. And the bullpen is much improved, with Dellin Betances moving across town to give them another power arm in front of Edwin Diaz. With all this pitching talent and a deep lineup, the Mets certainly have all the makings of a playoff team. As long as they keep everyone healthy.
Projected Lineup: Jeff McNeil-3B, Brandon Nimmo-CF, Pete Alonso-1B, Robinson Cano-2B, Yoenis Cespedes-DH, Michael Conforto-RF, J.D. Davis-LF, Wilson Ramos-C, Amed Rosario-SS
Projected Rotation: Jacob deGrom, Marcus Stroman, Rick Porcello, Steven Matz, Michael Wacha
Closer: Edwin Diaz
Projected Record: 31-29
5. Miami Marlins: The Marlins are starting to move in the right direction. There's definitely some more talent in Miami this season than there was in 2019. Their problem, however, is the fact that the other four teams in the division are significantly better than them. So, if they manage to finish anywhere other than last place, it'll be considered a major achievement.
Sandy Alcantara is a legitimate No. 1 starter, even he's the fifth-best No. 1 in the division. No. 2 Caleb Smith isn't bad, either. And their lineup is going to be much deeper with the addition of former Brewers Jesus Aguilar and Jonathan Villar. That's why I think the Marlins are in slightly better shape than their closest comparison--the Orioles. Miami has some veterans to mix in with those young guys like Brian Anderson and Lewis Brinson. They'll be bad. There's no denying that. But they'll give one of the four teams above them fits, so the Marlins are going to have a very big role in determining the NL East champion.
Projected Lineup: Lewis Brinson-CF, Jonathan Villar-3B, Jesus Aguilar-DH, Brian Anderson-RF, Corey Dickerson-LF, Garrett Cooper-1B, Jorge Alfaro-C, Miguel Rojas-SS, Isan Diaz-2B
Projected Rotation: Sandy Alcantara, Caleb Smith, Pablo Lopez, Jose Urena, Jordan Yamamoto
Closer: Drew Steckenrider
Projected Record: 22-38
Monday, July 13, 2020
Baseball at Long Last (AL East)
It's been three and a half long months! But there's finally light at the end of the tunnel! Opening Day 2.0 is on the horizon! And that means, it's finally time for my annual baseball preview. We'll start today with the AL East and run through all six divisions leading into the season opener between the Yankees and Nationals on July 23.
And this season is going to be one of the toughest to project. Because things are a lot different now than they would've been had they started on time. Players who were expected to miss significant time will be ready to go for the 60-game sprint, which changes the whole dynamic entirely. Two weeks could make or break the season, so you'd better not get off to a bad start!
The schedule could end up making a huge difference, too. Since you're only playing your own division and the corresponding interleague division, your opponents are going to matter. And that's going to make it tough for Boston or Toronto, who would otherwise be outside playoff contenders in a 162-game season. They have to play 10 games each against the Yankees and Rays, as well as four good NL East teams. Just reaching .500 in the shortened season will be an achievement in the shortened season.
Regardless of how long the season is, the Yankees and Rays were going to be the favorites in the AL East, if not the entire American League. The division should be a battle between the two of them, although the other three will have a big impact on which one actually does. Whoever has the better record in the 30 games against Boston, Toronto and Baltimore should be the No. 1 seed in the AL. The other will be hosting the Wild Card Game, which neither of them wants.
1. New York Yankees: No team benefited more from the delay than the Yankees. Aaron Judge, Aaron Hicks, Giancarlo Stanton and James Paxton weren't going to be available on the original Opening Day. Now they are. Although, now they're dealing with a different group of players being out, as DJ LeMahieu and Aroldis Chapman both have COVID and Masahiro Tanaka was hit by a Stanton line drive during an intrasquad game.
As they proved last year, though, the Yankees' depth is unmatched. Throw in the fact that they now have a legit No. 1 starter in Gerrit Cole, and it isn't crazy to think they could win 40 games. As it is, I think they'll fall a bit short of that target. Either way, they're the clear favorites. And their schedule over the final three weeks is so soft that if they have any sort of a cushion after 40 games, it's gonna be very tough for anybody to catch them.
Projected Lineup: Brett Gardner-LF, Aaron Judge-RF, Giancarlo Stanton-DH, Gleyber Torres-SS, Gary Sanchez-C, Luke Voit-1B, Aaron Hicks-CF, Gio Urshela-3B, Tyler Wade-2B
Projected Rotation: Gerrit Cole, James Paxton, Masahiro Tanaka, J.A. Happ, Jordan Montgomery
Closer: Zack Britton
Projected Record: 36-24
2. Tampa Bay Rays: For a team that was all about the "opener" two years ago, the Rays sure have built themselves a formidable starting rotation (further proof that they did it because of a lack of depth more than anything else). And that rotation should be what leads Tampa Bay back to the playoffs. They also seem to be the only team capable of challenging the Yankees for division supremacy. It isn't even that crazy to think they could win the AL East if things break their way.
However, there's one major difference between the two. Tampa Bay's lineup is nowhere near as good as the Yankees'. Which is why the Rays are probably looking at a wild card. Make no mistake, though. This is clearly the second-best team in the AL East. And with that pitching staff, they're not gonna need to outscore teams. Expect a lot of 3-1 and 4-2 wins. Will it be enough to top the Yankees? Probably not. Will it be enough to make the playoffs? Most likely.
Projected Lineup: Kevin Keirmaier-CF, Brandon Lowe-2B, Austin Meadows-RF, Jose Martinez-DH, Hunter Renfroe-LF, Yandy Diaz-3B, Ji-Man Choi-1B, Willy Adames-SS, Mike Zunino-C
Projected Rotation: Blake Snell, Charlie Morton, Tyler Glasnow, Yonny Chirinos, Ryan Yarbrough
Closer: Diego Castillo
Projected Record: 34-26 (Wild Card)
3. Boston Red Sox: Let's get one thing straight about the Red Sox. They're not gonna challenge the Yankees and Rays this season. They know this. But they haven't slipped into Orioles/Marlins/Tigers territory either. So, for all the dire projections talking about how "bad" Boston is this season, it's simply not true. The Red Sox might've traded Mookie Betts, the second-best player in the game, but they still have a formidable lineup that's going to keep them in games night after night. I even think they have the chance to play spoiler.
Boston's best chance for making the postseason went away when MLB opted not to expand the playoff field this season, though. Their pitching simply isn't good enough. Their pitching wasn't good enough last season, when they had Chris Sale and David Price. This year, the rotation is anchored by Eduardo Rodriguez and Nathan Eovaldi. Needless to say, that's more than a bit of a downgrade. And don't get me started on their bullpen! Brandon Workman's not exactly what you'd call an "A-list" closer. I'll just leave it at that.
Projected Lineup: Jackie Bradley Jr.-CF, Andrew Benintendi-LF, Xander Bogaerts-SS, J.D. Martinez-DH, Rafael Devers-3B, Alex Verdugo-RF, Mitch Moreland-1B, Christian Vazquez-C, Jose Peraza-2B
Projected Rotation: Eduardo Rodriguez, Nathan Eovaldi, Martin Perez, Ryan Weber, Collin McHugh
Closer: Brandon Workman
Projected Record: 29-31
4. Toronto Blue Jays: Like the Red Sox, the Blue Jays saw their best hopes of making the postseason disappear when the playoff field wasn't expanded. And their best chance of being a spoiler went away when the season shrank by 100 games. Over 162 games, Toronto's young lineup would've been a nightmare to face. Over 60, it's far less scary.
There's also the issue of where the Blue Jays are going to play. They still aren't sure whether they'll be able to play in Toronto or not. Their Spring Training complex in Florida is probably out for obvious reasons, so it seems very possible they'll be playing at least some of their games at their Triple A facility in Buffalo (which is a fine venue). Either way, they're probably a season or two away from being true contenders in the AL East. I absolutely love the fact that they've already moved Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to first base, too. That's going to make them better across the board.
Projected Lineup: Bo Bichette-SS, Cavan Biggio-2B, Vladimir Guerrero Jr.-1B, Randal Grichuk-CF, Lourdes Gurriel Jr.-LF, Rowdy Tellez-DH, Teoscar Hernandez-RF, Brandon Drury-3B, Danny Jansen-C
Projected Rotation: Hyun-Jin Ryu, Tanner Roark, Matt Shoemaker, Chase Anderson, Shun Yamaguchi
Closer: Ken Giles
Projected Record: 27-33
5. Baltimore Orioles: At least they can't lose 100 games this year! Although, they might not've even in a full season. Because the Orioles are definitely getting better. They're still the fifth-best team in the AL East by a significant margin. But they have a chance of being more competitive this season. Or, I should say, they had a chance. Because no team was hurt by the regional scheduling more than the Orioles, who along with the Marlins will be the opponent each of the other eight looks to beat up on.
I'm actually curious about this season's Orioles, too. Will Adley Rutschmann, last year's No. 1 pick, make his Major League debut? I think it's likely he will, if for no other reason than the fact that he won't see any live game action until April if they don't. So, the cancellation of the Minor League season combined with Baltimore likely being out of the race will result in Rutschmann playing for the Orioles at some point in September. There's no reason for him not to. So they might as well do what the Blue Jays did last year and take a look at their younger guys in game conditions, just to see what they have.
Projected Lineup: Hanser Alberto-2B, Jose Iglesias-SS, Trey Mancini-RF, Renato Nunez-DH, Rio Ruiz-3B, Anthony Santander-LF, Austin Hays-CF, Chris Davis-1B, Pedro Severino-C
Projected Rotation: John Means, Alex Cobb, Asher Wojciechowski, Wade LeBlanc, Tommy Milone
Closer: Mychal Givens
Projected Record: 22-38
And this season is going to be one of the toughest to project. Because things are a lot different now than they would've been had they started on time. Players who were expected to miss significant time will be ready to go for the 60-game sprint, which changes the whole dynamic entirely. Two weeks could make or break the season, so you'd better not get off to a bad start!
The schedule could end up making a huge difference, too. Since you're only playing your own division and the corresponding interleague division, your opponents are going to matter. And that's going to make it tough for Boston or Toronto, who would otherwise be outside playoff contenders in a 162-game season. They have to play 10 games each against the Yankees and Rays, as well as four good NL East teams. Just reaching .500 in the shortened season will be an achievement in the shortened season.
Regardless of how long the season is, the Yankees and Rays were going to be the favorites in the AL East, if not the entire American League. The division should be a battle between the two of them, although the other three will have a big impact on which one actually does. Whoever has the better record in the 30 games against Boston, Toronto and Baltimore should be the No. 1 seed in the AL. The other will be hosting the Wild Card Game, which neither of them wants.
1. New York Yankees: No team benefited more from the delay than the Yankees. Aaron Judge, Aaron Hicks, Giancarlo Stanton and James Paxton weren't going to be available on the original Opening Day. Now they are. Although, now they're dealing with a different group of players being out, as DJ LeMahieu and Aroldis Chapman both have COVID and Masahiro Tanaka was hit by a Stanton line drive during an intrasquad game.
As they proved last year, though, the Yankees' depth is unmatched. Throw in the fact that they now have a legit No. 1 starter in Gerrit Cole, and it isn't crazy to think they could win 40 games. As it is, I think they'll fall a bit short of that target. Either way, they're the clear favorites. And their schedule over the final three weeks is so soft that if they have any sort of a cushion after 40 games, it's gonna be very tough for anybody to catch them.
Projected Lineup: Brett Gardner-LF, Aaron Judge-RF, Giancarlo Stanton-DH, Gleyber Torres-SS, Gary Sanchez-C, Luke Voit-1B, Aaron Hicks-CF, Gio Urshela-3B, Tyler Wade-2B
Projected Rotation: Gerrit Cole, James Paxton, Masahiro Tanaka, J.A. Happ, Jordan Montgomery
Closer: Zack Britton
Projected Record: 36-24
2. Tampa Bay Rays: For a team that was all about the "opener" two years ago, the Rays sure have built themselves a formidable starting rotation (further proof that they did it because of a lack of depth more than anything else). And that rotation should be what leads Tampa Bay back to the playoffs. They also seem to be the only team capable of challenging the Yankees for division supremacy. It isn't even that crazy to think they could win the AL East if things break their way.
However, there's one major difference between the two. Tampa Bay's lineup is nowhere near as good as the Yankees'. Which is why the Rays are probably looking at a wild card. Make no mistake, though. This is clearly the second-best team in the AL East. And with that pitching staff, they're not gonna need to outscore teams. Expect a lot of 3-1 and 4-2 wins. Will it be enough to top the Yankees? Probably not. Will it be enough to make the playoffs? Most likely.
Projected Lineup: Kevin Keirmaier-CF, Brandon Lowe-2B, Austin Meadows-RF, Jose Martinez-DH, Hunter Renfroe-LF, Yandy Diaz-3B, Ji-Man Choi-1B, Willy Adames-SS, Mike Zunino-C
Projected Rotation: Blake Snell, Charlie Morton, Tyler Glasnow, Yonny Chirinos, Ryan Yarbrough
Closer: Diego Castillo
Projected Record: 34-26 (Wild Card)
3. Boston Red Sox: Let's get one thing straight about the Red Sox. They're not gonna challenge the Yankees and Rays this season. They know this. But they haven't slipped into Orioles/Marlins/Tigers territory either. So, for all the dire projections talking about how "bad" Boston is this season, it's simply not true. The Red Sox might've traded Mookie Betts, the second-best player in the game, but they still have a formidable lineup that's going to keep them in games night after night. I even think they have the chance to play spoiler.
Boston's best chance for making the postseason went away when MLB opted not to expand the playoff field this season, though. Their pitching simply isn't good enough. Their pitching wasn't good enough last season, when they had Chris Sale and David Price. This year, the rotation is anchored by Eduardo Rodriguez and Nathan Eovaldi. Needless to say, that's more than a bit of a downgrade. And don't get me started on their bullpen! Brandon Workman's not exactly what you'd call an "A-list" closer. I'll just leave it at that.
Projected Lineup: Jackie Bradley Jr.-CF, Andrew Benintendi-LF, Xander Bogaerts-SS, J.D. Martinez-DH, Rafael Devers-3B, Alex Verdugo-RF, Mitch Moreland-1B, Christian Vazquez-C, Jose Peraza-2B
Projected Rotation: Eduardo Rodriguez, Nathan Eovaldi, Martin Perez, Ryan Weber, Collin McHugh
Closer: Brandon Workman
Projected Record: 29-31
4. Toronto Blue Jays: Like the Red Sox, the Blue Jays saw their best hopes of making the postseason disappear when the playoff field wasn't expanded. And their best chance of being a spoiler went away when the season shrank by 100 games. Over 162 games, Toronto's young lineup would've been a nightmare to face. Over 60, it's far less scary.
There's also the issue of where the Blue Jays are going to play. They still aren't sure whether they'll be able to play in Toronto or not. Their Spring Training complex in Florida is probably out for obvious reasons, so it seems very possible they'll be playing at least some of their games at their Triple A facility in Buffalo (which is a fine venue). Either way, they're probably a season or two away from being true contenders in the AL East. I absolutely love the fact that they've already moved Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to first base, too. That's going to make them better across the board.
Projected Lineup: Bo Bichette-SS, Cavan Biggio-2B, Vladimir Guerrero Jr.-1B, Randal Grichuk-CF, Lourdes Gurriel Jr.-LF, Rowdy Tellez-DH, Teoscar Hernandez-RF, Brandon Drury-3B, Danny Jansen-C
Projected Rotation: Hyun-Jin Ryu, Tanner Roark, Matt Shoemaker, Chase Anderson, Shun Yamaguchi
Closer: Ken Giles
Projected Record: 27-33
5. Baltimore Orioles: At least they can't lose 100 games this year! Although, they might not've even in a full season. Because the Orioles are definitely getting better. They're still the fifth-best team in the AL East by a significant margin. But they have a chance of being more competitive this season. Or, I should say, they had a chance. Because no team was hurt by the regional scheduling more than the Orioles, who along with the Marlins will be the opponent each of the other eight looks to beat up on.
I'm actually curious about this season's Orioles, too. Will Adley Rutschmann, last year's No. 1 pick, make his Major League debut? I think it's likely he will, if for no other reason than the fact that he won't see any live game action until April if they don't. So, the cancellation of the Minor League season combined with Baltimore likely being out of the race will result in Rutschmann playing for the Orioles at some point in September. There's no reason for him not to. So they might as well do what the Blue Jays did last year and take a look at their younger guys in game conditions, just to see what they have.
Projected Lineup: Hanser Alberto-2B, Jose Iglesias-SS, Trey Mancini-RF, Renato Nunez-DH, Rio Ruiz-3B, Anthony Santander-LF, Austin Hays-CF, Chris Davis-1B, Pedro Severino-C
Projected Rotation: John Means, Alex Cobb, Asher Wojciechowski, Wade LeBlanc, Tommy Milone
Closer: Mychal Givens
Projected Record: 22-38
Sunday, July 12, 2020
Magical Midsummer Moments
This weekend was supposed to mark the start of baseball's annual midsummer celebration. The All*Star Game promised to be something special this year, too. It was set to be held at Dodger Stadium for the first time in 40 years, so Hollywood's bright lights would've been shining on the game's finest players, the home team would've been well represented, and Vin Scully would've been involved in some way.
But, since this is 2020, none of that will happen. The season itself hasn't even started yet! Meanwhile, the All*Star Game (just like everything else) became a victim of this hellish year. The Dodgers were given 2022 as compensation, but we won't be seeing hometown favorite Mike Trout digging in against hometown favorite Clayton Kershaw (who'd finally be making his first All*Star start!) to get things started in the Southern California sunshine.
That image reminds me of a great All*Star moment that happened in Southern California--Bo Jackson's leadoff home run in 1989. Bo's homer is one of the first classic All*Star moments that I can truly remember watching live. There have been plenty of others in the nearly 90-year history of the All*Star Game, too. So many, in fact, that I had trouble narrowing down a list of my favorites to just 15. As a result, I've got five honorable mentions to go along with my top 15.
Honorable Mention: Al Rosen hits two HRs at home ('54); Stan Musial's 12th inning walk-off HR ('55); Baseball returns after the strike ('81); Randy Johnson & John Kruk ('93); Ichiro's inside-the-park HR ('07)
Now on to the top 15. (Please note that these moments are just from the All*Star Game itself. No Josh Hamilton or Aaron Judge or Pete Alonso in the Home Run Derby.)
15. Dave Parker's Throws ('79): Dave Parker is probably the only player ever to win All*Star MVP strictly because of what he did on defense. But that's exactly what happened in 1979. He had two outfield assists...in consecutive innings!...cutting down a runner at third to end the seventh and the potential go-ahead run at the plate (on the fly!) in the eighth.
14. Torii Hunter Robs Barry Bonds ('02): The 2002 All*Star Game didn't have the best ending. And the less we say about the controversial tie, the better. But that doesn't mean the game didn't have any highlights. On the contrary, Hunter's robbing Bonds of a homer (and the playful response by Bonds between innings) is one of the most tremendous defensive plays in All*Star history. And, who knows, if that ball does go out, maybe the finish isn't so controversial.
13. Cal Ripken Moves to Short ('01): Cal Ripken had a pretty memorable All*Star sendoff in 2001, homering in his first at-bat and winning MVP. But my favorite Ripken moment from that game came at the beginning. He was voted in as the AL's starting third baseman, but starting shortstop A-Rod went to third and convinced Cal to switch positions with him, letting Ripken play an inning at the position he helped redefine. (Little did we know that A-Rod would become a third baseman permanently three years later.)
12. Johnny Callison Walk-Off HR ('64): It wasn't the first walk-off home run in All*Star Game history, but it was one of the most dramatic. In the only All*Star Game ever played at Shea Stadium, the AL had a 4-3 lead going into the bottom of the ninth. After Willie Mays scored on an error to tie the game, Callison ended it with a dramatic two-out, three-run homer to right.
11. Bo Jackson Leadoff HR ('89): As I mentioned, Bo Jackson's leadoff homer in 1989 is one of the first truly memorable All*Star Game moments I can remember. Tony La Russa wanted to cash in on Bo's popularity by having him bat leadoff. I'd say that was a good decision! He took the first pitch and crushed it to center. Wade Boggs followed with a home run of his own, as the AL went back-to-back to start the game, all with Ronald Reagan in the booth!
10. Exit Sandman ('13): How was it possible not to get chills in 2013 when the bullpen door swung open and "Enter Sandman" started blaring over the sound system? Then Mariano Rivera trotted out to the mound, where he was all alone, basking in the respect and adoration that 19 years as the greatest closer in history warranted. The fact that it all happened in New York made it even better. (And of course he threw a perfect inning to win MVP honors.)
9. National League Comeback ('94): Some people consider the 1994 All*Star Game to be one of the best, if not THE best, ever. The AL entered with a six-game winning streak and it looked like that would hit seven when they took a 7-5 lead into the bottom of the ninth with Hall of Fame closer Lee Smith on the mound. Fred McGriff tied it with a two-run bomb, though, then the NL won it when Tony Gwynn beat the throw home on Moises Alou's double in the 10th. We all know what happened a month later, but we're not gonna talk about that.
8. Babe Ruth Homers In the 1st All*Star Game ('33): Talk about a way to validate an idea! The greatest players in the game all on the same field for an exhibition game between the two leagues. In 1933, no one had any idea what it would become. Enter Babe Ruth. Of course he hit the first hoem run in All*Star Game history. Would you expect anything less from the most famous player in the sport (now and then)?
7. Carl Hubbell's 5 Consecutive Strikeouts ('34): A year later, Ruth was involved in another memorable All*Star Game moment. National League starter Carl Hubbell struck him out in the first inning. Then Lou Gehrig. Then Jimmie Foxx. Then in the second, he struck out Al Simmons and Joe Cronin. Five consecutive strikeouts. All Hall of Famers. (After a Bill Dickey single, Hubbell also struck out AL pitcher Lefty Gomez, another Hall of Famer.)
6. Yankee Stadium Says Goodbye ('08): Everything about the 2008 All*Star Game was magical. It started with a pregame ceremony honoring 49 Hall of Famers and it ended five hours later on Michael Young's 15th-inning sac fly at 1:30 in the morning. It was quite a farewell to the 85-year-old original Yankee Stadium.
5. Reggie Jackson's HR Off the Light Tower ('71): From 1963-82, the National League went 19-1 in All*Star Games. The one AL win came at Tiger Stadium in 1971. There were six home runs in the game, but only one was historic. In the bottom of the third, Reggie Jackson, making the second of 14 career All*Star appearances, hit one OFF THE LIGHT TOWER! approximately 520 away.
4. Ted Williams Walk-Off HR ('41): Tiger Stadium's first All*Star Game was in 1941, aka the summer of Joe DiMaggio and Ted Williams. It was in the middle of DiMaggio's hitting streak, and he had a single, but it was Williams who authored the game's memorable moment. His three-run blast in the bottom of the ninth (with the AL trailing 5-4) was the first walk-off home run in All*Star game history.
3. Pedro Martinez & Ted Williams ('99): Ted Williams had one final All*Star moment in 1999, when he was the last member of the MLB All-Century Team introduced at Fenway Park. Every single person on the field, Hall of Famers and All*Stars alike, was simply in awe of his presence. Then it was another Hall of Famer from the home team who took over. Pedro Martinez struck out the side in the first and five total (three Hall of Famers, plus McGwire and Sosa the year after their great home run chase) over two innings of work in a 4-1 AL win.
2. Pete Rose Knocks Over Ray Fosse ('70): Arguably the most famous play in All*Star Game history is the game-winning run from the 1970 contest. It really was the embodiment of Pete Rose and his "Charlie Hustle" mentality, too. With two out in the bottom of the 12th, he rounded third and crashed into AL catcher Ray Fosse just as the ball got there. Fosse separated his shoulder on the play, and his career was never the same.
1. Fred Lynn's Grand Slam ('83): Fred Lynn celebrated the All*Star Game's 50th anniversary in style. In the third inning of the 1983 game, he came up with the bases loaded and deposited Atlee Hammaker's pitch into the right field seats. It was the first (and, so far, only) grand slam in All*Star Game history, and it was also the knockout punch that snapped the AL's 11-year All*Star losing streak. (PS: How is Fred Lynn not in the Hall of Fame?)
Friday, July 10, 2020
The Dominoes Begin Falling
The Ivy League was first back in March. They cancelled their basketball tournament before anyone else and withdrew their athletes from the NCAA Indoor Track & Field Championships. At first it seemed like an overreaction. As it turns out, they were simply ahead of the pack.
Even after the country came to a sudden halt and all NCAA sports came to an abrupt end, most people expected things would be back to normal by the fall. Or, maybe I should say, the "hope" was that things would be back to normal. Because the thought of the football season also being affected, especially after losing the March Madness dollars, was almost too much for Athletic Departments, conferences and TV networks to think about.
That time is rapidly approaching, however, and the landscape is still as uncertain as ever. Some schools plan on opening as scheduled in the fall (with appropriate measures, of course). Others will only have some students on campus. Still others will start later and finish the semester at Thanksgiving. And there are those that will conduct the fall semester entirely online.
So, needless to say, with all those different approaches to reopening, the fall season is obviously going to be impacted. The NCAA released its "return to play" protocols, but pretty much left it up to the individual schools and conferences. The Division II California Collegiate Athletic Association was the first to cancel the entire fall season conference-wide, but, for the most part, conferences left it up to their individual members to make their own decisions (and adjust accordingly if necessary).
A number of them (mostly at the lower levels) adjusted their fall schedules (starting later and ending earlier, fewer games, limiting travel, etc.), while a few announced that they were sitting out the fall season. Meanwhile, most of the big boys, still hopeful that they'd be able to have an uninterrupted football season, took a wait and see approach.
Until the Ivy League, once again, became the trendsetter. On Wednesday, the Ivy Council of Presidents announced its unanimous decision not to participate in any intercollegiate sports--including football--during the fall semester. They didn't officially "cancel" the season for fall teams. There's still a possibility that some may be able to compete in some capacity during the spring semester.
Just like in March, the Ivy League became the first major conference to make an official decision regarding the fall season. And, just like in March, other conference quickly followed the Ivy's lead.
Two Power 5 leagues--the Big Ten and Pac-12--will play conference-only schedules this fall. In all sports. That means no Notre Dame-Wisconsin game at Lambeau Field. That means no Iowa-Iowa State. That means no USC-Alabama season opener. It also means no guarantee games, which directly impacts those MAC and Sun Belt teams that rely on that pay day. No decision so far from the ACC, Big 12 or SEC, but you'd have to imagine they'll follow the lead.
What this means for Notre Dame is unclear. There's speculation that if the ACC goes to a conference-only football schedule, Notre Dame would be included since they're an ACC member in every other sport. They could potentially fill out the schedule by keeping the Navy game and playing other independents like BYU, but it's also possible that Notre Dame would end up playing only 5-6 games this season as a result of these conference-only schedules (marking perhaps the first time their football independence will really hurt them).
And I'm curious to see what that'll mean for bowl games. Would it extend to bowls (assuming bowls are able to be played in late December/early January)? And how do you choose bowl teams? Because somebody has to lose every game, so, without non-conference games to boost their records, conferences will have more bowl bids to fill than teams with .500 records.
There's a potentially much bigger impact than just football, though. Large cross country invitationals will have to be replaced with small dual meets against local conference members, which isn't exactly the highest-quality competition. And does conference-only mean the Power 5 schools won't participate in NCAA Tournaments? If so, that almost defeats the purpose of even having them.
Although, I have to say, the conference games only approach makes sense. There's no way to know what kind of testing protocols are in place at schools in other leagues. It's easier to set and enforce a conference-wide policy, though. And, if one school determines it's too risky to open (which is an NCAA requirement to return to play) and decides not to participate in a sport this fall, it will affect everyone else the same. The conference can simply adjust the schedule accordingly.
Everyone understands that this is a temporary solution to a problem that's much bigger than all of us, too. So, there's got to be some flexibility from everybody. No one wants to be in this situation. But they're all willing to do what they need to do in order to get this season played. Then, hopefully, things will go back to normal in 2021.
Of course, this is all assuming were able to have a 2020 season, which is by no means a certainty. And everyone's willing to do whatever it takes to make sure that happens. Because the other option--no college sports at all until 2021--is something nobody wants.
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